Trump’s victory rocks the EU amid the rise of the far right and populism

Europe is a little more alone on the international stage as of Wednesday. The victory of the Republican populist Donald Trump in the U.S. elections has shaken the European Union. The return of the unpredictable magnate to the White House has major implications for the security of the EU, which depends heavily on the American umbrella and which may be left as almost the only significant support for Ukraine in the face of the Russian invasion. With Trump, an escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing is looming, with consequences for the EU bloc, and an increase in tariffs that could take a heavy toll on the member states. The euro has already suffered and is losing around 2% against the dollar, which is rising against all currencies.

The consequences are global, but in an EU where the far right and populism are on the rise in the post-pandemic era — as seen in the European elections in June, but also in the Dutch, French, and Austrian elections — the tycoon’s victory could fuel an extremist wave at a time when the two main members of the EU, Germany and France, have very weakened governments. One of Trump’s biggest European allies, the Hungarian national-conservative populist Viktor Orbán, the EU’s wayward partner and closest to the Kremlin among its leaders, is already preparing to uncork the champagne, as he announced a few weeks ago. “The biggest comeback in U.S. political history!” he said on social media on Wednesday. “A much-needed victory for the world!” the Hungarian prime minister added.

Orbán will host European leaders at a summit on Thursday and Friday in Budapest, where the Republican’s victory and the challenges it entails for the old continent will begin to be addressed. On Thursday there will be a meeting of the countries that form the European Political Community (EPC), the forum that brings together the EU and the European states that do not belong to the bloc. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is expected to attend. He has already rushed to congratulate Trump and to comment that he hopes Washington will maintain its economic and military support, which had already become increasingly difficult under the Biden administration.

“We are facing a moment of great uncertainty that could mark the future of the European continent, but this new Trump victory could be a wake-up call for the Union to stop outsourcing its security and to stop depending so much on its American ally,” said a senior EU source. The tycoon has even threatened to pull the U.S. out of NATO, but that scenario is extremely difficult.

European leaders are anxiously looking ahead to the next four years, with the White House occupied by Trump, who has maintained a relationship with Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin and promised to end the war in Ukraine before even taking office. At the same time, they know that the United States is a key partner for Europe in energy, trade, and security. The global situation is extremely volatile, with the conflict raging in the Middle East and the near certainty that North Korean soldiers are already on Russian soil and have gone into combat in Ukraine.

In this context, pragmatism will prevail, like that of French President Emmanuel Macron. “Ready to work together as we did for four years. With your convictions and mine. With respect and ambition. For more peace and prosperity,” he wrote on the social network X, owned by Trump ally Elon Musk. Macron, one of the EU’s lame ducks, the weakened leaders who are in their last term, spoke on Wednesday by phone with another European leader whose position is also fragile due to the internal problems of his government, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, about how to preserve European interests.

“The EU and the US are more than just allies,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on the same social network. “We are bound by a true partnership between our people, uniting 800 million citizens. So let’s work together on a strong transatlantic agenda that keeps delivering for them,” added the German conservative, who is about to begin a second term.

Brussels and most European capitals have been preparing for months for possible scenarios after the U.S. elections and drawing up contingency plans. The return of Trump — who will turn his focus toward the Indo-Pacific region and thus distract much of the attention Washington has had on Europe, which will lose out in terms of security — was one of them. But the New York magnate will also return strong and vindicated, with control of the Senate and, foreseeably, of the House of Representatives. The Republican has announced that he wants to raise tariffs on European products. In Brussels, this increase is expected to be 20%, but it could go further. It is also likely to affect the GDP of the member states unevenly. The trade war with China would also have secondary effects in Europe, since Beijing could divert part of its trade flow to the EU, which would affect European manufacturers and products.

The next few months until Trump’s inauguration will be crucial for the EU. Brussels hopes to be able to forge relations with his future team in order to soften the blow, and perhaps even reach an agreement that will avoid a trade escalation. Nobody knows what a second term for the unpredictable Republican will entail. The first was disruptive, but in many respects it ended with some kind of transaction with European partners. The EU institutions are confident that this will also be the pattern for the coming years: it would be the best-case scenario.

There will also be defense trade-offs on the table, now that the EU is looking for money under the sofa cushions to continue supporting Kyiv while facing Hungary’s vetoes. The return to the negotiating table to end Russia’s war against Ukraine may now come more quickly, pushed by Trump.

Beyond these elements, the EU’s challenge is to outline a coordinated reaction and an action plan toward the new administration among the 27 member states. It will not be easy with partners like Orbán in the bloc, but also with the Slovak populist Robert Fico or even the far-right Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has had a good relationship with the Republican team and with the populist magnate Elon Musk, who is expected to be handed an important position in the next U.S. administration. “Good job, President Trump!” Meloni said on X. The far-right leader could try to establish herself as one of the bridges between Europe and the United States, although Italy’s lack of investment in defense — to which it dedicates less than 2% of GDP, below the NATO commitment — could make that difficult.

Meanwhile, Trump’s victory will continue to fuel the extremist wave in Europe. The entire far right in the Union has already rushed to congratulate him and hopes to vindicate the policies they share; the harsh discourse against immigration, against sexual and reproductive rights, against abortion and, more generally, against the umbrella of the welfare state as it is established in Europe.

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