Republicans gain control of Senate and aim to retain House

The battle for Congress has been somewhat overshadowed by the presidential election, but its importance is enormous in determining how much room for maneuver the new president will have. The vote count is expected to last for days, or even weeks, especially in the House of Representatives, but Republicans have already secured control of the Senate, with at least 52 of the 100 seats. For now, it is still up in the air which party will secure a majority in the lower house, but Donald Trump’s party aims to retain it.

In these elections, 34 of the 100 senators will be elected, who have a six-year term and whose composition is renewed by thirds every two years. Currently, the correlation of forces favored the Democrats by a narrow majority of 51 seats (counting independents) against 49 Republicans. The seats up for renewal now are those elected in 2018, in a mid-term legislative election for Trump in which the Republicans were severely punished. Thus, of the 34 senators at stake, 23 belong to the Democrats and their allies, while only 11 were in Republican hands.

Moreover, of the 23 Democratic seats, three belonged to theoretically “red” states, with a majority of Republican voters. Trump’s party has conquered all three. First, West Virginia, where incumbent Senator Joe Manchin resigned to run for re-election. He will be replaced by Republican Jim Justice, who won with enormous clarity. Bernie Moreno has taken his seat from Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio. And Tim Sheehy has beaten Jon Tester, Senator for Montana, another heavily Republican state.

As if that weren’t enough, Democrats have five other seats in play in “purple” states, which sometimes lean toward one party or the other. They coincide with five of the states considered decisive in the presidential race: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. In all of them, their seats are threatened, although Democrat Ruben Gallego appears to be ahead of Kari Lake in Arizona. The most likely range points to Republicans holding between 52 and 56 of the 100 Senate seats, a clear victory.

Republicans were not gambling on renewing any of their seats in hostile territory. Rick Scott has comfortably retained the Florida seat, which was one of the Democratic targets, and Ted Cruz has prevailed over Collin Alred, the other seat up for grabs. Deb Fischer also retained her Nebraska seat against independent Dan Osborn.

Control of the lower house

In addition, during Tuesday’s elections, the 435 seats in the House of Representatives, which until now was controlled by the Republicans, albeit with a narrow majority, will be completely renewed as they are every two years. There are many seats that are assured as they correspond to clearly Republican or Democratic districts. The battle is on in about 70 competitive districts, but the outcome will be delayed for days or weeks, especially in California’s competitive districts, where mail-in ballot waiting times and recount procedures make the canvass very slow.

In any case, the apparent good prognosis for Trump in the popular vote in the presidential election and the partial results of the legislative elections themselves allow the Republicans to aspire to retain their majority in the House of Representatives as well. This would make things easier for the former president if he returns to the White House. The tax cuts and immigration reforms he has promised must be approved by both chambers, while the Senate has the power to ratify appointments.

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