A Polymarket user made $400,000 by betting on Maduro’s capture

An anonymous individual made a profit of $400,000 on Polymarket, a prediction market platform where users bet on events of global significance, after betting on the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Shortly before the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, the trader bet $32,000 that Maduro would be overthrown before January 31.

Although the site allows anonymous betting, Polymarket users noticed that the winner’s account was created recently, raising suspicions that it could be a government employee with prior knowledge of the attack. There is also a record of the same person placing other bets related to U.S. and Venezuelan foreign policy, reinforcing doubts about possible insider trading.

In response, Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres confirmed to Business Insider that he will introduce a bill this week to prohibit government officials from participating in prediction markets when they have access to non-public information. The Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 seeks to equate prediction markets with stock markets by incorporating a ban on insider trading.

According to experts, prediction markets are emerging as an increasingly influential tool for anticipating political and economic events. In 2025, Polymarket generated more than $2 bilion with questions that raised between $10 and $20 million in bets, ranging from the duration of a U.S. government shutdown to local elections in New York to the possible guest list for Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s wedding.

The rise of these markets has also caught the attention of the Trump family. Donald Trump Jr. is an investor and advisor to both Polymarket and its direct competitor, Kalshi. Meanwhile, President Trump announced in October the launch of his own prediction market, which will operate within the Truth Social network.

Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan, 28, has acknowledged the support his company has received from the current administration, after facing an investigation during its early years of operation under Joe Biden’s government. In November 2024, the FBI raided his home and confiscated his personal phone. “This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election”, a statement said. In 2022, the company was fined by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for failing to comply with registration requirements to operate legally.

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