The triumphant return of Donald Trump

Donald Trump said goodbye to his supporters on the morning of January 20, 2021, at Andrews Air Force Base just outside of Washington, D.C., before leaving for his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. “Goodbye. We love you. We’ll be back in some form,” he said, with First Lady Melania at his side, dressed in black, as if in mourning. The loudspeakers blared the strains of YMCA — the Village People song that’s part of the soundtrack of Trumpism — as the couple walked, hand-in-hand, to the steps of Air Force One, the presidential jet.

Four years later, Trump is back. And not in just any way: his is a triumphant return. He’s the only US president to regain office after having lost it (apart from Grover Cleveland, back in 1893).

The 78-year-old Republican returns to the White House on Monday with experience, surrounded by loyalists and ready to exercise power from day one. He plans to issue dozens of decrees that will begin to erase the Biden-Harris administration, reduced to an interregnum between his two terms. Four years after the assault on the Capitol, Trump’s return to power — with his promises of political revenge, his plans for immediate mass deportations, his climate denialism and the rest of his extremist agenda — represents an earthquake, a new test of resistance for American democracy and institutions. The return of Trump’s nationalist populism is also a blow to the geopolitical chessboard, with its strange mix of isolationism and imperialist desires, peppered with threats of tariffs.

In his first term (2017-2021), Trump frequently strained the seams of his executive authority, with judges striking down measures that overstepped his jurisdiction. Few doubt that history will repeat itself, with some of his decrees being challenged in court. The judges will be — in the words of Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader of the Senate — “a shield to protect democracy.” The Supreme Court has a conservative supermajority that will make things easier for the president… but it has shown that it won’t simply bow to Trump’s wishes. It rejected his request to suspend the ban on TikTok and also allowed him to be sentenced in the Stormy Daniels case. Trump thus marks another milestone: he will be the first convicted felon to be sworn in as president.

Trump won the presidential election on November 5 with 77.3 million votes (49.9%)... 2.3 million more than Kamala Harris, the first Black woman to run for office. He capitalized on the frustration felt by broad segments of the population: people are upset with rising prices, the massive influx of immigrants and the global conflicts that have weighed down Biden’s presidency. However, Trump also took advantage of his undeniable charisma. Making xenophobia the axis of his campaign — as he did in 2016 — he whipped up hatred of immigrants to his advantage.

As if a real estate developer-turned-television star winning the presidency didn’t already defy the laws of gravity in American politics, his retaking of power also seemed like an improbable feat. Voters forgave him for his scandals, accusations and convictions. Yet, he returns to the office with a sour face: his official portrait is more reminiscent of his police mug shot than the smiling image in his 2017 presidential photograph.

Downtown Washington is already sealed off for the inauguration. As required by the 20th Amendment to the US Constitution, Trump will take office at noon. The 45th president of the United States will also become the 47th… the oldest to take office. The inauguration will take place in the Rotunda, the large round room under the great dome of the Capitol. This is after a last-minute change of plans, due to the wave of polar cold that will hit Washington this Monday. “Blue Monday” is generally considered to be the most depressing day of the year.

He will be surrounded by the Declaration of Independence, paintings like The Baptism of Pocahontas (1840), as well as statues of eight former presidents, including Thomas Jefferson, Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan. The latter was the last president who was sworn in indoors because of the cold.

With his left hand on the Bible, his right hand raised — and standing before Chief Justice John Roberts — Trump will swear allegiance to the Constitution. House Speaker Mike Johnson — a Republican — has ordered the U.S. flag at the Capitol to be flown to its highest point. Trump had expressed frustration that it would be flown at half-staff at his inauguration because of the 30 days of mourning declared following the death of Jimmy Carter.

With the ceremony moved inside the Capitol, only the most select guests — around 600 — will be present. Attendees will include the outgoing president, Joe Biden; the three living former presidents, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama; foreign leaders — a novelty for this ceremony — such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, as well as Argentine President Javier Milei and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. There will also be numerous allies of Trump — including Elon Musk — and big tech magnates like Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos and Tim Cook. Among those who’ve made it clear they won’t attend are Nancy Pelosi — the former House speaker and informal leader of the opposition during Trump’s first term — and Michelle Obama, who, as outgoing first lady, attended Trump’s inauguration eight years ago.

Trump’s supporters will gather at the Capital One Arena — the home of the Washington Wizards — about a mile away to watch the broadcast of the inauguration. Trump will hold a rally there on Sunday, January 19. The Village People, of course, will perform their hit song — YMCA — live.

Apocalyptic vision

Monday’s inaugural address will set the tone for Trump’s return to power. Eight years ago, he painted a grim picture of the country, presenting it as the victim of a massacre: “American carnage.” His vision has become even more apocalyptic since then, despite the fact that crime has fallen, the economy is doing well and even the flow of irregular immigration has slowed.

In 2017, Trump promised to return power to the people (without that translating into anything concrete during his term). Now, he arrives at the White House surrounded by what Biden described in his farewell speech as a new “oligarchy,” or a “technological industrial complex” — an echo of the military industrial complex that Eisenhower denounced — that concentrates power and extreme wealth.

In his first inauguration, Trump proclaimed his “America First” slogan — the prelude to tariffs and his nationalistic foreign policy — and closed with the slogan plagiarized from Reagan’s 1980 campaign, “Make America Great Again.” The acronym — MAGA — has long been synonymous with Trumpism. It will surely resonate again in the Capitol on Monday.

While the president-elect has made some of his priorities clear, the way in which his words will be translated into actions is largely unpredictable. The unknown will begin to clear up on Monday, when he takes the oath of office, gives his address and begins to make his first decisions. Trump said during the campaign that he would only be a “dictator” on the first day. “I want to close the border and I want to drill, drill, drill. After that, I’m not a dictator,” he shrugged.

Proposed crackdowns on migrants in Chicago

Trump’s team has made it clear that it does not intend to literally “close the border.” Rather, this promise — repeated so many times — means that he will cut off the flow of illegal immigration. Trump has assured his supporters that, on the first day, he’ll launch the largest immigrant deportation program in history, even suggesting that he could use the US Army. According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump’s border czar — Tom Homan — is preparing a large raid in Chicago on Tuesday, intended to be a warning to the so-called “sanctuary cities.” Homan told Fox News that “there will be [large raids] across the country… Chicago is just one of many places.”

In an interview in December of 2024, Trump emphasized that he would initially focus on “the criminals.” As with other undocumented people, he claimed that he would “see how it goes,” opening the door to a pact so that the so-called “dreamers” (the children of immigrants who arrived as minors and have made their lives in the country) can stay in the US. But the deportations could begin immediately. With Democratic support, the Congress is finalizing a law that will facilitate the expulsion of those accused of minor crimes. Trump’s team is also preparing executive orders to speed up the process.

Trump wants to reinstate his Remain in Mexico policy, under which asylum seekers have to remain on the other side of the border while their requests are processed. His advisers have also been analyzing the possibility of declaring a health emergency, such as the one that allowed for the acceleration of deportations during the pandemic, under the infamous Title 42. Additionally, Trump also wants to eliminate birthright citizenship for those born to parents who are undocumented immigrants… although it’s unclear if he has the power to do this via executive decree.

Many other first-day promises also aren’t technically in Trumps’ hands: they depend on Congress. This includes exempting tips from taxes (he said he would do this “immediately,” the moment he’s in office). Some issues escape his control entirely, such as the most talked-about of all: ending the war in Ukraine. Trump used to say that he would get this done before even taking office… but even the concept of his “first day” in power is vague: in 2017, he considered it to be January 21, the day after the inauguration.

But Trump has set even more peremptory — and somewhat absurd — deadlines, such as “the first hour,” or “perhaps within the first nine minutes,” to pardon those convicted and charged in connection with the assault on the Capitol… something he does have full authority to do. And he won’t need to fire Special Counsel Jack Smith (who investigated the president) “in two seconds,” because he already resigned last week.

“Drill, drill, drill” could translate into a declaration of a national energy emergency to push for the opening of more oil fields, pipelines and refineries, as well as power plants and nuclear reactors. This is despite the fact that crude production is already at an all-time high. In his first few days in office, Trump is also likely to decide to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement on emissions (as he did in his first term).

He will also end the “electric car mandate” on day one, even though there’s no such thing. “I will end the electric mandate on cars on day one. You should have electric cars, but you have to have gasoline. You have to have everything,” he said, confusedly, in an interview. With Elon Musk as an ally, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll ban electric cars… but since the vast majority of cars are already gasoline-powered, his promise makes little sense. The closest he can do is repeal rules approved by the Biden administration that limit the emission of pollutants.

The tariffs on Mexico and Canada have also been scheduled for Trump’s first day in office, if the respective governments don’t stop the entry of drugs and undocumented immigrants. “On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders,” Trump wrote, in a post on Truth Social, on November 25, 2024. Is that threat still in effect? Will there be other tariffs on the first day?

Reversing Biden-era decrees is also on the to-do list. Trump intends to eliminate protections established by his predecessor for federal employees and trans people — these have already been suspended by a court — as well as repeal environmental regulations. He also wants to set new priorities, such as cryptocurrencies. “A lot of things will get done on day one. Your head will spin when you see what’s going to happen,” he told the live audience during a campaign interview in Glendale, Arizona, in October of 2024. More recently, the president-elect told senators that he was preparing 100 measures for the first few days of his term.

Trump has also expressed his desire for Congress to approve — as soon as possible — a “big, beautiful law” with the priorities of his legislative agenda in matters that he cannot regulate by decree. It would include tax cuts (extending those he signed in 2017 that expire this year, while including new ones), immigration restrictions and energy policies, among others. Each year, Congress can quickly approve a law related to income, expenses and debt through a procedure known as “reconciliation,” in which the 60 votes required in the Senate for ordinary laws aren’t necessary. Even so, the slim Republican majority in the House of Representatives, the non-existent voting discipline among legislators and the complexity of the law will make the task difficult. The extent to which the president can impose his authority on his party’s congresspeople and senators will determine whether Congress acts as a countervailing force… or becomes a steamroller.