NATO warns of Russia’s attempts to destabilize Bosnia, Moldova and Georgia, the weakest links in Europe

NATO considers Russia to be its “most significant and direct threat.” But now, with the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine at a stalemate and amid the turbulent global geopolitical context, the Atlantic Alliance is analyzing whether to add something more to its Strategic Concept and the steps it must take in its future relationship with Moscow. NATO does not want to limit its analysis and action on Russia to Ukraine, as it is also seriously concerned about the Kremlin’s increased influence and destabilization operations in Bosnia, Moldova and Georgia — three of the weakest links in Europe — and in North Africa and the Sahel region of Africa, where Moscow-linked paramilitary organizations have a growing presence. In a confidential report, NATO warns of the Kremlin’s actions in these areas and opens a debate on how to respond to the threat.

The document — which the foreign ministers of the 32 NATO member countries will review on Wednesday — does not propose operational solutions, according to several allied sources familiar with the analysis, but it does raise some ideas and reviews Moscow’s destabilizing activity in the very tense global scenario in which some allies, such as Poland, have warned that Europe is in a pre-war era. However, the growing threat of war in Europe is not on the table, emphasizes the United States ambassador to NATO, Julianne Smith. What is being discussed for NATO’s Strategic Concept is that Moscow is boosting its efforts in so-called hybrid warfare. “We do not see an imminent threat to NATO territory [...] but it remains a top concern,” Smith said on Tuesday.

In the weeks leading up to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, there were many signs that Russia was preparing for combat (although the scale was unknown). The scenario now is different, Smith pointed out: there are no such signs. However, Russia is ramping up its disinformation and propaganda campaigns not only in NATO allies and Ukraine, but also — and on a significant scale — in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Moldova, considered “partners at risk” by NATO as these countries are seeking to enter the European Union, a rapprochement that Russia wants to reverse.

Kosovo and Serbia, a hot spot

Moscow is focused on Kosovo and Serbia (a country traditionally close to the Kremlin, which seeks to use it as leverage), and is now trying to exploit the political instability of Bosnia and Herzegovina, a strategic country in the Balkans that has been approved to begin EU accession talks, albeit with conditions. According to NATO sources, Russia has launched campaigns in Bosnia and Herzegovina to undermine democratic trust and confidence in the West, and to undercut its relationship with NATO and its path to EU membership.

Russia has also launched campaigns in Georgia and Moldova, two particularly vulnerable countries, since part of their territory is occupied by Russian troops, recalls Natia Seskuria, from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), who is an expert on the region and Russian activity. Moscow is seeking to use that occupied territory — South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the case of Georgia and Transnistria in the case of Moldova — to destabilize the countries. “We have seen an increase in operations focused on building public opinion that is more sympathetic to Russia, and also more wary of NATO and the EU; and an effort to undermine the so-called ‘neutrality,’” Seskuria told EL PAÍS.

Experts like Seskuria warn, as outlined in the NATO report, that Russia is working hard to feed like-minded parties and nationalist politicians, while trying to ensure that these countries do not break their economic ties with Moscow, which can still be used to exert pressure. Other options that NATO is considering to counter Russia’s moves include, for example, helping Bosnia improve its military and elevate NATO’s role in the three partners at risk with more information campaigns and some form of economic cooperation through Alliance programs.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has entered its third year, and NATO is adjusting to the new reality, one in which the Kremlin is also strengthening its positions in the Sahel — where the EU has an ever-diminishing military presence — and forging more diplomatic relations in countries such as Niger, Mali and Chad. This is all taking place in an unstable region where mercenaries, such as the Russian Wagner Group, have a growing presence. The Alliance, which turns 75 on Thursday, is now analyzing its role in the area and how to increase it relationship with partners in the region.

And in this debate on how to view Russia, NATO wants to review what is being done to address the threat. This analysis will lay the foundations for NATO’s future relationship with a country that has become impossible to predict.

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