The Catholic Church faces an uncertain conclave with a crowded field of candidates

The search is on for a pope who is both a pastor and a manager — a combination that is proving difficult to find. The legacy of Francis’ 12-year papacy still lingers, casting a long shadow over the process. Cardinals are looking for someone who matches his charisma and empathy; as electing a pontiff who lacks personal chemistry and retreats into the insularity of the Vatican would feel like a step backward.

However, it is also expected that the next pope will know how to govern, build consensus and instill order, while also articulating doctrine in a clear and convincing manner. The prevailing mood within the conclave is leaning toward continuity, albeit with certain adjustments; being likable and popular isn’t enough. There is talk of affable, charismatic cardinals, along with lesser-known figures who might prove unexpectedly impressive. But there is also a palpable unease about untested choices; prophets spark concern.

“Many will no longer jump into the pool without knowing if there’s water in it; they believe Bergoglio [Pope Francis] wasn’t what they were sold,” confides one prelate. It’s important to remember that the then-Archbishop of Buenos Aires was considered a conservative. The leading papal contenders in public speculation are European or North American, though the search for a surprise candidate continues in Asia and Africa. But time is running out: the conclave begins this Wednesday at 4:30 p.m., and no clear names are on the table — at least, none that are known. Soon it will be revealed whether any maneuvering has been successfully kept under wraps.

Outside, what continues to leak is confusion—for reasons that are already well known. “Make a mess,” Pope Francis once said, and that’s exactly what he’s done, leaving behind deep internal divisions — both for and against him — and a record 133 cardinal electors from 71 countries. Most of them don’t know each other well, and 108 are participating in their first conclave. There’s a growing sense that it’s time to vote, if only to begin clarifying the field and gauging the real support behind the many papal contenders. By now, the list of names floated in recent weeks has grown to around 30, including two Spaniards: the Archbishop of Rabat, Cristóbal López, and Ángel Fernández, Pro-Prefect of the Dicastery for Religious Life.

Criticism of general congregations

On the other hand, the general congregations — the daily assemblies of cardinals that concluded this Tuesday after 12 sessions — have done little to clarify ideas as hoped. In fact, they have drawn criticism for amounting to little more than a succession of speeches, typically 20 to 30 per session, where each cardinal took the floor in turn to speak on whatever topic he deemed important. While a wide range of issues was addressed, listeners were left with only a superficial impression of each speaker — five or 10 minutes to get a rough idea, but little more.

“It’s not a lot of time to understand what that person is like, what they think, it’s not easy,” confessed Cardinal Tarcisius Isao Kikuchi of Tokyo. “Most of us have never met, and this is the first time we’re together. You could say we don’t know each other,” he added. In fact, some even think the congregations were organized this way on purpose, pointing to the Secretary of State and frontrunner, Pietro Parolin. The idea being that cardinals wouldn’t have enough time to get to know one another and would end up trusting the most respected voices when it comes time to vote.

“We haven’t spoken to each other during the meetings,” the French Cardinal of Algiers, Jean-Paul Vesco, calmly confessed. He complained that the congregations are organized “like the old synods,” without discussion panels, and believes they should be reformed. Pope Francis’ preference for appointing simple bishops close to the people has brought noticeable changes in the way some speak openly with journalists, in a way that wasn’t seen before.

The last cardinal to arrive in Rome last weekend was the Archbishop of Jakarta, Indonesia, who attended his first assembly on Monday, the tenth session. Another session took place that afternoon. In total, he listened to more than 50 interventions from fellow cardinals in a single day, and upon leaving, he said: “What great confusion.” Ignatius Suharyo Hardjoatmodjo may have expected things to be clearer by now. As in previous days, Tuesday’s final session once again brought up “the issue of divisions within the Church,” according to the brief summary provided by the Holy See press office.

At the last minute, a minor scandal erupted involving one of the two cardinal electors, who had cited health reasons for not attending the conclave. Kenyan Cardinal John Njue unexpectedly declared in an interview that he had not received an official invitation to Rome and didn’t know why. After the initial confusion, the Kenyan nunciature confirmed that he had indeed received an invitation but was unable to travel due to health concerns. It is unclear how this incident will unfold, but it could have implications if someone uses it to challenge the election of the pope in the future.

Cross-faction support

Predictions on the eve of a conclave are almost always rendered comical a few days later, but there is usually some prior framework. What happens next is another matter. According to Vatican sources and analysis from the Italian press, the strongest candidate remains Pietro Parolin, who is believed to have around 40 votes.

“The problem is that this may be his ceiling,” opines one Vatican source. He is supposed to have cross-party support, among both progressives and conservatives, as well as from several continents due to his diplomatic network. However, his opposition is just as widely spread.

The first three votes — one on Wednesday as soon as the cardinals enter the Sistine Chapel, followed by two on Thursday morning and two in the afternoon — will be crucial in determining whether Parolin’s candidacy can gain traction. If not, his votes will shift to someone else. If a quick white smoke appears, between the fourth and fifth votes, Parolin could emerge as the chosen one. But if Thursday’s last smoke is black, the situation will open up, and surprises may arise.

Candidates aligned with continuity to Pope Francis’s papacy have emerged, including Jean-Marc Aveline, Archbishop of Marseille; Mario Grech, the Maltese cardinal and Francis’s right-hand man in the synods; and Robert Francis Prevost, often considered the dark horse of this conclave. While Prevost is from the United States — the main obstacle to his election — he is seen as “not very American.” He has worked for decades in Peru, has governance experience, is conciliatory, and knows the Vatican well. Furthermore, he is believed to be a good potential interlocutor with Donald Trump in the current geopolitical climate.

A Filipino cardinal, Pablo Virgilio David, 66, has also gained surprising momentum over the past 48 hours. He made a strong impression with his speech, but he remains little known in Rome, has no curial experience, and many cardinals want someone capable of leading the Vatican.

The Italian press has been pushing the theory for weeks that there are two other strong Italian candidates who could be considered if Parolin’s candidacy collapses: Matteo Zuppi, president of the Italian Bishops’ Conference; and Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Patriarch of Jerusalem, who has support from the conservative wing. The chances of Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle have reportedly diminished.

All speculation will soon come to an end. On Wednesday morning, the cardinals will witness the destruction of Pope Francis’s Fisherman’s Ring and his papal lead seal. A new one is already prepared, awaiting the 267th pope of the Catholic Church.

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