Trump’s return to power increases global geopolitical uncertainty

The resounding victory of the always unpredictable Donald Trump, 78, at the November 5 election has shaken up the global chessboard. The return to the White House, as of next January 20, of the Republican business magnate, whose Republican Party will also be in control of both chambers, increases the uncertainties in the realm of international relations and fuels speculation about the role that Washington will play in the geopolitical balances during the next four years. Against this backdrop, the president-elect will be the protagonist — even if an absent one — of the G20 summit that is being held this Monday and Tuesday in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). America’s outgoing president, 81-year-old Joe Biden, and China’s Xi Jinping, 71, who met in Peru on Saturday, are expected to participate. The Asian leader called for “certainty” in the relationship between both superpowers.

The meeting of the world’s major economies is the first major test of the climate generated by the imminent and radical change of course in the United States. With the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon adding attacks and deaths on a daily basis; with trade tensions between the West and China increasing and NATO anxious about potential changes, concern is rife in both Europe and Latin America. The fight against climate change will suffer an enormous impact with the withdrawal from negotiations and debates of the second-largest emitter of polluting gases. President Biden visited the Brazilian Amazon this Sunday, where he pledged $50 million to help preserve the largest tropical forest in the world.

As was the case last year at the G20 in New Delhi, Vladimir Putin will not be present. The Russian leader has an international arrest warrant out for him over war crimes in Ukraine.

Brazil returns to the scene

Hosting the G20 leaders in Rio is a milestone in Brazil’s return to the international spotlight. It had been a priority for the host, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 79, following the diplomatic isolation of the Bolsonaro years. On Sunday, Lula stressed these two priorities at the close of a gathering of mayors prior to the summit. He stressed that the fight against climate change can promote “a broader urban agenda of inclusion and social justice” and that “the ecological transition is a valuable opportunity to generate employment and income for youth.”

The Brazilian president also took advantage of his speech to condemn the war in Gaza and make a plea for peace. “Talking about governance reform also means repudiating the destruction caused by wars,” he stressed. “The Gaza Strip, one of the oldest urban settlements in humanity, has seen two thirds of its territory destroyed by indiscriminate bombing. There will be no peace in the cities if there is no peace in the world.” This message was echoed by the words of the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, who called for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, respect for international law in Ukraine and an end to violence in Sudan, and redoubled his commitment to multilateralism and against isolationist tendencies such as those displayed by the president-elect of the United States.

Security deployment

On Sunday soldiers, rifles in hand, deployed for the summit, making for a stark contrast with the locals coming and going in bathing suits around Copacabana Beach. The most central area of Rio was deserted, with many shops closed and few residents around, because city officials have declared a six-day holiday.

Lula and Brazilian diplomacy would like this G20 to focus on the issues they consider truly essential: ending hunger and poverty, advancing the environmental transition in an effective way, and reforming the U.N. These issues, in their eyes, are being unfairly overshadowed by conflicts that some countries fuel instead of negotiating to resolve them.

The summit's final declaration was still stuck on Sunday on the paragraph referring to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Weeks of negotiations have still not produced a formulation that satisfies everyone. The issue will be addressed by the leaders on Monday.

Major challenges

The new stage that opens with Trump’s second term poses enormous challenges on both sides of the Atlantic and is still surrounded by great unknowns, but the signals sent by the Republican leader after his victory provide some clues about the scope of the change that is coming. On the one hand, there are his campaign promises: mass deportation of immigrants, 60% tariffs on imports from China, strong support for Israel, withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and maximum pressure on Iran. On the other hand, there are the Cabinet appointments. The composition of his cabinet anticipates, for example, some probable positions of his Administration in foreign policy.

The future Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, 53, has a very tough attitude on Beijing, he is markedly pro-Israel, and he is opposed to military aid to Ukraine. His appointment has raised expectations in Latin America, especially in the most radical sectors of the Venezuelan, Cuban and Nicaraguan opposition, which demand greater forcefulness against the governments of Miguel Díaz-Canel, Nicolás Maduro and Daniel Ortega.

Rubio, a son of Cuban immigrants who speaks fluent Spanish, is the first Latino to hold the post. However, one of his priorities will be to implement Trump’s tough immigration agenda along with Kristi Noem, the new Secretary of Homeland Security, and manage its impact on the affected countries. And, more generally, to lead an isolationist policy.

The impact of Trump’s return to power is likely to be felt especially strongly in countries like Ukraine and Mexico. The former has been threatened with draining or even cutting off the huge flow of U.S. aid to counter the Russian invasion. The latter has been threatened with the expulsion of millions of immigrants, harsh tariffs if the Mexican government does not comply with Trump’s immigration program, and bombing the factories where drug traffickers produce fentanyl. Trump has also proclaimed his intention not to get involved in major wars: he wants the military to focus on the mass deportation he promised, and the man chosen to lead the world’s largest army with the largest budget is a Fox News host who is a war veteran.

One of the great unknowns is what Trump’s attitude towards China will be, considering that this is a big market for Tesla, owned by Elon Musk, who has become inseparable from the president-elect. Unlike some members of his cabinet, the president-elect is not an ideologue. His specialty is negotiating and closing deals. And that is precisely the terrain where some countries place their hopes for navigating Trump’s next term.

The summit will also serve as a first opportunity for Lula to meet his Argentine counterpart, the far-right Javier Milei, 54, who was the first president to meet with Trump following the latter’s election victory, and for the Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, 62, to launch her international agenda. Brazil is concerned about the growing objections that the Argentine envoys are raising in the final stretch of the G20 negotiations. Lula hopes that the French leader Emmanuel Macron, who visited Milei in Buenos Aires on Sunday, will smooth things over.

Unlike the atmosphere after Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016, foreign ministries around the world now have a better idea about what to expect. But the tycoon is known for being impulsive, easily influenced and given to notable swings. And on this occasion, he is joined by the richest man in the world, Elon Musk, with interests in countless sectors of the economy. Lula’s wife, Janja da Silva, was speaking of disinformation at a G20 side event when she insulted the billionaire: “Fuck you, Elon Musk,” she said in English. To which he replied: “You are going to lose the next election.”

Lula, a leader forged in trade union negotiations, defends a multipolar world. He remains a geopolitical tightrope walker, with allies on the left and the right, although his figure no longer shines as it once did. But the growing hostility between the United States and China, and the very complexity of the world, has considerably narrowed the field for this game of tightrope walking. Maintaining the neutrality that Brazil, a middle power, prides itself on is becoming increasingly difficult. Lula’s benevolence towards Putin in Ukraine first disconcerted and then outraged his Western allies. To the G20 partners, Brazil emphasizes its role as a member of the Global South; within the BRICS, it boasts of being a Western democracy.

Even if Lula were to succeed at this Rio summit in reviving the global debate on the fight against hunger, which is suffocating 722 million people in the world, especially in Africa, Asia and Latin America, Trump’s return to power represents a huge obstacle. Even if the club of major economies reaches an agreement to form an alliance against poverty, the little or no interest shown by the Republican in international cooperation — even in investment formulas aimed at alleviating migratory flows — complicates the viability of the Brazilian leader’s proposals.

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