Be careful what you wish for 10 weeks before the presidential election

Televised campaign debates in the United States are almost as old as television itself. Since their inception, there has been a debate about whether they are useful or not, whether they move the needle in one direction or the other, and whether they really impact voters’ decisions.

The first major debate was held in 1960, and was between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon. The Republican lost, partly through bad luck and partly through his own doing. Before the debate, he had an accident and ended up in the hospital. When he arrived at the debate, he looked gaunt, but refused makeup. Kennedy, in contrast, came across as young, dynamic and handsome. According to polls at the time, more than half of the voters were influenced by the four debates the candidates held, possibly because television was still a big novelty for U.S. society. In his memoirs entitled Six Crises, Nixon writes that he should have “remembered that a picture is worth a thousand words.”

Paradoxically, while the four televised debates in 1960 were highly influential, U.S. presidential candidates did not meet again in a studio until 1976, when there were three debates between Republican Gerald Ford — who had replaced Richard Nixon after his resignation — and Jimmy Carter, who ended up winning the election. Today, televised debates between presidential and vice-presidential candidates are the norm.

Political campaigns in the United States take debates very seriously. They are generally considered to have little impact, for a number of reasons: they are prefabricated, the candidates fail to explain anything in depth, the voters who watch them already follow politics closely and have already made up their minds, and so on. However, as the Biden-Trump debate demonstrated, they can be decisive at a given moment. What’s more, they attract a lot of media attention, both in the lead-up to the debate and afterward.

It would seem that the closer the race, the more important the debates are, and — at least in recent years — the more they fall into confrontation and “spectacle.” According to Nielsen ratings, the debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump remains the most watched in history, with 84.4 million viewers, followed by the 1980 debate between Ronald Reagan (a former Hollywood actor and one of the best communicators of American politics) and Jimmy Carter, which attracted 80.6 million viewers. The Trump-Biden debate, on June 27, is in third place, with 73.1 million viewers.

The format of the debate also plays a big role in a candidate’s success or failure. This year’s presidential debate was different. For the first time since 1988, its terms were not negotiated or organized by the Commission on Presidential Debates, the forum in which the two parties traditionally agree on the format of these meetings.

This time, the Republican and Democratic campaigns reached an agreement directly with the host, CNN. It was decided that there would be no live audience, that the candidates would not be able to consult their teams during commercial breaks, and that if a candidate went over their time, their microphone would be turned off. Given Trump’s chaotic style at these events, where he verbally overwhelms his opponent, the format seemed more favorable to Biden. However, not being able to consult his advisors may have hurt the president. Could Biden’s disastrous result have become an example for Trump of “be careful what you wish for, because it may come true”?

Kamala Harris’ nomination has caught Trump and his campaign off guard, for various reasons. On the one hand, with Biden he had a male opponent who was white and tall like him, but older and frailer, which made the Republican look good. If we go by Nixon’s teachings, that image was worth a thousand words.

With Harris’ arrival, the picture is the opposite: an older man who looks menacing and surly, up against a candidate who is almost 20 years younger, who’s dynamic and quick to smile. Harris is a fresh option, one that could win over Democrats disenchanted with the party, or certain Republicans who would prefer someone more moderate in the White House, even if they are not from their own party.

In addition to being a woman, Harris is African-American and Asian-American, two key ethnic minorities. The Democrat represents women and minorities, who are frequent targets of Trump’s attacks. Given Trump’s history with these groups, especially women, it will be very difficult for him to personally attack Harris in a debate without it backfiring. The closest he has come was falsely claiming that Harris had “turned Black” for the campaign to win over votes from that community; according to Trump, Kamala had always identified as Indian.

The enthusiasm for Harris seen in recent weeks at mass political rallies and at a convention where she received the support of her entire party, including former presidents, makes Trump — who is obsessed with the size of his rallies — even more nervous. Her growing war chest is also likely a cause of concern. According to Forbes, Biden’s campaign, now Harris’s, raised $516.8 million between January 2023 and July 2024, while the Trump campaign “only” raised $268.5 million. In fact, the Harris campaign raised $204.5 million in July 2024 alone, while Trump’s raised $47.5 million.

As for the polls, while the election is still close, the Democratic position appears to have strengthened overall and in highly competitive states. According to a recent analysis by NPR, states such as Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, which were leaning Republican, appear to be very close, while the Republican stronghold of Florida is now only “leaning” that way.

The debates are still to come. Will they be important? In political campaigns, the candidate in the lead avoids them, while the one trailing seeks them out to make up the difference. The Trump and Biden campaigns had agreed to a second debate on September 10, but Trump seems to be giving signals that he will not participate, which will surely change if Harris consolidates her lead. If her good run continues, Harris will no longer want a debate and could refuse to participate, or simply delay negotiating the conditions in an effort to put it off completely.

The format of the debate will be a matter of much discussion. It cannot be forgotten that Trump is a great communicator and a skilled veteran debater. Aside from the 2016 primary debate, which consolidated his leadership and candidacy, he debated Hillary Clinton three times in 2016, and had three showdowns against Biden in 2020, and another one in 2024, giving him a wealth of experience. Harris, for her part, has not taken part in national debates other than in the 2020 primaries, when she faced Mike Pence, but she is pragmatic and does not easily lose her temper like Trump.

There are 10 weeks to go until the election, which is a long time in politics. Harris is on the rise right now, and while the spectacular news stories of Biden’s resignation, the launch of her candidacy, and the Democratic National Convention are behind us, she may hold her own or improve her position, if she doesn’t make a serious mistake.

And if there are indeed debates, although they may not determine the winner, what is certain is that, with such a close and polarized campaign, it will attract a big audience and no doubt be a big spectacle.

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