The world in Trump’s new era: Expansionism, tariffs, greater focus on the Americas and a staredown with Beijing

Buckle up your seatbelts. U.S. foreign policy is about to take a 180-degree turn, starting this Monday. The careful cultivation of alliances practiced by the new president’s predecessor — Joe Biden — and the internationalism of the last 80 years will soon be left in the dust.

With Donald J. Trump’s return to the White House, “America First” prevails. As does disruption, the conviction that might equals right and the idea that relations with allies should be transactional. His governing policy involves a peculiar combination of protectionism and imperialist proposals.

Trump 2.0 will be much freer in his new term than in the first. Back then, he surrounded himself with a team of experienced advisers who tried to limit his most disruptive instincts. In Congress, he not only had the opposition of the Democrats, but also of the more traditionalist Republican wing. But today, he has surrounded himself with a team of faithful followers who aren’t going to question him. On Capitol Hill, classic Republicans are the exception — not the rule.

Much of what’s coming was already present in Trump’s first term. This includes his admiration for authoritarian leaders, or his conviction that tariffs on foreign products and trade wars are a magic wand with which to stimulate domestic industry (Trump is flirting with the idea of a tariff of 10% on goods from all countries, with a 60% rate for Chinese products). The new president will, once again, increase tensions with allies and demand that NATO members make greater investments in their defense budgets: just two weeks ago, he proposed that a minimum of 5% of each member’s GDP be devoted to defense.

This time around, such approaches will no longer find partner countries unprepared. And, unlike in Trump’s first term, for the past year, U.S. allies have been preparing for the return of the Republican.

Other proposals are new, or have a different tone. In 2019, Trump had already mused about buying Greenland from Denmark. Back then, it sounded like mere bravado. Now, however, he doesn’t rule out using force to annex the gigantic Arctic island, which he considers beneficial to national security. He has also proposed the use of force to regain control of the Panama Canal, another obsession of his throughout the presidential transition. Trump has even flirted with the incorporation of Canada as the 51st state, or changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the “Gulf of America.”

Based on such statements, the American continent is going to be a key area for Trump’s second administration. He wants to focus on closing the border with Mexico to illegal immigration and on security and trade issues with Canada and Mexico. His nominees to be his number one and number two in the State Department — Marco Rubio and Chris Landau, respectively — have extensive experience in the region. He has also named a special envoy for Latin America, Mauricio Claver-Carone.

But other issues will immediately demand his attention. After the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, the delicate phase of its implementation now begins. Trump will want to follow the events closely. His envoy for the Middle East — businessman Steve Witkoff — played a role in the negotiations to close the agreement between Israel and Hamas. Trump took credit for this on social media.

“There are now factors at play in the Middle East that I think we can build upon and may open the door to extraordinary and historic opportunities,” said Marco Rubio, in his confirmation hearing in the Senate last week. In addition to Gaza, there’s the ceasefire in Lebanon, the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and a weakened Iran. The Trump administration may want to take advantage of the new panorama to expand the Abraham Accords — signed in Trump’s first term — and incorporate the jewel in the crown: normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The new U.S. president will also have to decide the future of the nearly 2,000 U.S. soldiers in Syria, given the risk of the return of ISIS after the fall of Assad.

Perhaps nowhere will the first days of the new presidency be watched more closely than in Ukraine. During his campaign, Trump promised to end the war within 24 hours by forcing Kyiv and Moscow to negotiate. Now, the Republican admits that it will take at least six months. Rubio has indicated that both enemies — Ukraine and Russia — will have to make concessions: Kyiv cannot completely expel an enemy that occupies 20% of its territory, nor can Moscow hope to conquer the entire neighboring country.

Relationship with China

Barring a surprise, it will be the relationship with China that will emerge as Trump’s greatest international challenge. Rubio has described the Asian giant as “the most powerful and dangerous adversary that the United States has ever faced.” The country competes with the world’s leading power in science, technology, military development and global markets, while dominating some of the main global supply chains. “When they write the book about the 21st century [...] the bulk of [that book] will be not just about China, but about the relationship between China and the United States and what direction it went,” the senator said at his confirmation hearing.

Rubio expressed the new administration’s support for Taiwan. The democratically-ruled island is aligned with the United States, although China considers it to be part of its territory and doesn’t renounce the notion of achieving reunification by force. But it’s unclear whether — in the event of an attack by Beijing — Trump would choose to defend it.

In a sign of the importance of the bilateral relationship between the two giants — rivals who exchange $500 billion a year in their trade relationship — Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke by phone last Friday, in a conversation that included TikTok, fentanyl trafficking, trade ties, Ukraine and Taiwan, among other issues. The American leader had previously invited the Chinese president to his inauguration. In a gesture of deference, Beijing will send Vice President Han Zheng to the ceremony.

Both leaders praised their conversation and declared themselves willing to maintain a fluid relationship in the Trump 2.0 era. The American “firmly believes we can avoid conflict with the Chinese Communist Party because they need our markets. We are going to use the leverage in a way that’s aligned with our national security while we still can.,” declared Mike Waltz, the new White House national security adviser, during an event at the United States Institute of Peace last week.

Waltz also stressed the need to respond to China’s growing influence in Latin America. He stressed the importance of the United States strengthening its alliances in the Asia-Pacific, reinforcing Taiwan’s deterrence capacity against China and reducing its dependence on Beijing for materials such as critical minerals. “We cannot depend on our greatest adversary for essential supplies,” he emphasized.

It’s unclear whether figures such as Waltz or Rubio will actually be able to influence foreign policy in the Trump universe. The candidate for secretary of state doesn’t belong to the president’s inner circle, where some continue to view him with distrust since the primaries that both men contested in 2016.

Rubio and Waltz will also have to share their work sphere with a plethora of regional envoys — friends or advisers of the president — appointed by Trump. This includes Witkoff in the Middle East, former ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell (now envoy to various areas of the world), Claver-Carone, or the special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, General Keith Kellogg. And, of course, Trump often acts on his own impulse when the matter at hand seems too important.

Rubio “will often find out about policy changes through social media posts by the president,” wrote Richard Haas — president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations — in his blog on Substack.

Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition