Russia takes advantage of Ukraine’s depleted arsenal and the weather to advance in Donetsk

Russia is stepping up its assault on the Donetsk front, in eastern Ukraine, taking advantage of the growing weakness of Kyiv’s arsenal and the weather: low rainfall and high temperatures are allowing the Kremlin’s armored columns to roll smoothly. Russian military accounts have released footage showing the transport of infantry even up to the first lines of Ukrainian defensive positions.

Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, warned on Saturday of the renewed role of large numbers of tanks and other armored vehicles in the Russian offensive. This is because the spring rains that turn the Ukrainian countryside into a quagmire, hampering the movement of tracked heavy armor, have not yet arrived. Syrskyi acknowledged that the map of the war in Donetsk had “significantly deteriorated.” “The situation at the front is always difficult. But these days — and especially on the Donetsk front — it’s getting harder,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Sunday. On Saturday, Russian forces took full control of Pervomaiske, having advanced 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) from Avdiivka after taking the city in February.

From Avdiivka and the neighboring city of Donetsk, Russia is advancing on two flanks towards the municipality of Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian rear base in the southern part of Donetsk province. A video that has circulated of the Russian advance in this sector evidences the absence of Ukrainian artillery fire and anti-tank rocket launchers to stop the columns of armored vehicles. Only a few mortars attempt to slow the progress of the enemy infantry vehicles, which progress as far as a Ukrainian trench. The main weapon Ukraine has today is its massive fleet of drones, which are enabling it to keep the enemy at bay despite Russian superiority in numbers and weapons.

“The only thing preventing Russia’s breakthrough on all fronts is FPV [first-person] drones, 90% of which are being provided by volunteers or military divisions themselves,” Ukrainian Lieutenant Colonel Pavlo Kurylenko told The Telegraph on April 12. “A year ago it was a ‘bad situation.’ Today the situation with shells and gear is just horrible,” added Kurylenko, one of the most respected commanders in Ukraine. Zelenskiy had already warned on March 29 in The Washington Post that drones cannot replace artillery ammunition, anti-aircraft batteries, or long-range weaponry that can disrupt logistics lines and destroy command centers. Ukraine is in urgent need of all this hardware while the transfer of military aid from the United States remains blocked in Congress.

The Ukrainian president indicated, in line with the figures provided by military commanders on the ground, that his forces have only 25% of the artillery ammunition needed to resist the Russian advance. Just as evident is the dearth of anti-aircraft defenses: more and more missiles are hitting their targets in cities far from the battlefields, and Russian warplanes are striking more frequently at the front without fear of being shot down. “If there is no U.S. support, it means that we have no air defense, no Patriot missiles, no jammers for electronic warfare, no 155-millimeter artillery rounds. It means we will go back, retreat, step by step, in small steps,” Zelenskiy said in an interview with The Washington Post on March 29.

Objective: Chasiv Yar

Those backward steps are already taking place. Russia is focusing all its attention on taking Chasiv Yar, a municipality five kilometers (3.1 miles) from Bakhmut and decisive in the final objective of the Kremlin: to control 40% of the Donetsk province which remains part of free Ukraine. Chasiv Yar is located in an elevated position, from which neighboring Kostiantynivka would be an easy target. As indicated Sunday by the Center for Defense Strategies (CDS), a Ukrainian institute for military studies, “the conquest or siege of Kostiantynivka” would cut the road linking the southern front of Donetsk — that of Pokrovsk — with that of the north, where Ukraine has rear bases in the cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. The CDS also warned that the next Russian onslaught will take place to the east of Slovyansk, from the Siversk area, in preparation for a future siege on Kramatorsk. Syrskyi confirmed that the Russian strategy is to try to reach Kramatorsk, something that would in effect practically signify the Ukrainian loss of the Donetsk province.

Syrskyi said Sunday from the Donetsk front that the Kremlin had set its sights on capturing Chasiv Yar by May 9, when Russia commemorates the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. The time margin to achieve that objective is very tight, despite the fact that Russian troops last week planted their flag in Bogdanivka, a village on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. EL PAÍS visited Chasiv Yar in February during the first phase of the Russian siege, which consisted of a systematic artillery bombardment on the urban center. On April 9, a video was made public of two Russian Su-25 fighters flying over the town and attacking Ukrainian positions without facing anti-aircraft fire, something that until a few months ago was difficult to imagine. In the second phase of the battle, Russian forces have probed the city’s outer defenses and have now begun assault maneuvers to cross the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal, which serves as a natural defensive barrier.

Syrskyi added that it is necessary to “improve the quality of [soldiers’] training, including the psychological component,” a comment that was interpreted as a reference to the war fatigue being suffered by hundreds of thousands of military personnel, who have been fighting for more than two years. The new mobilization law, approved last week, should help to incorporate nearly 400,000 new recruits into the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but they will not be ready to enter combat until well into the summer.

It is precisely then that a major Russian offensive is anticipated. Rob Lee, one of the leading analysts of the Ukraine war at the U.S. Foreign Policy Research Institute, wrote on Saturday that Moscow wants to take Chasiv Yar before the summer and from there to launch its warm-weather campaign, when the terrain is suitable for the movement of armored vehicles. The head of the intelligence services of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Kyrylo Budanov, told German television channel ARD on April 7 that he foresees the start of the Russian offensive coming at the beginning of June, with Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk as the main objectives. Budanov — known for his defiant tone and occasionally overly optimistic forecasts — was particularly concerned: “Without the help of Western allies, it will be catastrophically difficult” for Ukraine to repel the Russian advance, he said.

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