Russia lowers expectations of a ceasefire in Ukraine after negotiations with the United States

Almost complete secrecy surrounded the meeting between Russian and U.S. representatives held Monday in Riyadh to negotiate a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. The meeting concluded after more than 12 hours, and the only communication offered was that the text of the agreement would not be published until Tuesday. The Kyiv delegation will hold further talks with the Washington representatives after meeting last Sunday.

Before the delegates locked themselves in a conference room at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in the Saudi Arabian capital, few details had emerged about the content of these talks. Washington wanted to extract a truce from Moscow beyond the minimum guarantees proposed to protect critical infrastructure.

In the latest development, Moscow sought to revive the Black Sea grain export agreement, a new priority that wasn’t on the agenda when these rounds of negotiations were announced last week. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated Monday: “The issue of the Black Sea Initiative and all aspects related to the renewal of this initiative is on the agenda today.”

The laconicism regarding the progress of the talks also extended to Washington. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce provided few details on the progress of the negotiations in Riyadh, merely confirming that the situation in the Black Sea had been one of the major issues addressed in the diplomatic back-and-forth. “We’ve never been closer, a breath away, from a full ceasefire, and then a discussion about an enduring peace. It’s doable. Humanity has done it in the past, we can do it again [...] this is the time where there has to be new ideas, where this dynamic has to stop” she said.

Meanwhile, Ukraine and Russia exchanged attacks on another day that left dead and wounded. Monday saw one of the most serious attacks perpetrated by Russia on Ukrainian soil, when a missile hit a residential area in the city of Sumy. At least 88 people were injured, 17 of whom were children, according to the city council. Russia has also reported the deaths of six people, including three journalists, in an artillery attack in Luhansk by the Ukrainian army. In addition, in the early hours of the morning, two civilians were killed by a drone in the Russian region of Belgorod, according to local authorities.

During Monday’s marathon session, the delegates from both countries only took three rest breaks. During the second of these, Sergei Karasin, head of the Russian delegation, expressed his satisfaction. “The talks are in full swing. An interesting discussion of the most pressing issues is taking place,” he said.

Beyond Karasin’s optimism, the only details of the meeting emerged through a pair of brief statements from the Kremlin, which lowered expectations generated in recent days about a possible ceasefire. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that although work is being done “in several directions,” “the negotiations should not be expected to produce a breakthrough,” according to Kommersant. Peskov added that the Kremlin does not plan on signing any documents for now.

While the United States and Russia continue to discuss the future of Ukraine, representatives from Kyiv are waiting for their turn to enter the meeting room with White House spokespersons. The two delegations also met on Sunday in Riyadh, and during that much shorter meeting — just four hours — it was revealed that technical issues related to infrastructure and maritime security were discussed. The talks were “productive and focused,” according to Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who heads the group of delegates from Kyiv.

The White House’s plans were to meet separately with the two warring countries on Monday, with the result of these meetings being signed by both sides. This is what Donald Trump’s representative for the most sensitive negotiations, Steve Witkoff, calls “shuttle diplomacy,” due to the frequency with which U.S. mediators travel back and forth between the parties.

Ukraine initially seemed reluctant, but its delegation ultimately remained in Riyadh and Serhiy Leshchenko, an advisor to Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s chief of staff, announced that they would hold another meeting with the Americans, expected to take place on Tuesday. The Ukrainian negotiator also tempered expectations: “Normally, negotiations don’t last a day. Sometimes they last months, and some, like agreements in the Middle East, last years,” he told the Ukrainian news agency Unian.

Leshchenko also asserted that Russian forces are not attacking Ukrainian facilities and ports. This Kremlin decision underscores the importance of resuming the Black Sea grain agreement, signed in 2022 through the mediation of Turkey and the UN to allow safe navigation for Ukrainian agricultural exports. A year later, Moscow unilaterally broke it, arguing that Kyiv’s Western allies had failed to honor their commitment to lift sanctions on Russian exports. Since then, Ukraine has kept its maritime corridor open by bombarding enemy naval forces with missiles and drones.

The United States has also expressed support for reviving the pact. If re-signed, Moscow would be able to export its agricultural products and fertilizers through the Black Sea: effectively, a lifting of some of the international economic sanctions that have kept its economy reeling throughout three years of war. But it is also of interest to Ukraine, for which maritime traffic is a vital line for its exports, especially to Asia.

Other negotiations

The Black Sea agreements are the latest of the conditions imposed by the Kremlin to move toward a lasting peace with Ukraine. But Washington and Kyiv have also presented their demands for moving forward. First, there is the partial ceasefire that Trump has been trying to agree on for weeks with Zelenskiy and Vladimir Putin. In previous meetings, both leaders had agreed to a truce for energy facilities and other critical infrastructure, but neither side has ceased their attacks.

Another point of great interest for the United States is control of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. On March 19, Trump and Zelenskiy suggested in a telephone conversation that the United States could own or help manage these facilities, at least Zaporizhzhia, the largest in Europe, in exchange for their protection. Zelenskiy denied there had been any talk of transferring ownership, but expressed openness to negotiating some kind of intermediate agreement.

Trump has set another condition in exchange for offering protection and military aid: the exploitation of Ukrainian minerals and rare earths. The agreement, whose signing was cut short on February 28 when Zelenskiy was publicly rebuked in the Oval Office, is close to being finalized, Trump said Monday. And the U.S. president has reiterated Washington’s interest in managing Zaporizhzhia.

NATO membership, prisoner exchanges, Ukraine’s post-war security, possible territorial concessions, and the easing of Western sanctions on Russia are other issues on the table that will need to be addressed in future sessions. The sensitivity and complications inherent in all of these matters indicate that, no matter how hard Trump wants to force the issue, any decision to end the war that began three years ago won’t be taken in a matter of days.

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