From migration to security: Latin America braces for a stronger Trump

The route that begins in Venezuela and reaches the U.S. border — passing through Colombia, the Darién jungle, Central America, and Mexico — reflects the key challenges that Donald Trump will face in Latin America.

Migration, the central issue of the president-elect’s campaign, is the lens through which the rest of the region’s issues can be understood: the ongoing political crisis in Venezuela, the security challenges posed by criminal organizations (mostly drug cartels involved in human trafficking), the strained relationship with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, and even the trade tensions that led to the Republican’s threats of retaking control of the Panama Canal.

As the January 20 inauguration approaches, Latin America is holding its breath in anticipation of Trump’s return to the White House.

Investiture in Caracas

Everything decided in Washington has a profound impact on the more than 6,800 miles that separate the Rio Grande from Patagonia, yet the opposite is almost never true. The United States often faces away from the rest of the continent, with a few exceptions. Venezuela is one of them. The inauguration of the next president, scheduled for January 10, will have direct repercussions on the international geopolitical landscape. Nicolás Maduro is determined to begin a new term after declaring himself the winner of an election marred by allegations of fraud. His main rival, diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia, currently in asylum in Madrid, has promised to return and take office — according to paper vote tallies collected by the opposition, González Urrutia won the July 28 election. The inauguration could further worsen the crisis, which has been aggravated in recent months by the government crackdown on protests and a wave of arrests.

One of Trump’s first decisions in international politics will be his stance on Chavismo. The intransigence of his designated strongmen for Latin America, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Mauricio Claver-Carone, does not, however, guarantee unwavering support for Venezuela’s opposition. The failure of the Juan Guaidó experiment — who was recognized as interim president by Trump during his first term — and Maduro’s ability to cling to power may limit White House support. Economic factors, such as Trump’s ties to the oil industry, further complicate the issue, along with the fact that the ongoing socio-political crisis continues to drive Venezuelans to flee in search of opportunities — over eight million, according to the United Nations. In any case, any move by the U.S. government will be decisive for Venezuela’s future, just as it will be for Maduro’s main ally, the Cuban regime of Miguel Díaz-Canel.

Mexico and deportations

Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration is already preparing to confront one of Trump’s key electoral promises: mass deportations to Mexico. The exchange of messages with Washington began shortly after the November 5 elections. The president-elect has threatened a tariff war, similar to the one he waged with former Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador at the end of the last decade, and to intervene in Mexican territory to dismantle drug cartels. Indeed, Trump has already activated various mechanisms to pressure the Mexican government.

Sheinbaum, a left-wing environmentalist ideologically opposed to the Republican, has always been cautious in her responses. From the outset, she has expressed a willingness to collaborate with the new administration on security and the fight against organized crime. However, her conditions are clear: she will not tolerate any violations of Mexican sovereignty. “We will never subordinate ourselves,” she stated last week in response to Trump’s announcement that he would declare the cartels “terrorist organizations” — a move that has sparked alarm about future U.S. actions in Mexico.

Weeks ago, Sheinbaum sent a letter to Trump, in which she argued that the U.S. is the primary consumer of drugs, that weapons flow from the country, but that it is Mexico that bears the brunt in terms of lives lost. On this premise, Mexico is eager to cooperate with the White House, which also influences the country’s economic stability. But it is not willing to cooperate at any price. The same stance applies to immigration policy. The Sheinbaum government has affirmed that Mexico is prepared to receive deportees, most of whom come from third countries. However, it has long called for more substantial U.S. investment and a clearer commitment to development in the Northern Triangle of Central America and in Chiapas to address the issue in the long term.

The Panama Canal: a question of economics

Trump’s threat to regain control of the Panama Canal due to perceived abusive tariffs highlights another of the president-elect’s main concerns: the economy. However, the political use of economic or commercial grievances by the incoming U.S. administration has raised alarm bells across much of the region. Beyond Trump’s unlikely plan for the U.S. to take back control of the Panama Canal, which would breach the treaties signed in 1977 by Jimmy Carter and Omar Torrijos, the Republican’s idea carries significant weight, particularly because of the sovereignty issues it raises in Latin America.

The majority of the continent expressed support for Panama and its president, José Raúl Mulino, rejecting the Republican’s statements. However, Colombian President Gustavo Petro offered a broader reflection that touches on a major concern of the international community. “If the new U.S. government wants to talk business, we will talk business, face to face and for the benefit of our people, but dignity will never be negotiable,” said Petro. He also urged Trump to focus on the well-being of Latin American countries as a strategy to ease the migration flow. “If they don’t want us in the United States, we must make all of the Americas prosperous,” added the president of Colombia, a country that has long been a strategic ally of Washington, and which may become even more so in the context of the Venezuelan crisis.

Javier Milei, Trump’s key ally

Trump’s main political ally in Latin America is undoubtedly Javier Milei. The Argentine leader has consistently praised Trump, repeatedly calling him the world’s foremost leader in the fight against the left, comparable only to himself. In return for Milei’s devotion, Trump personally invited him to celebrate his victory at Mar-a-Lago, his Palm Beach mansion. Milei took photos, sang, danced, and delivered an emotional speech. However, Milei expects even more from his American ally: assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in securing a loan of approximately $15 billion to bolster Argentina’s Central Bank reserves, which are currently in the red.

The South American nation is negotiating with the IMF to replace the agreement signed by former president Alberto Fernández in January 2022. That deal set new payment terms for the $44 billion loan originally granted to Mauricio Macri’s government in 2018. Milei’s ultra-right administration has met the adjustment goals set by the pact, but now seeks additional funds. Milei is confident that Trump will come to Argentina’s aid, just as he did for Macri. In a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal, Milei said Trump considers Argentina a “strategic ally” and a “trustworthy partner.”

Milei’s ultimate goal is to sign a free trade agreement with the United States outside of Mercosur, the regional bloc that includes Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. However, his enthusiasm could face setbacks if Trump follows through on his promise to escalate the tariff war with China and Europe.

Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition