US polls: Harris ahead of Trump for third week in a row
The Democratic candidate is the favorite for most pollsters, but the race against the former president is still very close
Just 21 days after turning the polls around, Kamala Harris is still ahead of Donald Trump in the race for the White House. Over the past few weeks, the Democratic candidate has been improving her position percentage point by percentage point, according to polls compiled by the RealClearPolitics (RCP) aggregator. She now has a 48.4% chance of winning the presidency, compared to Trump with 46.9%.
For almost a year, President Joe Biden had been unable to reach this figure. When he announced he was dropping out of the race on July 21, he was 3.1 points behind former president Trump. The Republican’s court appearances over cases involving fraud and electoral interference, among others, have done little to impact his performance in the polls.
Nor has the withdrawal of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or his decision to support Trump appear to have had a significant impact on the race. Although there were initial fears of a vote shift, polls by The New York Times show that it is not clear which candidate will benefit from his withdrawal and that Kennedy supporters are less likely to vote in November.
Favorite for 11 pollsters and in 23 states
Harris is the favorite to win according to 11 of the 15 polling firms, whose results are compiled by RCP. Polls give her a lead of up to 4 points. The four polling firms that predict Trump will win give him a lead of between 1 and 3 points. The situation at the state level also illustrates how close the race still is: the Democrat is predicted to win 23 states, by a varying amount, while Trump is forecast to win 27 states, according to The Economist’s forecasts. Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are too close to call.
Harris is also the favorite on Metaculus, a community of thousands of users dedicated to making predictions, which has the best track record of accuracy. From July 20 to 21, the candidate went from a 17% to a 35% chance of being the next president. Since August 8, she has barely moved from 55%.
Trump, who peaked at 75% before Biden's withdrawal, is now at 46%.
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