Why the thaw between Colombia and Venezuela works in Trump’s favor

It was a bilateral meeting, but a third country had a major interest in what was being discussed. The encounter on Friday April 24, in Caracas between the acting president of Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, and the Colombian president, Gustavo Petro, wrapped with an important statement: the two countries will draw up joint military plans and open mechanisms to share intelligence “immediately.”

This is a milestone in terms of security, because, despite being neighbors, Bogotá and Caracas have not shared information for decades, military sources say. It remains to be seen how this declaration of intent will play out on the ground, but the announcement sends a dual message: on the one hand, to criminal groups and, on the other, to U.S. President Donald Trump, who needs a stable and secure Venezuela to pursue his agenda.

Colombia and Venezuela have two clear enemies: the Second Marquetalia, one of the dissident armed offshoots of the now-defunct Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), and the National Liberation Army (ELN), a guerrilla group that has been going for more than 60 years. Both armed gangs have Colombian origins, but they move and commit crimes in both countries. They have sown terror on the border while being active in transnational drug trafficking, and the illegal mining business, a sector especially strategic for Trump. “What foreign investor is going to come to areas dominated by these gentlemen? None,” reflects a diplomatic source.

Among the Trump administration’s declared interests following its military intervention in Venezuela on January 3 and the capture of Nicolás Maduro, is the exploitation of oil. It also has its eye on rare earth minerals and gold extraction, businesses currently in the hands of organized crime. “That’s how capricious and paradoxical politics is,” says the diplomatic source. “Trump has interests that coincide: he needs gold and stability for investors. But, unlike oil, gold is not under state control; it is in areas where the ELN is in control,” he adds. The new bilateral cooperative agreement serves all three countries, he adds.

Trump needs stability to attract investors, and Venezuela understands that, as long as it hosts groups classified as narco-terrorists by the State Department, the U.S. has the excuse to stay. Where Colombia is concerned, after the failure of negotiations with the ELN launched by the Petro government in 2022, any solution to that war has to involve Venezuela. “As long as the Venezuelan government continues to support the Colombian insurgent group, it cannot be completely defeated nor is it likely to sign a peace agreement,” explained Insight Crime in December. The capture of Maduro has opened up new possibilities.

The April 24 bilateral summit reunited Petro and Rodríguez, two old friends who had been separated for too long. She thanked the Colombian president for having been one of the first people who called to “show solidarity” with Venezuelans on that traumatic January 3. But the meeting gave particular prominence to Colombia’s defense minister, Pedro Sánchez, who will be responsible for implementing the roadmap. What stood out, however, was the absence on the Venezuelan side of his counterpart, the newly appointed Gustavo González

While the meeting was taking place, an official post on social networks — now deleted — showed González at an event commemorating the 216th anniversary of the Ministry of People’s Power for Defense and the Bolivarian National Armed Forces. In his place, was the all-powerful Diosdado Cabello, Minister of the Interior and the third most relevant figure in the Venezuelan government after the siblings Delcy and Jorge Rodríguez.

As soon as Delcy Rodríguez said goodbye to Petro, the U.S. embassy published a photo of Delcy Rodríguez meeting the new U.S. trade representative in Venezuela, John Barrett for the first time. Barret is the actor on the ground who will try to ensure the implementation of Trump’s stabilization, recovery and transition plan.

“This has a very strong impact on criminals on the border. No government tolerates them,” a senior Colombian military source told EL PAÍS. “In terms of intelligence and operations, an opportunity opened up to exchange information and develop [simultaneous] mirror operations, each in its own territory but linked,” he explained. Having launched the message of intent, the challenge now is to implement it. “It’s not going to be easy, but the important thing is to make a start,” said the source.

Years ago, the ELN crossed the border and established themselves on the Venezuelan side. The Colombian guerrillas then expanded in Venezuela thanks to what would seem to be a tacit agreement with the Maduro regime. They could operate freely in exchange for protecting the Venezuelan government against a hypothetical incursion by Colombia, traditionally an ally of the United States.

The guerrillas settled like ticks in the states of Vichada, Amazonas, Apure and Arauca, branching into illegal gold mining on top of drug trafficking, destroying the jungle and polluting rivers with mercury. Two factors smoothed their advance: the 2019 break in relations between Bogotá and Caracas — which left the border without military cooperation — and the weakness of a Venezuelan state, which was focused on controlling cities and containing a largely urban opposition.

The ELN, which once drew inspiration from the Cuban Revolution, was also a key element in Maduro’s contingency plans for a possible U.S. invasion, according to several sources consulted by EL PAÍS in Caracas. While Trump deployed planes and combat ships in the Caribbean Sea, the Venezuelan regime believed that the U.S. offensive, if it came, would be launched from land, specifically from Colombia. They considered that the ELN could serve as a resistance or at least as a generator of chaos in the face of the invasion. But, when the moment came on January 3, no one heard a shot from the guerrillas in defense of the revolution.

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