Are men turning away from Trump?

In early 2025, Donald Trump became the first sitting president to attend the Super Bowl. He had just returned to the White House and his approval ratings were higher than ever. A few months earlier, he had won the election with a 12-point lead among male voters, which encouraged him to embark on something of a tour of some of the principal cathedrals of American men’s sport: on December 14, he attended the traditional Army-Navy college football game; on February 9, he was at the Super Bowl; on February 16, he attended the NASCAR Daytona 500; and on June 8, he was present at UFC 316, shortly after which he announced that he would stage a UFC fight at the White House to celebrate his 80th birthday.

Trump’s message was clear: American men once again had a president who represented them. For many, the idea was more than popular. It was seen as a lifeline after years of supposed “silent suffering.”

Male workers were hit hardest by the factory closures and decline in manufacturing jobs that accompanied the surge of Chinese imports into the United States at the start of the 21st century. And since the end of the last century, their dominant position in society has steadily eroded: the share of men in employment has fallen, while their earnings have stagnated or declined, particularly among those with lower levels of education. All of this occurred as gender-equality policies began to produce results, however incomplete, and women made advances on a scale never seen before.

Against this backdrop and after twice defeating what many saw as the threat of a female commander in chief, the immediate future seemed promising for these men. Trump returned to the White House promising to revive U.S. manufacturing and to avoid wasting time on military adventures abroad that drained the nation’s resources and diminished its standing. He also launched an offensive against equality and diversity initiatives. It was time, the message went, to do away with governments that favored minorities and once again place the emphasis on the long-neglected heterosexual white man

But the fantasy does not seem to have had a happy ending. The tariffs Trump said would revive domestic manufacturing have done little more than drive up the cost of imported goods, while the war in Iran, questioned even by MAGA influencers themselves, has consumed more than $40 billion, weakened America’s standing abroad and pushed the price of a gallon of gasoline back above $3.50 for the first time in four years. This was not what men were promised, and many have taken notice. According to YouGov’s tracking poll, since the start of the year more Americans have disapproved of Trump’s performance than approved of it.

On 10 August, 52.9% disapproved of Trump’s performance, compared with 45.2% who approved of it. That represents a decline of more than 10 percentage points from the beginning of his second term in January 2025, when Trump was in the middle of his sports tour. Among men under 30, a demographic that was key to his return to the White House, the picture is even worse. A recent survey by Harvard University found that, looking ahead to the next midterm elections, these voters favor Democratic Senate candidates by a margin of eight points.

Since 2016, Trump’s political career has rested on two pillars: the support of less-educated men and the belief that he is better equipped to manage the economy than his Democratic rivals. Both assumptions are beginning to crack. His decline among male voters is due largely to the fact that many no longer trust him to improve the country’s finances. According to NBC’s latest poll, for the first time since 2017, more Americans believe that Democrats are better at handling the economy.

This worrying decline in his standing threatens to deal a severe blow in the midterms on November 3. The outcome could leave his party without control of either the House of Representatives or the Senate, effectively turning the president into a lame duck, unable to pursue any major policy initiatives during his remaining two years in the White House.

In response, Trump and the Republicans have once again turned their attention to sports. American football returned to television screens across the United States in September, just in time for political messages aimed at reshaping male voters’ perceptions ahead of the election.

According to a study published by Axios, Republican candidates aired 5,546 campaign ads during NFL and college football broadcasts over the opening weekend of the NFL regular season, nearly 12 times as many as their Democratic rivals. In Michigan, for example, they mounted an aggressive campaign against Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed, resurfacing past remarks in which he allegedly described American football as racist and as an example of toxic masculinity.

Will this advertising blitz be enough to persuade disappointed Republican men to set aside their frustrations and turn out again in November? Or have rising gasoline prices and higher inflation broken the spell for good? On November 3, it will become clear whether working-class American men still feel they have a president who represents them.

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