Donald Trump closes in on the White House with victories in battleground states

Donald Trump’s apocalyptic, authoritarian and xenophobic message has resonated with a large part of the American electorate. The former president and Republican candidate for the presidential elections has positioned himself with a clear advantage over his rival, the Democrat Kamala Harris, in the ongoing vote count. Trump has 267 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House and is leading in key races left to be called, including Michigan and Wisconsin.

Trump has won Georgia and North Carolina. And with 5% of the votes still to be counted, the Associated Press, the most reliable agency when it comes to election results, has officially confirmed Trump’s victory in the swing state of Pennsylvania with 51% of the vote to his rival’s 48.1%. The AP’s race call showed Minnesota going to Harris. If he were to win the election, Trump would become the first president to return to office since Grover Cleveland in 1892. In addition, he would also be the first convicted felon to be elected president.

While still short of four electoral votes to officially be able to declare himself the winner, Trump addressed a crowd of cheering supporters in Florida and told them that this moment will “help our country heal.” He also said that “we’ve achieved the most incredible political thing.”

The dollar rose sharply on the markets, anticipating Trump’s victory on an intense and exciting night that began without a clear favorite in the polls. Kamala Harris still has some chances of defending herself in the states of Wisconsin and Michigan. However, she is not assured of victory in any of them.

Election night began to smile on Trump with the closing of the polling stations in Georgia, where Joe Biden won in 2020 by less than 12,000 votes. It soon became clear that the Republican’s results were better than four years ago in almost all the counties.

In North Carolina, the vote count has been more volatile. At first it seemed that Harris might have some chances, but as the ballots were processed, the situation has become similar to that of Georgia and Trump’s advantage was confirmed, with the Associated Press calling it a win for the Republican in that state.

Even in Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump appears ahead in a like-for-like comparison with the 2020 results. In addition, he is a clear favorite in Arizona and also has a chance in Nevada. Trump could end up taking the seven swing states. Although the results are still provisional, the vote count points towards the “big win” that the Republican said he was going to achieve very early in the evening.

Uncertain times

A Trump victory would open a period of uncertainty in the United States and the world. The former president has embarked on an authoritarian path, alluding to his political rivals as the “enemy within,” and has even threatened to use the military against them. The system has mechanisms to defend itself against abuses of power, but the Republicans have also taken the Senate (the House is still up for grabs) and the Supreme Court has a conservative supermajority of six to three. The Democrats, led by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, have repeatedly warned of the risk to democracy that Trump’s return to the White House would entail.

The former president has promised a mass deportation of illegal immigrants if he returns to office. The xenophobic and often hyperbolic message has worked for him after an uptick in illegal arrivals during Biden’s four years in office. Trump spoke of migrants “poisoning the blood” of Americans, accused some of them of eating dogs and cats, and directly linked them to criminality.

His return would also alter the world’s geopolitical chessboard. Trump embraces isolationism with his “America First” policy. The Republican is in tune with dictators such as Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, or with far-right leaders such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Argentina’s Javier Milei.

In September, he met diplomatically with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, but many fear that his promise to “end the war in one day” will force Kyiv to accept concessions to Russia under threat of being left without military assistance that many Republicans openly question and that is essential (unless Europe makes a greater effort) for Ukraine to resist. The commitment to NATO members and other allies would be in jeopardy under the Republican. Regarding Israel, Trump has already announced that he is giving Netanyahu a free hand to “do whatever he has to do.”

The Republican could also spark a trade war. He proposes imposing reciprocal tariffs on U.S. imports equal to the rates that trading partners impose on U.S. exports (usually higher). This would be added to (or overlapped by) a universal basic tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports. For China, Trump has promised a general tariff of 60% and higher on some products. In addition, he has promised that he will put tariffs of 100% on cars imported from Mexico. Trump already imposed tariffs during his presidency that Biden has maintained, or even raised in some cases, but the current proposal is of a much larger magnitude, which could effectively end trade with China and trigger retaliation from the European Union.

Although Joe Biden leaves behind a thriving economy, with the unemployment rate near its lowest level and inflation finally under control, Trump has taken advantage of citizens' frustration over the price increases of over 20% over the last four years, which have taken a toll on voters' mood. This inflation forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, thereby also making housing more expensive. Now that inflation is close to the price stability target, the central bank has begun to lower interest rates. In fact, after the half-point cut in September, it is expected to approve a new cut this Thursday.

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