Boomerang effect in Canada

Canada’s parliamentary elections on Monday produced the first concrete effects of the string of threats that underpin Donald Trump’s foreign policy. The winner of the election, perceived by voters as an act of reaffirmation against the U.S. president, was Liberal leader Mark Carney. The candidate was facing the most decisive vote in the country’s recent history while struggling with the inherited legacy of his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, after 10 years in office; yet Carney managed to garner the support of 43% of voters. It was a clear victory, albeit without an absolute majority, over the Conservatives, who had been leading in voting intention for months.

Carney, an economist who led the central banks of England and Canada, won thanks to his clear message in defense of sovereignty. The sense of pride fueled by Trump’s attacks was mixed in these elections with calculations on strategic voting despite Trudeau’s questionable legacy. The Liberal leader, who has been acting prime minister since March, assured that he will govern with all parties and all territories. This is not surprising, as he may need the Bloc Québécois to support a minority government. He has also stated that he will open up a dialogue with his American counterpart on the economy and security, but issued a clear warning: “He will never break us.” The trade war launched by the Republican leader, especially against his neighbors, Mexico and Canada, uses accusations of security to justify the tariffs. But in addition to the 25% levies on cars, steel and aluminum, Trump has repeatedly threatened to annex the country. He made this clear again on Monday, wishing “good luck to the great people of Canada” and suggesting that they vote for him.

Conservative Party candidate Pierre Poilievre shares the same ideology as the New York tycoon and had emerged as a potential member of the Trump international. However, as the campaign progressed, he distanced himself from the U.S. president and even asked him to stay out of the country’s internal affairs. On Monday night, Poilievre, who has lost his seat in parliament, asserted that he would offer his support to the winner to defend the country’s sovereignty. Trump’s attacks ultimately had a boomerang effect at the polls. The message of resistance conveyed by voters now compels Carney to stand firm in the face of the White House’s demands. What happened in Canada is an important precedent and could herald new international balances triangulating with Europe and Asia. The eyes of the world now turn to Ottawa to see how this response to Washington will unfold.

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