Thanksgiving dinner will be cheaper this year despite the tariffs

Few things are as important for American families as the cost of Thanksgiving dinner. It is arguably the most important holiday in the country, when millions of people travel to share a meal with their loved ones. This year, the celebration is marked by the rising cost of living, which has led the White House to take extraordinary measures to try to lower the price of groceries. Thanksgiving dinner will be 5% cheaper this year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), an agricultural insurance company that has been compiling the statistics for 40 years.

“Although this is the third consecutive annual decline, consumers have not fully recovered from the sharp increases that took classic dinner to a record high in 2022,” explains Faith Parum, an economist who prepared the report for the agricultural organization.

Parum estimates that this year’s traditional Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people, which includes 12 ingredients such as turkey, green beans, cranberry sauce, bread rolls, sweet potatoes and pumpkin pie, among others, will cost around $55.18, or $5.52 per person. This is the cheapest Thanksgiving dinner since 2021, just before the inflationary crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That year, American families could prepare a traditional dinner for $53.31.

“Despite modest decreases in the cost of a Thanksgiving meal, I know that food prices are a real concern for many families, including in rural America,” said Zippy Duvall, president of the AFBF.

There are other estimates regarding the cost of a Thanksgiving meal. Wells Fargo’s estimate shows a decrease of between 2% and 3%, depending on the shopper’s strategy, according to Michael Swanson, the financial institution’s chief agricultural economist. He estimates that families will pay between $80 and $95 depending on whether they buy store-brand products from supermarkets. “It’s fascinating to explore this difference and why it occurs. The key to the increase in the shopping basket is primarily protein, specifically beef and eggs, which are not typically included in Thanksgiving dinner. Without these products, consumers will find solace in a traditional meal,” he adds.

A political edge

Politics has cast a shadow over this year’s Thanksgiving dinner due to the cost of living. The affordability debate has swept across the United States following the New York City mayoral election a month ago, which was won by Zohran Mamdani. The Socialist Democrat made the cost of living the centerpiece of his campaign, promising to freeze rents on rent-controlled housing and make schools and grocery stores affordable.

The White House has been devising measures to try to regain the initiative. Trump has announced tariff reductions on products such as coffee, beef, and various fruits and vegetables in order to lower the cost of groceries for Americans. He has also promised, without offering many details, a $2,000 check per family, and even threatened meatpacking companies with a federal investigation into their pricing.

“2025 Thanksgiving dinner under Trump is 25% lower than 2024 Thanksgiving dinner under Biden,according to Walmart,” Trump claimed a few days ago. However, economists pointed out that Walmart’s Thanksgiving basket contained fewer and lower-quality products this year than in previous years.

In any case, dinner won’t be the biggest expense for American families this Thursday. “This Thanksgiving will cost the average American nearly $1,000,” reveals a new study by Talker Research. The most expensive item will be travel ($293), followed by gifts ($291) and food ($175).

More expensive side dishes; cheaper turkey

Turkey is the most expensive dish at Thanksgiving dinner. This year, a 15-pound turkey will account for 39% of the total cost of the meal, according to a study by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). This is the lowest share of the meal since 2000. The average over the last 25 years is 43% of the total cost. Families have reduced turkey consumption in their regular diet and mostly reserve it for this holiday. The drop in demand in recent years has made this dish cheaper. Americans consume only 13 pounds of turkey per year, almost three pounds less than six years ago. A 15-pound turkey will cost an average of $21.50, 16% less than in 2024. Conversely, vegetables and other side dishes have become more expensive, which explains why the cost of the turkey represents a smaller portion of the Thanksgiving meal.

The agricultural organization estimates that four items that make up the Thanksgiving dinner decreased in price this year: turkey, stuffing, fresh cranberries, and bread rolls. However, five ingredients—sweet potatoes, frozen peas, a tray of vegetables with carrots and celery, whole milk, and whipped cream—became more expensive. The price of pastry for the traditional pumpkin pie and pie crusts remained virtually unchanged from last year.

Faith Parum explains that the AFBF added some new items to the Thanksgiving dinner in 2018, such as ham, Russet potatoes, and frozen green beans. Including these new ingredients brings the price of the meal to $77.09, or the equivalent of $7.71 per person. “The updated Thanksgiving dinner is virtually unchanged from last year (only 28 cents cheaper than in 2024) due to the increase in the three additional ingredients,” Parum says.

The origin of the celebration

Thanksgiving Day commemorates a supposed celebration by the first Pilgrims to thank the friendly Native Americans who helped them survive their first harsh winter on those lands. The story taught in schools recounts that in 1620, the Mayflower arrived from England in Plymouth, Massachusetts, with about a hundred Pilgrims. The narrative maintains that a Native American leader helped the settlers cultivate the land and endure the harsh continental winter, even though the harsh conditions claimed the lives of half the settlers. According to the historical account, the following year, the survivors organized a three-day celebration to which they invited some Native Americans. The last Thursday of November is considered Thanksgiving Day.

However, Native communities observe National Mourning Day, an annual demonstration that aims to reclaim the true history of Native Americans and dispel the myths surrounding the history of Thanksgiving in the United States, as well as raise awareness of the struggles faced by Native American tribes.

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