Trump, all-powerful president and convicted felon: What legal future awaits him?

The resounding victory of Donald Trump, who will once again assume the presidency in what may be the most extraordinary political comeback in American history, shattered numerous precedents in the early hours of Wednesday. It has been more than a century since a president reclaimed the White House four years after leaving office, and never before has a convicted criminal — guilty, according to a New York jury, of 34 felony counts — been elected to lead the world’s most powerful nation.

Trump’s victory also brings with it an unprecedented concentration of power in his hands. The Republican Party has secured control of the Senate and is on track to take over the House of Representatives, once the final votes are counted, a process that could still take several days. Additionally, the Supreme Court now boasts a superconservative majority of six justices, a composition not seen since the 1930s, with three appointed by Trump himself. This consolidation of power across the executive, legislative, and judicial branches paints a striking picture of a leader who controls all three levels of governance in Washington.

The first major uncertainty about the new, presumably all-powerful president concerns his criminal future and how this concentration of power might influence the cases against him. In addition to the conviction related to payments made to actress Stormy Daniels to silence her about an extramarital affair, Trump faces three other major criminal proceedings. One is in Florida, related to the handling of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, which he took without authorization after leaving the White House following the January 6 Capitol assault. Another case is in Atlanta, where he is being tried for election subversion in Georgia in 2020. The third case is in Washington, concerning his role in the events that led to the January 6 insurrection.

What future awaits Trump in New York?

The first deadline on the horizon for Donald Trump’s trial is set for November 26, when the reading of the sentence is scheduled. This has been postponed twice, thanks in part to the brilliant delay tactics employed by his legal team. Juan Merchan, the judge overseeing the case, has until next Tuesday to decide whether to annul the sentence altogether, based on a ruling by the Supreme Court in early July that granted Trump — by extension, anyone in his position — partial immunity for official duties. If Merchan determines that this ruling applies to the current case, the defendant would not face sentencing.

However, if the judge decides otherwise, Trump’s lawyers are expected to request a delay to file an appeal, which Merchan is likely to approve. This case could — after all appeals are exhausted — end up back in the hands of the Trump-friendly Supreme Court. This potential delay presents a unique challenge: by then, it would no longer be about sentencing a candidate, but a sitting president, a situation without precedent. Given these complications, Merchan has another option: imposing a sentence less than the maximum four-year term allowed for a case like Trump’s, such as probation, house arrest, community service, or a fine.

And in the other three cases?

Unlike the Manhattan criminal case, the other three legal proceedings against Donald Trump involve federal crimes. Two of these — one in Florida and one in Washington — share a common factor: both are being prosecuted by special counsel Jack Smith, Trump’s main adversary and a name high on his “enemies list,” in the words of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Trump has vowed to get rid of Smith. “I would fire him within two seconds,” during an interview with a conservative radio host. “Oh, it’s so easy. So easy.” Such a dismissal would allow Trump, once he regains control of the Justice Department, which hired Smith, to drop those charges.

Trump’s comments about the ease of firing Smith raise another question: what does the special counsel — a figure with a long tradition in American presidential history, from Richard Nixon to Bill Clinton — intend to do about it? It depends on whether the status of the president-elect is considered equivalent to that of a sitting president. If they are viewed as the same, Smith’s days are likely numbered. However, if they are not, Smith would have until January 20 — the day Trump is sworn in for a second term — to continue his efforts.

The case in Washington, in which a federal judge is presiding over Trump’s attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, motivated the Supreme Court’s ruling granting partial immunity to a White House occupant. The key question now is how much this ruling will impact Trump’s case.

Meanwhile, in the Mar-a-Lago documents case, Trump has had a staunch ally in the judge overseeing the matter, Aileen Cannon, who was appointed during his first term. In July, Cannon dismissed the case, two days after the first assassination attempt against Trump, arguing that the role of a special counsel was unconstitutional. That decision has been appealed.

What about the case in Atlanta?

It’s another case that Trump’s defense strategy has managed to stall. The outcome may hinge on whether Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis is disqualified due to a reported romantic relationship with a special prosecutor. That question is not expected to be resolved until 2025. It seems likely that if Willis is removed from the case, no one will be willing to finish what she started once Trump is back in the Oval Office, especially since it is unclear whether a district attorney has the authority to prosecute a sitting president.

Could Trump pardon himself?

He could, with one exception: the New York case. The 34 charges for which he was convicted are state-level offenses, and the federal power of a president does not extend to state matters.

Speaking of pardons, Trump has also pledged to free from prison the hundreds of individuals convicted for their involvement in the Capitol attack. On that violent day, at least 140 police officers were injured, one died, and three insurgents lost their lives. Trump, who has repeatedly decried his legal troubles as “political persecution,” has called these prisoners as “hostages” of the Democrats.

Could he be president in the highly unlikely event that he is sent to jail?

The short answer is yes. Although it seemed possible that his legal issues might discourage voters from voting for him, it is clear that did not happen. The U.S. Constitution not only allows Trump to run for office — even if he’s convicted of felonies — but it also does not prohibit a convicted person from becoming president, even if they are incarcerated. The only exception is for a conviction on a very specific crime: insurrection. While one could debate whether Trump’s role in the Capitol assault on January 6, 2021, fits that definition, it is worth noting that none of the 91 charges he faces in the four cases against him is for insurrection.

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