Donald Trump returns to the White House

Donald Trump’s apocalyptic, authoritarian and xenophobic message has resonated with a large part of the American electorate. The former president and Republican candidate will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States on January 20 at 12 noon after clearing the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the presidency. He thus becomes the first president to return to office since Grover Cleveland in 1892.

Trump has benefited from citizen frustration after the sharp price hikes of the last four years and the increase in irregular immigration. The Republican candidate has shown himself immune to scandals and has become the first convicted felon to be elected president, which will also clear his judicial future. The new triumph of a populist, charismatic demagogue is an earthquake for the future of the United States and the world.

Trump has clearly won the election, both in the Electoral College and apparently also in the popular vote, although the count has not yet been completed. For the third time, Trump has exceeded poll expectations.

While he was still short of four electoral votes to officially be able to declare himself the winner, Trump addressed a crowd of cheering supporters in Florida and told them that this moment will “help our country heal.” He also said that “we’ve achieved the most incredible political thing.”

The result is a resounding failure for the Democratic Party, which has also lost control of the Senate. Pressure from congressional leaders after his disastrous June debate against Trump led Joe Biden to withdraw from the race and pass the baton to his vice president, Kamala Harris. Part of Biden’s reluctance to step aside was because he did not believe Harris, who at the time was more unpopular than himself, could defeat his great political foe as he himself did in 2020. The new candidate awakened an initial wave of enthusiasm that has come to nothing.

Uncertain times

Trump’s victory opens a period of uncertainty in the United States and the world. The former president has embarked on an authoritarian path, alluding to his political rivals as the “enemy within,” and has even threatened to use the military against them. The system has mechanisms to defend itself against abuses of power, but the Republicans have also taken the Senate (the House is still up for grabs) and the Supreme Court has a conservative supermajority of six to three. The Democrats, led by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, have repeatedly warned of the risk to democracy that Trump’s return to the White House would entail.

The former president has promised a mass deportation of illegal immigrants. The xenophobic and often hyperbolic message has worked for him after an uptick in illegal arrivals during Biden’s four years in office. Trump spoke of migrants “poisoning the blood” of Americans, accused some of them of eating dogs and cats, and directly linked them to criminality.

His return could also alter the world’s geopolitical chessboard. Trump embraces isolationism with his “America First” policy. The Republican is in tune with dictators such as Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, or with far-right leaders such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Argentina’s Javier Milei.

In September, he met diplomatically with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, but many fear that his promise to “end the war in one day” will force Kyiv to accept concessions to Russia under threat of being left without military assistance that many Republicans openly question and that is essential (unless Europe makes a greater effort) for Ukraine to resist. Washington’s commitment to NATO members and other allies could be in jeopardy. Regarding Israel, Trump has already announced that he is giving Benjamin Netanyahu a free hand to “do whatever he has to do.”

The Republican could also spark a trade war. He proposes imposing reciprocal tariffs on U.S. imports equal to the rates that trading partners impose on U.S. exports (usually higher). This would be added to (or overlapped by) a universal basic tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports. For China, Trump has promised a general tariff of 60% and higher on some products. In addition, he has promised that he will put tariffs of 100% on cars imported from Mexico. Trump already imposed tariffs during his presidency that Biden has maintained, or even raised in some cases, but the current proposal is of a much larger magnitude, which could effectively end trade with China and trigger retaliation from the European Union.

Although Biden leaves behind a thriving economy, with the unemployment rate near its lowest level and inflation finally under control, Trump has taken advantage of citizens’ frustration over the price increases of over 20% over the last four years, which have taken a toll on voters’ mood. This inflation forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, thereby also making housing more expensive. Now that inflation is close to the price stability target, the central bank has begun to lower interest rates. In fact, after the half-point cut in September, it is expected to approve a new cut this Thursday.

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