Jared Isaacman, Elon Musk’s man at the head of NASA: Is the Martian revolution coming?

The nomination of Jared Isaacman as NASA administrator by U.S. president-elect Donald Trump heralds significant changes at the space agency, which has just decided to continue with the current design of the next manned missions to the Moon, despite delays. Although the real decision on the Artemis program will be in the hands of the new head, provided that Isaacman’s nomination is finally endorsed by the Senate.

The choice seems inspired by the omnipresent figure of Elon Musk, who is increasingly close to the new president. Isaacman has developed an intense relationship with the tech magnate over the past five years; first, as a private client, willing to finance a space flight out of his own pocket, and then, as a collaborator in increasingly ambitious projects. And also as a shareholder. In 2021, his payment processing company, Shift4, invested $27.5 million in shares of SpaceX, Musk’s aerospace company.

Isaacman has been to space twice. On both occasions he was the mission commander, without the help of professional astronauts, and with crew members chosen by lottery or among SpaceX employees who had only received basic training. He is an accomplished aviator, accustomed to piloting one of the fighter planes that he uses to provide training services to military pilots. Isaacman’s commitment to SpaceX is so strong that the first thing to be expected is a greater involvement of Musk’s company with NASA, with whom it already has established contracts worth almost $5 billion in a program that extends until 2030, without taking into account the services it provides in the launches of military payloads and the rental of its Starlink communications network.

Presumably, NASA’s new administrator will help remove some of the bureaucratic hurdles that have been hampering licensing of Starship mega-rocket tests, which actually fall under another federal agency — the FAA — and have been somewhat relaxed lately. Musk is counting on extending those to at least 25 flight authorizations through 2025: Starship flew four times in 2024. And in the future, when the most powerful rocket in history enters regular service, one can expect launches every few days.

This flight cadence is essential to be able to fulfill the commitment to send astronauts to the Moon on the Artemis 3 mission, which has just been delayed until mid-2027. SpaceX must supply the lunar landing vehicle, a modified version of the Starship spacecraft that will be launched into Earth orbit. Once there, it will have to be refueled so that it can make the jump to the Moon; and that will mean at least five more launches. And they will have to be carried out in a very rapid sequence, to avoid the loss of methane and oxygen through evaporation. This is one of the operations that SpaceX still has to demonstrate, even though it has not yet managed to place the Starship in orbit.

Many in the space sector believe that Isaacman’s arrival at NASA could mark the cancellation of the SLS mega-rocket that is to propel the Orion capsules of the Artemis missions. It is a vehicle valid for a single use, which makes it something of a dinosaur when rocket recovery is almost routine these days. The SLS has only flown once, in 2022, when it launched the capsule of the unmanned Artemis 1 mission to the Moon; and its cost is so enormous — some $4 billion per launch — that the agency’s limited budget only allows for one shot per year.

NASA has never been comfortable with the SLS. In some ways it was a political imposition, more to favor the American space industry than for practical reasons. SLS parts are made in virtually all 50 states, so lawmakers have been reluctant to cancel a project that employs so many skilled workers. Isaacman, in line with Musk’s government efficiency program, may deliver the final blow. He may keep producing two more units to meet the goal of getting astronauts to the Moon before China, but beyond that, the future of the launcher is very bleak. Its development has so far devoured more than $18 billion. In any case, the new administrator will have to take a crash course to compensate for his lack of experience in dealing with the complex political framework in Washington.

Meanwhile, current NASA Administrator Bill Nelson doesn’t believe Isaacman will replace the Artemis spacecraft and rocket with Musk’s Starship. “First of all, there is one human-rated spacecraft that is flying and has already flown beyond the Moon, farther than any other human-rated spacecraft, and that’s the SLS combined with Orion,” Nelson said last week at a press conference after announcing a new postponement of the Artemis 2 and 3 missions. He added: “I expect that this is going to continue. I don’t see the concern that you’re suddenly going to have Starship take over everything.”

‘Artemis’, in suspense

The problem with abandoning the SLS is that the U.S. currently has no alternative for launching Orion capsules to the Moon. Not even SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy can do it. That’s why some are already thinking of an unusual replacement: the New Glenn, the new rocket from Blue Origin — Jeff Bezos’ company and a competitor of SpaceX — supplemented with a booster stage from another manufacturer. The only drawback is that it has not flown yet: its maiden flight, scheduled for last October, is still pending.

The New Glenn is a heavy launch vehicle, with which Blue Origin wanted to join the space race with its sights set on the Moon. Bezos’s space company also has a contract with NASA to design a model of lunar lander — the Blue Moon — which will, in principle, be more advanced than the one being built by SpaceX. If everything goes as planned, missions 3 and 4 of the Artemis program should land on our satellite with the module built by SpaceX; and from mission 5 onwards, with the Blue Origin module. These plans, however, may be shaken by the new administration.

Another factor to consider is the pressure exerted by the Chinese space program. Beijing has just announced plans for a manned flight around the Moon in 2029, followed by a landing in 2030. And they already have the first models of their modules under construction, both for the return flight and for the descent to the surface. These are much more classic designs than SpaceX’s enormous lunar landing module — a variant of its Starship — and, consequently, they are likely to be less subject to surprises.

With that schedule, the margin that NASA has to land on the Moon before the Chinese do is not very reassuring. Hence the convenience of supporting the Artemis program as it is currently structured and also promoting private initiatives. One school of thought hopes that, with Isaacman at the helm, NASA will give a new push to commercial spacecraft. The beneficiary will not only be SpaceX but also its competitor Blue Origin, although it is true that at present the gap separating both companies is enormous. That gap may be shortened if New Glenn meets the expectations that have been placed on it. For the moment, a certain migration of technical personnel from the federal agency and its contractors to private companies is already beginning to be noticed. The big loser will undoubtedly be Boeing, especially after its recent bad experiences with its Starliner capsule, whose two astronauts from the U.S. space agency remain stuck in the International Space Station, waiting to return to Earth in February in a SpaceX capsule.

Mars at all costs?

What seems beyond doubt is that the Mars journey project is going to receive much more significant support. That has been Musk’s obsession from the beginning and the ultimate reason for SpaceX’s existence. The fact that he has already turned his aerospace company into a fabulous short-term business does not make his long-term, almost romantic, vision of colonizing another world in order to turn humans into a multi-planetary species less attractive.

It remains to be seen whether the diversion of resources to that goal will affect other areas of NASA’s activity. In particular, robotic planetary exploration. Expeditions to Jupiter’s icy moons and the Trojan family of asteroids are already underway. And a probe to Venus and another to Titan are planned for the remainder of the decade.

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