Independence vote may elude Mas following Catalan ballot

In politics, success or failure is measured on the basis of previously created expectations. If that of Artur Mas in his pursuit of Catalan sovereignty was to achieve an absolute majority in the regional assembly, to allow his center-right nationalist CiU coalition to hold a referendum, the designs of the ruling premier appear destined to prove fruitless.

According to the results of a Metroscopia survey conducted for EL PAÍS, CiU will fall short of the 68 seats needed for an absolute majority in regional elections to be held on Sunday. If voter intention holds true, Mas’ coalition is expected to garner slightly fewer votes than it did in 2010 at 37.3 percent, which would give it 62 seats, the same number it currently possesses.

During his campaign, Mas has stated that a referendum will take place only if he enjoys “an exceptional majority,” at the ballot box.

CiU’s only advantage is that it faces a more fragmented and weakened opposition than the sitting parliament currently has, especially as the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) is expected to suffer at the hands of voters much as its sister parties have done in recent elections in Galicia and the Basque Country. PSC leader Pere Navarro is likely to find himself overseeing the third regional force, behind the Popular Party, and there is a significant chance that the Socialists may be beaten into fourth by the Catalan Republican Left (ERC).

The sovereignty debate has polarized the parties’ political message more than any other and left the PSC imprisoned between the extremes of the independentists and the constitutionalists. The PSC’s rallying cry for federalism is expected to see it lose six points and gain just over 12 percent of the vote — leading to a loss of 10 seats. The PP (13.2 percent) is forecast to gain just one extra seat.

The beneficiary of voter antipathy toward the PP and PSC will be ERC, which is expected to gain up to eight seats and, importantly for Mas, provide the impetus needed to hold a referendum. According to the survey, the parties within the pro-sovereignty sphere are forecast to gain 82 seats, up from 76 in 2010. The PSC, PP and the anti-independence platform Ciutadans are expected to shrink collectively from 50 seats to 43. The latter is expected to double its representation to six seats.