Ukraine assumes Putin is paying lip service to ceasefire to buy time to continue the offensive

Ukraine not only distrusts Vladimir Putin, but also interprets his Tuesday conversation with Donald Trump as indicating that he has no intention of signing a peace agreement. This is what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has expressed, and it is also evident among his generals observing battlefield movements in recent days, where Russian forces are opening new fronts.

Last week, Zelenskiy accepted the U.S. president’s initial proposal: an immediate 30-day land, sea, and air truce. The Russian president, on the other hand, only conceded in his telephone meeting with Trump that he would abide by a one-month ceasefire on energy infrastructure and analyze how to reopen the Black Sea to merchant traffic. Going beyond this, Putin said, would only be discussed if Western military aid to Ukraine is suspended. That demand is unfeasible, regardless of what Washington decides, because neither the European allies nor Kyiv will accept it.

The Ukrainian president confirmed in a conversation with Trump on Wednesday that he also supports a month-long ceasefire on Russian energy infrastructure, but that “technical details” need to be worked out first, especially how Moscow’s compliance will be verified.

Zelenskiy issued a statement after his meeting with Trump in which he omitted harsh words against the invader and made it clear that he wants to be conciliatory and improve relations with Washington. ”I stressed that Ukrainians want peace, which is why Ukraine accepted the proposal for an unconditional ceasefire,” he said. These words implicitly reveal the fact that the Kremlin does not support a complete truce and also respond to the criticism the White House leveled at Zelenskiy in early March, accusing him of not wanting peace, unlike Putin, as Trump claimed.

Andrii Yermak, head of the Ukrainian president’s office, emphasized Tuesday in a meeting with civil society representatives that there are three red lines Kyiv will not accept in hypothetical peace negotiations with the Kremlin: the condition of Ukrainian neutrality, signifying its withdrawal from its NATO membership bid; reducing its defense potential, as Putin has demanded in recent weeks; and recognizing Russian sovereignty in the occupied territories. Yermak did not even consider the possibility of being left without military assistance from Kyiv’s allies. “If Ukraine is left alone, it will disappear. It would be a total surrender,” Olena Snigyr, a scholar at the Robert Schuman Center, explained to this newspaper on Monday.

Zelenskiy confirmed Wednesday at a press conference during a visit to Finland that the “security guarantees” provided by Ukraine’s allies are part of the “red line” of not weakening its military potential. “All this suggests that the war will continue,” Zelenskiy said, referring to the demands Putin expressed to Trump.

Only the U.S. leader has threatened to cut off military and intelligence assistance to Ukraine, aiming to force Zelenskiy onto his bandwagon, which is to seek the end of the war at all costs, even with initial concessions to the Kremlin. The threat even materialized for 10 days this March, a measure that forced the Ukrainian leader to admit that he was willing to “negotiate peace as soon as possible under the strong leadership of President Trump.”

Putin stressed that if broader negotiations are to continue, “the key condition must be the complete cessation of military aid and foreign intelligence to Kyiv.” This is something neither the European Union nor the United Kingdom are likely to back down on, especially given the European coalition’s recent commitments to redouble its defense assistance to Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that Putin raised the issue of halting military transfers from Westerrn allies to Kyiv with Trump and that “this will be a high-level issue on the agenda of any contacts between Moscow and Washington.” The U.S. and Russian delegations are scheduled to meet again next Sunday in Saudi Arabia. Peskov’s remarks discredited Trump, who denied speaking with his Russian counterpart about ending arms deliveries to Ukraine.

“For a ceasefire to work, there must be deterrence. If all defenses fall, and Putin has already demonstrated this, he will not respect the ceasefire,” warned EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Kaja Kallas on Euronews television.

Changes on the front

The latest developments on the battlefield indicate that the Kremlin wants to expand the occupied territory in Ukraine, Zelenskiy emphasized Tuesday. Both the president, his General Staff and military analysts have reported that Russian forces have stepped up activity in sectors of the front that had been dormant for months. This is the case on the Orikhiv front in southern Ukraine, where the invading troops have advanced again, albeit marginally. This sector is the closest to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, 37 miles away. The largest nuclear plant in Europe, under Russian occupation, would be one of the “assets to be shared,” according to Trump, in hypothetical peace negotiations.

Russian forces have also stepped up offensive operations on the eastern borders of Kharkiv province, both north and south of the city of Kupiansk. Furthermore, the Kremlin’s offensive to expel the Ukrainian army from Russia’s Kursk province is expanding with an attempted invasion of part of Ukraine’s Sumy province, Zelenskiy has warned.

Vadim Triukhan, a well-known Ukrainian diplomat and military officer, stated in an analysis published Wednesday by the state news agency Ukrinform that "it's clear that Putin has won the game against Trump" because Russia will continue to attack with its ground forces and because it has marginalized Europe in the negotiations. "Furthermore, Putin has shown that he hasn't budged one iota from his position," Triukhan added.

“Putin is demanding that our allies stop supplying weapons while the Russians continue to manufacture them,” Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the Ukrainian presidency, said Tuesday. “Is this hypocritical, the usual logic? Yes, it’s normal for Putin. He’s an open book, his intentions are obvious.”

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