Dispute with US has weakened the morale of Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Kursk

There are multiple videos on Vasil’s phone, but he wants to show two in particular: the first shows him dressed in combat fatigues, making a fool of himself in the mayor’s office of a town in the Russian province of Kursk. Sitting at the mayor’s desk, Vasil exultantly pretends to give orders and attend to the papers left behind after the town was occupied by Ukrainian forces. It’s from August 2024, when a surprise offensive by Kyiv captured some 1,300 square kilometers of this Russian region. The second video is from a few weeks ago, and it shows this emaciated Ukrainian soldier with the after-effects of an explosion. Ukrainian troops now control only 20% of the land they conquered from the enemy, and all traces of the initial optimism are gone.

Vasil and two of his friends linked to the Ukrainian army are from the city of Sumy, in northern Ukraine, just 35 kilometers (22 miles) from Kursk province. Sumy is the rearguard of the Ukrainian offensive on Russian soil, an operation that, according to their assessment on Monday, “has little time left, perhaps a few days or weeks.” Ukrainian military sources consulted on condition of anonymity say that circumstances have arisen on the front that cannot be explained without a sudden change in the resources available to them until now. Only the high command and brigade commanders know what is happening.

The Kursk incursion was intended, according to its main supporter, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to provide Ukraine with another card in future negotiations with Vladimir Putin: proof that Russian territory is also vulnerable, and a piece of it to exchange for Ukrainian regions occupied by the invader.

What Zelenskiy didn’t count on was that Donald Trump would return to the U.S. presidency, acting more as a rival to Ukraine than as an ally. The Ukrainian president had resisted granting Trump the right to exploit 50% of the country’s mineral resources and his demand for a truce with Putin without a written U.S. commitment to deterrent defensive measures against Russia. The Republican magnate responded by temporarily suspending the transfer of U.S. weapons and intelligence information to Ukraine in early March.

U.S. aid will be restored immediately following negotiations with Ukraine on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia, but it may be too late for the Ukrainian contingent in Kursk: Kyiv’s troops on Russian territory have borne the brunt of the U.S. blockade, according to multiple anonymous sources quoted by Ukrainian and international media, including EL PAÍS. The extent of the damage caused by this interruption of aid varies depending on the version. Secrecy is a priority, and the Ukrainian General Staff has severely limited the work of the press in Sumy province.

“Collapse of the Ukrainian front”

The numbers speak for themselves: the Ukrainian Armed Forces had lost 20% of the territory they still held in Kursk in February, according to data from the Deep State Map analysis group; in the last 10 days, they have lost more than 60% of what they held at the beginning of the month. The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S. military think tank, describes what happened as “a collapse of the Ukrainian front” and concludes that this, along with the suspension of U.S. aid, is hardly a coincidence.

Worse still for Ukrainian interests, Russian forces are close to flanking between 6,000 and 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers. According to Vasil’s group, the goal now is to evacuate these fighters, and the safest way to do so is on foot because traveling the highway connecting Sumy to Kursk is now “virtually impossible, [as it is] dominated by Russian drones, their aerial bombs, and artillery.”

Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, stated on Monday that there is “no risk” of being encircled and that he has ordered a reinforcement of the Ukrainian contingent in Kursk. Syrskyi did not mention what effect the Pentagon blockade may or may not have had. A spokesperson for his General Staff stated that it is a “very sensitive” matter that they will not comment on.

“The risk of our troops being cut off is very high; communication between the commanders in Sumy and their men in Russia has been cut off,” says Igor, a captain in a Territorial Defense Forces brigade. The only road connecting Sumy with the Sudzha region, the largest municipality captured by Ukraine in the Kursk region, is controlled from the air by Russia, and the chances of crossing it without being hit by a drone are only 20%, according to Igor.

This newspaper met with a group of 20 soldiers from the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade in a Ukrainian village 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) from Kursk on Tuesday. Boroda is the code name for one of them: “We left Kursk on foot, we walked 40 kilometers, Russian drones were chasing us. I can’t explain what I experienced, I have nightmares.”

Captain Igor, a 60-year-old combat veteran, says that last week there was a large movement of Russian troops that was only detected when they were already on top Ukrainian positions, something that had not happened before. “The Russian movement in Kursk came as a surprise to us. We only received information about the offensive when they were already in front of us,” explained a Ukrainian officer with the U.S. military analysis group The War Zone. “I don’t know the reason, but the truth is that the information is arriving too late.”

This information includes satellite imagery tracking enemy troop concentrations, their movements, and the logistical supplies. Both the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, part of the U.S. Department of Defense, and the private U.S. company Maxar have confirmed that they have suspended the transmission of satellite images to Kyiv at the request of the White House. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s representative in the negotiations with Ukraine, stated on Monday that intelligence information for defense purposes, such as Russian aircraft taking off to strike Ukrainian cities, had not been suspended, but that intelligence used for attacks had been.

The Economist reported last week that the Pentagon had also imposed restrictions on the use of Himars medium-range precision missiles. Vasil’s group, although not part of an artillery brigade, claims that Himars units operating toward Kursk have been ordered not to fire at targets in Russia.

Best Russian soldiers

Roman is a senior officer in the intelligence services of the Ukrainian army. He meets with EL PAÍS on a bench overlooking a lake in the city of Sumy, a discreet location, to explain why he believes the interruption of U.S. assistance has not been as decisive in the retreat from Kursk: “The most significant thing is that the Russians have deployed some of their best soldiers to Kursk in the last month; they have withdrawn them from Donetsk province, as well as their best drone units.” The Russian offensive on the Donetsk front, in Ukrainian strongholds such as Torestsk, Chasiv Yar, and Pokrovsk, has slowed in recent weeks.

The Kremlin also has the support of some 10,000 professional North Korean soldiers, who are taking on some of the most risky assault operations, but at the cost of numerous casualties.

“Ninety-five percent of the information we have on enemy targets within a 50-kilometer radius is ours, Ukraine,” Roman explains. “Up to 150 kilometers, the enemy’s knowledge is partly ours, either through infiltrators or captured Russians. Beyond those 150 kilometers, it’s a phantom zone for which we depend on the U.S. and NATO.” Roman is convinced that the rapid Russian advances of the last 10 days cannot be explained by the suspension of American intelligence: “What the enemy was preparing came before. But from now on, if something similar happens, and the American blackout continues, it will undoubtedly be related.”

There is no specific knowledge of what happened among the Ukrainian troops, but intuition is important to servicemen like Dima, another private with years of experience who was evacuated from Kursk: “What happened can only be understood if we were blinded far from the front.”

A State Border Guard officer believes the U.S. impact may not have been that decisive: “The main effect is on the morale of our men, because everyone follows the news, and we have the feeling that they’re going to leave us stranded.” Boroda, exhausted after his 40-kilometer exodus to save his life, says that Zelenskiy is also to blame: “If you already know what Trump is like and you depend on him, why are you standing up to him? Now we’re going to be really screwed.”

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