The need for a useful opposition

The selection process of delegates which was set to culminate over the weekend has shown that the competition between the two candidates for the post of secretary general of the Socialist Party will be a close one, and that in many provincial federations, including several of the biggest ones, an open division exists in terms of the delegates' preferences. Looking ahead to the regional conventions which will follow the national event in Seville, there is a risk of starting a process of revenge attacks and disintegration of party unity which could paralyze the main opposition group in what may well be decisive months for the new Popular Party (PP) government and the country as a whole.

Whichever candidate emerges as the winner needs to receive the support of the entire party in order to impose their authority and prevent that dynamic of dissent and disunity.

A convention does not decide (at least not solely or not always) the electoral program, but rather the political direction of the party. After the defeat in the November 20 general elections, this will need to include a thorough analysis of the causes of such a crushing loss, and political guidelines on how to act as an opposition given the economic crisis and the PP's absolute parliamentary majority. Congress should have its say on this matter, and not only in terms of the internal functioning of the party, the issue Carme Chacón insists on devoting her energy to. But there is something of a contradiction here because, in theory, both candidates should follow the same agenda - the one approved in the convention's final statement.

The PP's majorities

The question is not the defeat but rather its dimensions, and any such analysis must focus on the Zapatero administration's method of government, above and beyond the nature of the economic crisis that government was forced to deal with. It must include the outgoing leader's erratic choice of associates, his lack of political clout and the fickleness citizens perceived as a result of his changes in direction. The last two absolute majorities in Congress have been achieved by the PP; the Socialists have not produced such a result for 23 years. The question that must be addressed is why do a majority of Spaniards have more confidence in that party when it comes to exiting the crisis, despite Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's failure to come up with a single economic measure during the campaign and even having criticized Zapatero on issues where they were actually in agreement?

It is an opposition leader who is being selected, someone who must search for a balance between the need to criticize and the ability to propose alternatives and seek compromise. Zapatero, himself a better opposition leader than prime minister, talked of a useful opposition. His was a useful opposition in terms of antiterrorism policy, which was the main worry of citizens at that time. Now the big issues are unemployment and the recession, and it is in that area that the usefulness of the Socialist opposition will be measured. The temptation to play to the grandstands with populist sloganeering does not appear to be the most intelligent path toward winning back the trust of the millions of voters who preferred to either abstain or choose the PP.

Which way is left?

So which of the candidates will best embody the leadership of such an opposition? Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, the former deputy prime minister and interior minister, has put forward a return to classical social-democratic formulas: growth and redistribution, and the recovery of middle-class support. Rubalcaba wants to build a party capable of attracting the useful vote from the left as long as those on the left perceive that the Socialists have a chance of regaining power. Chacón talks of opening up to the left and insists on the need for a renewal of the party. She is waving a banner for the refounding of social democracy but does not say what political platform she has to combat the crisis from the opposition, and even less so in terms of eventually reaching power.

Both candidates were ministers under Zapatero. In her desire to break that link, the former defense minister has been critical of errors during the party's previous period and has suggested that her opponent should also be consigned to Socialism's history, along with Felipe González and Zapatero himself. But this stance does not sit well with the fact that many of the men and women who represented the Zapatero era, and who are ultimately responsible for the electoral catastrophes of the past year, have lined up behind her candidacy.