Socialist contest proving hard to call

The fracture running through the Socialist Party in the wake of last November's crushing electoral defeat became more evident than ever this weekend, with regional meetings called to choose the 956 delegates who will attend the upcoming party convention in Seville to select a new secretary general. Ex-Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is standing down.

Both contenders for the post, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba and Carme Chacón, claimed to have obtained the larger number of supporting delegates, although the fact is that internal division and secret voting make it very hard to ascertain which way each participant will eventually vote. For the Socialist Party as a whole, it was an exercise in internal democracy; for the candidate's teams, it was more of a numbers war or "a massive intoxication," in the words of one spokesperson.

"I have a very good feeling, and you can tell that from our faces," said Carme Chacón, 40, who figures she can count on 416 votes against 290 for her opponent and 80 "undecided" in the run-up to February 4 and 5.

"Do not vote against anybody; simply vote what you think is best for the party," Rubalcaba, 60, told party members through Twitter. The more veteran of the two nominees said on Saturday that he has the endorsement of 380 delegates versus 290 for his rival and 28 unknowns.

The only foregone conclusion is that uncertainty will remain strong right up to voting day. In Andalusia, for instance, the regional Socialist leader José Antonio Griñán is believed to support Chacón, although he has made no public endorsements and in any case he himself does not have the full backing of his party base.

While Chacón's team claimed to have a majority of endorsements in the main Socialist federation, Rubalcaba's people said it was impossible to determine which way Andalusian delegates will vote.

Although both camps expressed satisfaction at the weekend's early results, it was particularly palpable on the side of Chacón, whose team talked about upset victories in places where it expected to lose and a predictable victory in regions representing 60 percent of the delegates: Andalusia, Catalonia, Valencia, Madrid, Castilla-La Mancha and Galicia. The former defense minister in the previous Socialist government can boast of 90-percent support in her home region of Catalonia.

In any case, the totality of delegates were not due to be chosen until Sunday night, making even these claims uncertain.

Although none of the historical leaders of the Socialist Party will be a delegate at the Seville convention, their influence is important enough that both candidates are actively seeking a public endorsement from them. So far, the majority are choosing to do so in private.

Yet it is relatively certain that Chacón has the support of former ministers José Borrell, Juan Fernando López Aguilar, Leire Pajín and Miguel Ángel Moratinos. Meanwhile, Rubalcaba is apparently preferred by former NATO secretary general Javier Solana, Txiki Benegas, Ramón Jáuregui, José Bono, Joaquín Almunia, Alfonso Guerra and Felipe González. The latter was Spain's longest-serving prime minister, between 1982 and 1996, while Guerra was his deputy.

The fact that González and his aides from that era seem to band behind Rubalcaba (who was also on the team back then) while officials from José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero's recently defeated government appear to support Chacón, has allowed the latter to claim that she represents party renewal while her opponent represents the past.

This is not the first time that both contenders have clashed in a bid to lead the Socialist Party. In the run-up to last year's general elections, Chacón initially moved to become the party's prime-ministerial candidate, but internal pressure forced her to bow out in favor of Rubalcaba, who was considered the stronger of the two with a view to the national vote. In the end, the Socialist Party sustained a historical - if widely expected - defeat to the center-right Popular Party on November 20.

That loss led a Socialist faction to demand some in-depth stocktaking to pinpoint the causes of voter disaffection and rebuild the party from the ground up, a platform that clearly favored Chacón, despite her leading role in the outgoing administration. Another faction took this to be a direct hit at Zapatero's policies and published a document taking responsibility for the government's record. This internal strife was dubbed the "battle of the manifestos."

No matter who comes out the winner of the February convention, it seems likely that these two will face off again in future when the next general elections come around, since it is by no means certain that the secretary general would automatically be the party candidate.