The re-election of Democratic senators in four key states confirms Harris’ weakness against the Trump brand

Sam Brown was, on paper, a perfect candidate for the Republicans. The retired Army captain, a war hero who failed in his 2022 bid for the Senate from Nevada, tried again in the November 5 elections, hoping that Donald Trump’s presidential campaign would boost him to defeat Democrat Jacky Rosen, whose Senate seat the Republican Party wanted to challenge her for. Brown served in Afghanistan and was awarded the Purple Heart after being disfigured in 2008 by a Taliban bomb. But his campaign, centered on his dedication to the country and conservative values, was not enough. Rosen retains that Democratic Senate seat. In addition, Brown ultimately received 69,000 fewer votes than Trump, who did triumph in that key Western state. This is not the only case of a dual vote: voters who voted overwhelmingly for the Republican candidate on the presidential ballot, but who opted for representatives of Kamala Harris’ party for the Senate. In the elections of November 5, the upper house renewed a third of its members.

Trump won in all seven key states (Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona), but Democratic candidates defeated their Republican opponents in four of the six swing states where Senate seats were up for grabs. This highlights the weakness of presidential candidate Harris, who was defeated in those same states. Only in Pennsylvania did the president-elect’s victory coincide with that of Republican Senate candidate David McCormick. The former president of Bridgewater, one of the largest investment funds in the United States, snatched the seat from Bob Casey, who has been in the upper house since 2007. In Georgia and North Carolina, there were no Senate seats up for grabs. In the latter, however, a Democrat was elected governor after a scandal sank his Republican rival.

Republicans will control the Senate from January 2025 and have a very high chance of retaining the House of Representatives, pending the end of the vote count. Voters chose Trump in an election marked by disillusionment with the economy and a desire to punish Joe Biden’s administration for its handling of migration, but in key territories they refused to give the Republican candidate a blank check and opted to balance the ballots on both sides with the Senate option.

Thom Reilly, a professor at the University of Arizona School of Public Affairs, explains that this is due to the weight of voters considered independent. “Traditionally, they cast ballots and respond more to the candidates and issues that concern them most, unlike partisan voters, who will always opt for the candidates of their organization,” says the academic.

Registered independent voters supported Harris by 50% to Trump’s 45%, according to an Edison/Reuters exit poll. “It was a completely different story in the key states,” Reilly said. “The Republican won over independents in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, where they gave him victory.” Biden won independents by 13 points four years ago.

The academic points out that this crossover vote can also be seen in the local referendums held that same day in several states. In Arizona, for example, nearly 1.7 million people considered that the right to abortion should be elevated to the local Constitution. Harris received 350,000 fewer votes in that same state than the initiative, despite the fact that her campaign focused heavily on women’s rights. “Many of these voters do not support Trump, but the Democrats were unable to convince them that her message was better on several issues, including the economy,” says Reilly.

This dual vote reflects Trump's power as a political brand. The Republican phenomenon, however, did not spread to many of the Republican candidates in the territories that were in play. Mike Rogers had the difficult mission of becoming the first conservative candidate to win in the Senate race in Michigan, the only one of the decisive states where Harris triumphed among independents. The former congressman, however, was defeated by Elissa Slotkin, considered one of the rising stars within the Democratic Party. Slotkin took the seat of a senator who retired after three legislative terms.

Rogers is no stranger to Michigan. He served as a federal legislator from 2001 to 2015. Yet he received 116,000 fewer votes than Trump in Michigan. It is the largest gap between the president-elect and a Republican candidate. In Wisconsin, banker and financier Eric Hovde received 53,000 fewer votes than the president-elect and lost the Senate race after spending the final stretch of his campaign attacking his rival, Tammy Baldwin, and her girlfriend. In 2012, she became the first openly gay senator on Capitol Hill.

Baldwin is one of the most influential politicians in the Midwestern state and one of the Democrats who performed better in the elections than Harris. The senator was re-elected with 4,500 more votes than the vice president. Adam Kunz, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin, explained last week on public radio that Baldwin achieved better results in 70 of the 72 counties in Wisconsin. “The senator appeals to a group of rural people and in the suburbs outside Milwaukee, Madison, and Eau Claire. Harris did not manage to be a sufficiently attractive candidate in these marginal areas,” said Kunz.

Harris was outperformed by several Democratic candidates. Slotkin in Michigan outpaced her by nearly 16,000 votes. The biggest gap in a swing state was in Arizona. Congressman Rubén Gallego will replace Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic camp to declare herself an independent and ultimately refused to seek re-election.

His opponent is the controversial Kari Lake, a former television star who joined the Trump camp and is one of the most active spokespeople in defense of the non-existent election fraud of four years ago. “She alienated many Republicans, supporters of John McCain and moderates. She also failed to secure the support of former governor Jan Brewer, who is important among Republicans. That hurt her chances,” says professor Reilly.

Harris, however, performed strongly in several Democratic strongholds, where she outperformed established names in American politics. Independent Senator Bernie Sanders received 5,000 fewer votes than Harris in Vermont, the state he has represented for 17 years and from which he won re-election to the Senate. He won 63.3% of the vote (Harris got 64.4%). Last Wednesday, Sanders harshly criticized the Democratic Party, saying that no one should be surprised by the result, since the organization has distanced itself from the working class.

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