What’s a Kennedy worth to Trump?

Donald Trump’s campaign announced Tuesday that it will add two former Democrats — Robert F. Kennedy and former Hawaii congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard — to its transition team. Both politicians publicly endorsed the Republican candidate last week. Trump is bringing them on board 70 days before the November 5 election in the hope that both can boost his chances in the very close race against Kamala Harris. But analysts are skeptical that the former president’s new allies will be able to push him to a decisive victory in the fall.

“I’ve been asked to go on to the transition team to help pick the people who will be running the government,” Kennedy Jr. said in a lengthy interview with Tucker Carlson on Monday. The group is choosing the people that will fill some 4,000 federal Cabinet positions, if the Republicans triumph over Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. It is the new assignment for RFK Jr., an environmental lawyer and famous anti-vaccine activist, who abandoned his independent run for president to join Trump’s campaign.

The transition team includes the president’s sons, Eric and Don Jr., as well as two of the main donors to the candidacy: billionaire financier Howard Lutnick, from the Cantor Fitzgerald firm, and Linda McMahon, the co-founder of the wrestling company World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE). Vice presidential candidate JD Vance will also play a role in the decisions.

“It’s probably worth about 1% for Trump and that 1% could be everything if it’s in the swing states,” Frank Luntz, a conservative pollster who often works for the Republican Party, said in regard to Kennedy’s endorsement. “The reason why Kennedy was drawing 10, 12, even as high as 14% is because he was taking votes away from Joe Biden. Joe Biden’s gone. Kamala Harris has replaced him, and [Kennedy’s] vote collapsed down to about 4 or 5%,” he told the conservative network News Nation.

The Washington Post’s polling aggregator still puts Trump ahead of Harris in four of the seven swing states that will decide the November 5 election. The former president is ahead in North Carolina and Arizona by one point; in Nevada by two points; and in Georgia he has the widest lead, by three points. The newspaper recalls that the polls underestimated Trump’s support in some swing states in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Harris is narrowly ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In all of them, by three points or less.

ABC’s FiveThirtyEight estimates that Kennedy — the son of former attorney general Robert Kennedy and nephew of former president John F. Kennedy — will have minimal impact on the Republican campaign. Analysts believe that the lawyer may have some appeal, albeit marginal, among white, male and older voters, a demographic that already largely supports Trump. A recent analysis by EL PAÍS suggested a similar outcome.

The polling aggregator indicates that if Kennedy Jr. is removed from the equation, Kamala Harris rises by 1.3% in the polls, largely thanks to potential Asian, Black and Hispanic voters. Trump, on the other hand, increases his support by 1.5% if the third candidate is eliminated, as he consolidates his support among rural voters and people over 30. Nicole Shanahan, RFK Jr.’s vice presidential candidate, said last week that they were considering dropping out of the race because they did not want to draw votes away from Trump.

Kennedy spent 16 months campaigning for the presidency. He started by competing in the Democratic primaries, given his family’s legacy with the party. The environmental lawyer wanted to challenge Joe Biden for the nomination. But after making his calculations, he opted to run as an independent, swearing he would never join Trump. His ambition was overshadowed by a string of scandals: from accusations of sexual harassment and racist remarks to a strange episode that occurred in Central Park 10 years ago. Having his name appear on the ballot in all 50 states also came up against many stumbling blocks.

Tulsi Gabbard’s impact on the Trump campaign is less certain. The former congresswoman for Hawaii’s second district left the Democratic Party in 2022, saying the institution was controlled by an “elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness.”

Gabbard served in Congress from 2013 to 2021. In 2020, she participated in the Democratic primaries for the presidential nomination, but failed to secure enough support. Her decision to leave the Democrats made her very popular among conservatives in the United States. Robert F. Kennedy even asked her to be his running mate on his independent ticket. Gabbard told him that she “respectfully declined.” Now, the two will work together for Trump.

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