Venezuelan opposition regroups to broker influence in the transition
Decimated by years of political persecution, opposition parties are emerging from clandestinity after the removal of Nicolás Maduro
The repression that followed Venezuela’s presidential elections in July 2024 devastated the internal structures of the parties within the Unitary Platform, the umbrella alliance that brings together the most important Venezuelan opposition parties. These organizations are the political expression of a widespread desire for change in Venezuela and are, in theory, destined to play a leading role in shaping a transition to democracy. However, they are undergoing a costly process of reconstruction in a still uncertain and contradictory political environment, in which, while an Amnesty Law is passed in the National Assembly and political prisoners are released, the personal residence of Magalli Meda, a national leader of Vente Venezuela, has been confiscated.
The general fate of the most important figures within organizations like Popular Will, Justice First, and Vente Venezuela has been exile or imprisonment. The same has befallen some activists from Democratic Action, Citizen Encounter, and Radical Cause. And the situation hasn’t improved with the recently approved Amnesty Law, which has placed conditions and difficulties on the return of exiles. There aren’t many opposition politicians left in the country.
Diosdado Cabello, a powerful figure within the regime, has kept his word, having prophesied to his adversaries during a legislative debate following Maduro’s arrest: “We’re going to screw them over.” “Hopefully, this will be the moment for us to have a new opposition in the country,” he declared at the time. A significant portion of the political prisoners registered up to January of this year belong to parties affiliated with the Unitary Platform or Vente Venezuela.
The Venezuelan opposition includes several smaller, moderate factions, tolerated by the regime, that have chosen to compete in the Chavista elections and hold seats in the legislature. They have actively participated in the debate and drafting of the Amnesty Law and are highly critical of María Corina Machado. The most prominent of these are Un Nuevo Tiempo (New Era), a founding party of the Unitary Platform and the faction of Justice First that abandoned the party with Henrique Capriles. Besides Capriles, notable figures in this group include Manuel Rosales, Tomás Guanipa, Omar Barboza, and Stalin González.
There are others, each with a small legislative bloc: Neighborhood Force, Pencil Alliance, Centrados, and Progressive Advance. Relations between the opposition that upholds the electoral results of July 28 and demands more democracy, and those that have chosen to follow the institutional path of Chavismo in search of possible results, are currently very strained, even on a personal level.
Despite the apparent institutional opening attempted by the Chavista regime, the conditions for engaging in politics remain far from clear. The sheer number of politicians affected by exile, imprisonment, clandestinity, and even death in recent years makes it difficult to motivate voluntary activism. The Chavista regime itself acknowledges the existence of some 11,000 people facing legal proceedings. Furthermore, the releases that occurred within the context of the amnesty have brought with them the sinister stories from Nicolás Maduro’s prisons, which are now circulating on social media and in private conversations.
The politicians who have recently emerged from hiding (Andrés Velásquez, Delsa Solórzano, Henry Ramos Allup) are only now beginning to make public statements. The political opening the country is experiencing has encountered a society paralyzed by fear of repression and a dissident leadership fragmented and under attack. Since 2023, the political strategy of the anti-Chavista movements has been in the hands of María Corina Machado, the country’s most popular leader. Simply mentioning her name, like that of Edmundo González Urrutia, the winning candidate in the 2024 presidential elections, has become a public taboo and risks imprisonment for anyone who invokes, justifies, or praises them.
Machado works actively from exile, but, against her will, she has to do so far removed from the daily lives of the people in Venezuela. The same is true for Edmundo González, Leopoldo López, Julio Borges, Carlos Vecchio, Freddy Guevara, David Smolansky, Carlos Ocariz, and Antonio Ledezma, among other politicians considered the public face of democratic activism in recent years.
“We are not fragmented: the Unitary Platform has been meeting throughout this entire time, even clandestinely,” says Delsa Solórzano, founder of Citizen Encounter and one of the most emblematic opposition leaders still active in the country. “Each of the Platform’s parties is working hard to prevent fragmentation; we are supporting and complementing each other,” she adds. Opposition leaders are already beginning to visit neighborhoods on the urban periphery and in the interior of the country. “We are consolidating our cohesion, waiting for the moment to return to politics. They shouldn’t underestimate us,” Solórzano emphasized.
Among the parties of the Unitary Platform, sources within the organizations affirm, there is consensus on priority and achievable issues: strengthening ties with social movements, the families of political prisoners, and wage demands; upholding the results of the July 2024 elections; and, in the medium term, demanding greater democracy to pave the way for a genuine political transition. “There’s a good atmosphere within the Platform, much better than we had some time ago,” says a leader of the Radical Cause party who preferred to remain anonymous. “We want to expand this bloc, strengthen it; that’s what we’re working on. We haven’t stopped meeting and working, even if people don’t see it.”
Much remains to be done, however. The political future in Venezuela remains shrouded in uncertainty. In the current scenario, the course of events suggests that two distinct strategies are emerging within the opposition. Moderate sectors will focus on consolidating a dialogue with the Miraflores Palace to try to influence the status quo, prioritizing the economic agenda to improve living conditions and alleviate the daily tensions. The majority faction of the Unitary Platform, on the other hand, will seek to return to the streets and exercise its constitutional rights to pave the way for democracy.
“One problem facing opposition sectors that now have access to the corridors of power is their lack of clear representation and social acceptance,” states Guillermo Aveledo Coll, political analyst and dean of legal and political studies at the Metropolitan University of Caracas. “Conversely, the groups allied in the Unitary Platform, which have historically represented the social demand for political change, do not have access to institutions and decision-making spaces.”
Despite everything, the atmosphere in the country following the U.S. attack on January 3 has renewed the spirit for citizen protest. Everything has been tentative, but this is one of the most noticeable features of this new political moment. Now, the calls to action are being led by the student movement, initiatives from academic sectors, and families of political prisoners. Opposition leaders have begun talks with members of the diplomatic corps present in the country.
“For those entrenched in the system, it’s difficult to criticize those in power beyond making minor demands, which weakens their legitimacy,” says Aveledo. “For the rest of the opposition, the path forward must be to focus their demands not only on public policy issues but also on the country’s democratization agenda.” The analyst observes that a structural difficulty for both tendencies lies in the complexity of “any attempt at coordination between them.”
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