Zelenskiy shelves peace plan to accommodate Trump’s dialogue with Putin

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has frequently resorted to coups d’effect in the nearly three years of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, putting forward ambitious plans that were meant to keep public spirits high and secure international support for his country’s defense. One of these plans was his Peace Formula, a 10-point initiative presented last year and which he was now expecting to formalize with his allies to negotiate an end to the war with Moscow. But Kyiv has postponed the summit that was to seek agreement on a common position because of the risk that it would end in failure.

Zelenskiy’s Peace Formula, on paper, has met with the support of the European Union and the majority of its member states, in addition to the United States, the United Kingdom, and other countries such as Canada and Japan. Experts consulted by EL PAÍS believe, however, that his points are maximalist, far removed from the geopolitical reality and the difficult situation on the battlefield. The arrival in the White House of Donald Trump, who has stated his priority to end the conflict at all costs, and the need for China, Russia’s ally, to pressure Vladimir Putin to open up to dialogue have further undermined the plan’s chances of success.

The plan was discussed in June 2024 at a first peace summit in Switzerland in which about 100 countries participated. The initiative addresses issues such as the territorial integrity of the invaded country, energy security, the creation of a tribunal for war crimes committed by Russia, and the return of imprisoned Ukrainian citizens. Zelenskiy’s goal was for a second, final meeting to be held last November, just after the U.S. elections. But his Foreign Ministry has acknowledged that the meeting has been postponed. “It is clear that holding the event just for the sake of holding it is unnecessary. We need something that will be effective, and we are working on it,” Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Georgi Tiji said on December 27.

Numerous Ukrainian political analysts have written off the next meeting and the formula outlined by Zelenskiy as shelved. “The first peace summit ended in nothing. And if it did anything it made the situation worse because it showed a decrease in support for Ukraine compared to 2022, and the consolidation of the group of countries that more or less share Russia’s position,” Mikola Kapitonenko, a professor at the Institute of International Relations at Kyiv National University, told Ukrainian media outlet Telegraf on Monday. “After this,” Kapitonenko continued, “negotiations for a second summit have no hope [of prospering] anymore.”

Zelenskiy’s Peace Formula, based on the principles of sovereignty laid out in the UN Charter, seeks overwhelming support from the international community for the Ukrainian position at the negotiating table. A total of 95 states and international organizations signed the final declaration issued at the first summit. But what seemed to be a success was received in Ukraine as a defeat, because it showed that major players on the global chessboard, such as China, Brazil, India, and Mexico, did not support the document. The summit was also marked from the outset by the absence of then-U.S. president Joe Biden, who chose instead to attend a fundraiser for his election campaign. Zelenskiy reacted angrily to Biden’s decision not to attend, even accusing him of playing into Putin’s hands.

Peace summit “hardly salvagable”

Ivan Gomza, professor of political science at the Kyiv School of Economics, lists the mistakes he believes the Ukrainian authorities made at the first summit: the non-involvement or “lukewarm support” of key players; “miscalculation between maximalist goals, such as the demand to liberate all occupied territories, including Crimea, and military possibilities”; and the rhetoric of “decolonizing” Ukraine from Russian influence, which was frowned upon by countries of the Global South. “Considering the complexity of all this,” Gomza says, “it was a good idea to tacitly bury the plan. With the current situation of division between the countries of the North and the South, the summit is hardly salvagable.”

Gomza adds that the return of the Republican president to power in the U.S. makes it even more advisable to change strategy: “Trump adds reasons to be cautious about the viability of the summit and its possible resolutions. Only if it has a real impact, with Washington, Brussels, and other powers of the Global South signing on, would the Peace Formula and the summit make sense,” he says.

Zelenskiy spoke at length about future negotiations in his speech at the Davos Forum on Tuesday, but did not mention his formula. He insisted that “a just and lasting peace” must be found, and security guarantees for his country that would deter Russia from attacking again put in place. The Ukrainian leader also warned about the influence that Washington and Beijing will have on the outcome of the war in the face of what he sees as a loss of European influence. “Right now, it’s not clear whether Europe will even have a seat at the table when the war against our country ends. We see how much influence China has on Russia,” Zelenskiy said. “But will President Trump listen to Europe, or will he negotiate with Russia and China without Europe?”

Trump revealed Tuesday that on his first day in office he demanded Chinese President Xi Jinping use his influence to bring Putin to the negotiating table. “The Trump administration is probably not going to feel constrained by [Zelenskiy’s] Peace Formula, or by any document agreed to at a future summit, unless Russia supports it. Trump and his team want to end the war and are not too concerned about what happens with Ukraine,” says Paul D’Anieri, an expert on Russia and Ukraine at the University of California Riverside. “Unfortunately for Ukraine,” he continues, “bilateral negotiations between the U.S. and Russia will probably play as big a role as negotiations in which Ukraine takes a direct part.”

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