Egypt alarmed by Israel’s forced displacement of Gazans to the south

The forced displacement of more and more Gazans to the south of the Strip, which borders Egypt, and the rapid deterioration of the humanitarian crisis in the Palestinian enclave have sparked concern in Cairo. It is feared that the expansion of the Israeli military offensive, the siege of Gaza and the constant relocation orders to the population are the prelude to expelling Gazans to the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt. There is also concern that the situation in Gaza will become so dire that thousands of civilians may try to cross the border in desperation. Egypt considers these situations a red line that could upturn its relations with Israel.

Since the beginning of Israel’s military onslaught on Gaza in early October, there have been two large waves of forced displacements to the south. In its early stages, the Israeli army’s operations were concentrated in the northern half of the enclave, and residents were ordered to move to the southern half of Gaza. Then, after the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel concluded on December 1, the Israeli ground offensive was extended to the southern half, forcing tens of thousands of people — many of whom had already been displaced during the first weeks of the assault — to flee to even more southern points, closer and closer to Egypt.

It is estimated that around 1.8 million people in Gaza — around 85% of its population — are currently internally displaced, representing the largest movement of the Palestinian population recorded since the mass exodus caused by the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948, according to the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA).

The current Israeli military offensive has also decimated the north of the enclave, and the situation in the south is rapidly deteriorating. The recent arrival of tens of thousands of displaced people to cities such as Rafah, on the border with Egypt, has led to extreme overcrowding, according to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). It is also exacerbating food and water shortages.

The Palestinian Ministry of Health has warned that the health system in the south is in a dire state. Given the almost total collapse of Gaza’s sanitation system, this could soon lead to a situation in which there are more deaths from diseases than from Israel’s bombings, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). In a letter to the U.N. Security Council on Saturday, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres warned: “I expect public order to completely break down soon due to the desperate conditions.”

Protect Egypt

Egypt — concerned about the growing pressure on its border with Gaza — has informed both the United States and Israel that it is willing to consider breaking its relations with the Israeli state if the military campaign in the south of the Strip forces Gazans to flee to the Sinai Peninsula in search of refuge, according to four U.S. and Israeli officials quoted on Thursday by Axios. Egypt was the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.

The Egyptian Minister of Defense, Mohamed Zaki, an influential figure close to the president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, stated in a speech last Monday that the armed forces are prepared to protect the country’s national security and stability in the event of any aggression on Egyptian soil. He noted that the situation is very delicate and could lead to a military escalation that upturns the region. The director of the Egyptian Information Service, Diaa Rashwan — who in recent weeks has emerged as a kind of official spokesperson — also said last Thursday that the forced displacement of Gazans to the Sinai Peninsula is a red line that must not be crossed.

Since the beginning of the Israeli offensive, Egypt — along with Jordan and the Palestinian Authority — has been expressing concern that Israel will expel Palestinians from the Gaza strip. Cairo has always categorically rejected the forced relocation of Gazans to its territory, as this would undermine Palestinians’ right to establish a future state that includes Gaza. It also fears that this would turn the Sinai Peninsula into a base of operations for Palestinian resistance movements. El-Sisi has suggested that Israel may temporarily relocate Gazans to the Negev Desert in Israel.

The lack of humanitarian aid is also accelerating the collapse of the south. Since the end of the ceasefire, only around 100 truckloads of supplies are entering Gaza a day. This is far below the average of 500 trucks that crossed into the Palestinian enclave before the military offensive, according to OCHA data. The blockade at the Rafah border crossing, which connects Gaza to Egypt, is due to obstacles and restrictions imposed by Israel. There are also limits on how much fuel is allowed into Gaza, with only the minimum needed to avoid the collapse of the most critical services permitted. The entry of aid has been further complicated by telecommunication cuts and the intensifying hostilities.

The United Nations and Egypt have unsuccessfully asked Israel to allow supplies to be sent through Israel’s border crossings, and the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Karim Khan, has warned that preventing the delivery of aid may constitute an international crime. In accordance with international humanitarian law, the evacuation of civilians during conflicts must be accompanied by measures to ensure their security, accommodation, nutrition and hygiene, according to OCHA.

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