The first battle: Claudia Sheinbaum moves against Trump’s immigration policy

The tightening of the United States’ immigration policy is at the heart of Mexico’s concerns. This has been made clear by the statements of President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has already activated her Cabinet to seek alternatives to temper Donald Trump’s heavy-handed discourse and his campaign promise to deport up to one million immigrants in an irregular situation each year. Although there are still two months left until the Republican’s inauguration, the Mexican government is already working on documents to demonstrate with hard data the contributions of the Mexican diaspora to the economy of both countries, as well as the benefits of the trade agreement between Mexico, the U.S. and Canada (T-MEC), which will be reviewed in 2026. The signals that Sheinbaum has sent, however, indicate that the migration crisis is for now the priority front for Mexico and the first major obstacle to be resolved in the bilateral relationship. “We do not agree that migrants should be treated as criminals,” said the president in her most recent press conference.

Sheinbaum indicated that the working document on the Mexican community will highlight facts such as the payment of taxes by migrants, the quality of their work and their importance in key areas, such as the agricultural and construction sectors. The president said that she convened her Cabinet on Tuesday to outline the route on other crucial issues for the diplomatic relationship, such as trade and security. “We have a plan and we are developing it,” she said in an effort to call for calm amid the uncertainty caused by Trump’s victory in the November 5 presidential election.

A day earlier, Sheinbaum stood up for the Mexican community, in what was her most forceful statement in favor of migrants since she assumed the presidency on October 1. “Our countrymen and women are heroes and heroines, workers who support their families and the Mexican economy, but also, let it be heard loud and clear, they contribute to the economy of the United States,” she said at the commemoration of Revolution Day. “Yesterday I made a special emphasis and we will continue to do so.”

Remittances are one of the pillars of the Mexican economy and account for around 4% of GDP, according to official estimates. Last year, over $63 billion was received in remittances from abroad. The more than five million undocumented Mexicans in the United States are not the only cause for concern for the Sheinbaum government. Although specialists say that it is unrealistic to carry out a million deportations annually, the incoming president’s plan is for hundreds of thousands of irregular immigrants to be returned to Mexican territory, regardless of their nationality. There is also the threat of closing the border, which would have a direct impact on trade and the transit of people. “In the event that there are deportations, we will receive the Mexicans, and we have a plan for that,” Sheinbaum insisted.

The plan is not limited to confronting Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric. Sheinbaum announced that Mexico’s consular network in the United States, the largest of any country, would be strengthened to protect the interests of the Mexican community and give them tools to defend themselves from abuse and raids by immigration authorities. However, the approved budget for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was reduced from 9.994 billion pesos ($488.5 million) to 9.294 billion for next year. Mexico’s calculation is that if it shows itself to be an effective ally that delivers results, the threats of the Trumpists will be moderated and thus an extreme scenario will be avoided.

Trump has shown no signs of moderation and is focused on sending signals to his voters that he will fulfill his campaign promises. He has named Cuban-American Senator Marco Rubio — a harsh critic of Mexico and former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Sheinbaum’s mentor — as secretary of state. He also appointed Tom Homan as “border czar” and South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem as secretary of Homeland Security to complete a team of hawks to implement the shift in immigration policy.

Homan, for example, has said that the designation of Mexican cartels as terrorist groups is imminent, adding more pressure and tension to the border control agenda. He also welcomed the donation of more than 500 hectares of land in Texas, announced this week, to build large human warehouses to serve as temporary migrant detention camps and facilitate deportations. In a scenario of complete uncertainty, political volatility, and great anticipation on both sides of the border, migration is already emerging as one of the main sources of friction between the two countries. Sheinbaum has said she will seek a meeting with Trump’s team, although there is still no date for one to take place.

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