Ukraine consolidates Kursk offensive as Moscow continues to advance on the Donetsk front

Kyiv is continuing to press its surprise offensive in the Russian province of Kursk with a large number of troops, armored vehicles, and weapons deployed. Meanwhile, 350 kilometers (217 miles) further south, in the Ukrainian region of Donbas, alarms have been raised by the rapid Russian advance on the city of Pokrovsk, a key base for the Ukrainian defense in Donetsk province. The authorities of the municipality on Thursday called on the population to start evacuating in view of the approach of the invading forces.

Ukrainian military resources invested in the operation to seize Russian territory are exceptional, with companies from at least 12 mechanized and assault brigades, dozens of NATO armored vehicles, and thousands of troops. The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to advance, albeit more slowly than at the start of the offensive on August 6, and are now moving across enemy territory at a rate of about two kilometers (1.2 miles) per day, according to Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Ukrainian army commander in chief.

The Ukrainian military leadership claims to be in control of more than 80 localities, mostly small villages, in a territory of more than 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles). Syrskyi announced Thursday that a military administration has been set up for the occupied Russian territories, “to maintain law and order, and ensure the needs of the population.” General Eduard Moskalyov will head this command.

Kyiv digs in

The efforts invested in the Kursk incursion and the fact that defensive lines are already being erected indicate that Kyiv has no intention of leaving Russian soil in the short term. Most Ukrainian and foreign analysts agree that the operation can serve as a resource for future negotiations with Moscow to end the conflict. Another objective is the possibility of creating political destabilization and popular discontent against Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Another goal of the Kursk operation is to draw Russian reinforcements away from the eastern front in Donetsk and the southern front in Zaporizhzhia province. Military personnel of the 80th Assault Brigade who are fighting in the Kursk region consulted by EL PAÍS confirm that this has not happened yet, and that the enemy contingent they are facing are still recruits with little experience. Vitali Vitsak, spokesman for the 77th Separate Airborne Brigade, explained on Thursday to Ukrainian Channel 24 television that the transfer of Russian units from the fronts in the south and east has been much less pronounced than expected.

Time will tell whether the gamble to invade Russia’s Kursk region, a maneuver promoted by President Volodymir Zelenskiy, will turn the tide of the war in Kyiv’s favor. The move may also backfire if Moscow maintains its rapid advance on Donetsk. Russian regiments have progressed 13 kilometers (eight miles) in the last two months in the direction of Pokrovsk. They are now only 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) from the strategic town. The advance has also been significant toward Toretsk, with invading forces already in the vicinity of the town, but Pokrovsk is the main target.

Despite the optimism that the military success in Kursk has generated in recent days among the Ukrainian public and media, as of Friday there have been reports about the deteriorating situation in Pokrovsk. Since the offensive in Kursk began, Ivan Sekach, spokesman for the Ukrainian 110th Mechanized Brigade, told Politico: “I would say things have become worse in our part of the front [Pokrovsk]; We have been getting even less ammo than before and Russians are pushing.”

Prisoner exchange

The Ukrainian campaign in Kursk has left Kyiv with hundreds of Russian prisoners of war in its custody. The Center for Defense Strategies, a Ukrainian military analysis institute, puts the number of captured soldiers at over 2,000. Zelenskiy’s office has already made initiating talks with Russia over the exchange of Ukrainian prisoners a priority. Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defense Ministry’s intelligence services, explained on Thursday that the priority was to secure the return of civilians incarcerated in Russian prisons and combatants imprisoned since the Donbas conflict in 2014.

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February 2022 there have been 54 prisoner exchanges. Kyiv reports that more than 3,400 Ukrainian citizens have been released. Prisoner exchanges are the only operation in which representatives of the two countries have at some point had direct communication, Ukrainian government sources explained to this newspaper in June, mainly to coordinate the date and physical location of the exchange. Negotiations on the persons benefiting from the exchanges are usually carried out with the mediation of third-party countries, with the United Arab Emirates playing a leading role so far in 2024.

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