What are the chances that Trump’s peace plan will last?

The first, extremely complicated and fundamental step has been taken. Representatives of Israel and Hamas have sealed an agreement based on Donald Trump’s diplomatic initiative to halt the violence in Gaza, and the Netanyahu administration is expected to approve it on October 9. The prospect of its implementation represents an indescribable relief for Gazan civilians plagued by Israel, and it should be celebrated. Immediately afterward, a huge question arises: can it last?

Powerful currents are pushing in opposing directions. Speculating about the final outcome is pointless, but it is possible to analyze these.

The premise is that the first step was extremely complex due to the resistance of both sides to accepting some elements of the plan. In Hamas’ case, it meant handing over the hostages, its only bargaining chip. In Israel’s case, it meant halting a retaliatory offensive that represents a major political and personal asset for Netanyahu — who is facing serious corruption charges and enjoying a surge in the polls — as well as renouncing any prospects of occupation, annexation, or ethnic cleansing of the Gaza Strip.

Only the intense pressure Trump has applied has been able to break this paralysis, fueled by Netanyahu’s mistakes. He made a colossal error by bombing targets on Qatari territory, angering the Sunni countries in the region, and another by escalating his offensive to the point of generating an unsustainable wave of international outrage. These failures facilitated Trump’s actions.

But if the first phase was extremely complex, the subsequent steps are, if anything, even more difficult.

Hamas should renounce its arms and participate in politics. In effect, it is being asked to surrender completely, while at the same time there are no guarantees that the rights of Palestinians will be respected. Trump’s peace plan is in reality a diktat of surrender.

Netanyahu, for his part, wants to secure his hold on power with a group of hard-to-describe radicals who will miss no opportunity to restate his maximalist objectives in the face of a plan that maintains the two-state objective, which almost no one in Israel supports anymore. Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s extremist finance minister, has already said that Hamas must be annihilated after the hostages are handed over, clarifying that he will not vote in favor of the plan in the war cabinet.

All of this will unfold under the leadership of a notoriously volatile Trump. He already facilitated a ceasefire before taking office, only to ignore it for months when it failed and gave way to unspeakable violence. Will he remain involved if he does not win the Nobel Peace Prize? Or will he become frustrated and find something else to distract him? Or if the slightest provocation from an uncontrolled segment stirs the waters?

However, in the face of these difficulties, there are forces pushing vigorously to keep the plan on track.

First, it must be acknowledged that this time Trump is applying an unprecedented degree of political force. Several objectives overlap. One is personal, as already mentioned: to win the Nobel Peace Prize, to go down in history as a great peacemaker. Another is economic: there are clear business prospects for his family in the reconstruction process, a prospect tinged with corruption that, paradoxically, could produce the asset of a persistent interest in peace. Another is geopolitical: the Sunni regimes were furious with Israel’s strike inside Qatar, and Trump has an interest in not completely dismantling alliances that, among other things, have an economic return through the purchase of weapons. Yet another is based on domestic and international politics: polls show that support for Israel in American society is sharply deteriorating, and in the rest of the world, the U.S. has been increasingly perceived as an infamous, necessary accomplice in genocide.

Secondly, the regional context is also pushing in a favorable direction. Hamas is not only shattered, but also severely isolated. The so-called Axis of Resistance has been greatly weakened over these past two years, with Hezbollah decapitated, Assad overthrown and exiled, and Iran humiliated. And the Sunni Arab regimes, as well as Turkey, have become involved in this plan and have supported it, suggesting that they will continue to do so.

Third, the exhaustion of the Gazan population will undoubtedly exert enormous pressure on all those within Hamas who have any decision-making power. Being perceived as precipitating another outbreak of violence would carry a huge political price. On the Israeli side, it is also likely that the fatigue of society will act as a brake on possible decisions to reactivate large-scale violence.

But, as we said, the path is fraught with unbalancing obstacles, and the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is one of constant flare-ups, lulls, and new clashes. How will Hamas be disarmed, and who will oversee it? How will the Israeli withdrawal be carried out? What will the local technical executive be composed of, and under what terms will it be subject to the supervision of the international panel? How and when will the so-called International Stabilization Force be formed and deployed? The plan is full of holes in fundamental aspects, and on both sides — as we have seen — there are unrestrained radicals and actors who pursue their interests without scruples.

Ultimately, the crucial factor is the degree of pressure Trump will apply on Israel. The Israeli government knows the country is more isolated than ever and cannot afford to be left without Washington’s support. Biden will go down in history as the leader who facilitated a heinous operation with genocidal overtones. Trump is an existential threat to democracy and, in many ways, a real disaster for the future of the world, but in this case — whatever his motivations may be — he seems to have decided to apply pressure in the right direction in a way that has never been done before. Hopefully, he will maintain it, and hopefully, he will apply it equally to another leader wanted by international justice like Netanyahu: Vladimir Putin.

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