The shift of the Latino vote towards Democrats reopens a political battle in Texas

In five rural, predominantly Latino counties in South Texas, more voters participated in Tuesday’s Democratic primary than supported Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. This marks a significant shift after several cycles of eroding Hispanic support for the Democratic Party in South Texas, a region that has historically been predominantly Latino and one of its most consistent strongholds for over a century. However, the turnout and results of this week’s primaries suggest the pendulum may be swinging back, with Hispanics deeply dissatisfied with the policies and methods of the Trump administration.

The trend has implications that extend far beyond these primaries. Republicans redistricted electoral maps along partisan lines last year to gain five more seats in the House, convinced that their gains among Latino voters were here to stay. Indeed, several of the districts they hoped to win or secure are in the southern part of the state and have a Hispanic majority. But Tuesday’s mobilization threatens to derail those calculations.

The case of Zapata County, on the border and just south of the city of Laredo, within the Rio Grande Valley, as this entire region is known, perfectly reflects the situation. There, 94% of the population is Hispanic, and in the last decade, Trump went from receiving 33% of the vote in 2016 to 61% in 2024. The shift to the right was so pronounced that it served as a national warning about the fragility of the supposedly intrinsic Democratic bond with Latinos. However, this Tuesday, Zapata was among the five counties—along with Kenedy, Jim Hogg, Reeves, and Dimmit—where the Democratic primary surpassed the total turnout for Harris in November 2024.

That momentum and renewed political mobilization was particularly decisive for James Talarico’s victory in the Democratic Senate primary against Jasmine Crockett. Talarico won by about 22 points in the predominantly Latino counties, compared to a difference of just three points in the rest of the state.

The reasons that motivated so many Hispanics in South Texas to participate in this week’s primary are numerous and varied, but they are not a complete surprise considering recent polls, according to analysts and the Democratic candidates themselves who have appeared in the region.

Bobby Pulido, a Tejano music singer and Democratic primary winner in one of the southern districts, sums it up this way: “The Rio Grande Valley made its presence felt yesterday, and that says a lot. For years, people assumed Latino voters wouldn’t turn out in the primaries, but South Texas proved that wasn’t true. Our community is the embodiment of the American Dream: people who work hard and believe in opportunity. When families feel that dream isn’t being realized for them, they raise their voices. That’s what we saw yesterday, and it could be a sign of things to come, not just in South Texas, but across the country.”

Pulido, and several other Democratic candidates, demonstrated an understanding that the Latino vote, as shown by the unexpected support for Trump in 2024, has always been more volatile than many assumed; and now, it seems that the combination of persistent inflation, tariffs, and an immigration policy perceived as excessive has once again pushed this electorate toward the Democratic Party.

The Republicans’ redistricting strategy was based on precisely the opposite idea: that the Latino realignment was structural and permanent. For example, District 35, currently represented in Washington by a Democrat, was redrawn to combine predominantly Hispanic areas of San Antonio and Austin, with the hope that it would flip to Republican hands in 2026. However, the Democratic primary in that district attracted 7,500 more voters than the Republican primary, even though Trump won it by 10 points in 2024.

While the new maps were projected to give Republicans five new seats on paper, now it’s being said they’ll be lucky to gain one or two more. For Democrats, the best-case scenario would be retaining two of the border districts; a successful run by Bobby Pulido, who would win back the district the party lost for the first time in 2022; and a strong showing in the new 35th District. If that happens, the Republicans’ aggressive redistricting strategy would barely result in a marginal gain.

Even so, it’s too early for Democrats to declare victory. Local leaders have admitted after the vote counts that the surge is more a reflection of disapproval of the president than a renewed organic enthusiasm for the Democratic brand. And they acknowledge that their grassroots organizing in large, remote counties remains insufficient.

Furthermore, the ultimate extent of the comeback will also depend on the Republican rivals. At the Senate level, for example, Senator John Cornyn has demonstrated a certain ability to compete in Latino areas in the past and could prove a stronger opponent than Attorney General Ken Paxton if he wins the Republican runoff in May. And, in general, the Republican candidates have eight months to adapt their messaging to what the electorate has expressed this week; although within a party so completely dominated by Trumpism, even this is not a certainty.

For now, the results have turned what some considered a consolidated trend into a new unknown. The Latino vote, decisive in Texas and other states with competitive districts and new maps, has once again proven to be a swing vote.

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