Shadows on Pakistan

Relations between the United States and Pakistan are now facing a tough test, and the future of the region will in large part depend on the outcome.

The embarrassing fact that Osama bin Laden had been residing a stone's throw away from one of Pakistan's principal military establishments for the last five years has been aggravated, after his death, by the revelation of the identity of the CIA's top man in the country. It is difficult to imagine that at least some part of the Pakistani government was unaware of the Al Qaeda leader's presence in Abbottabad. Nor is it possible to deny that the leak has come - directly or indirectly - from Islamabad's own intelligence services.

The American difficulties on what position to take regarding Pakistan do not just stem from the fact that the country is a nuclear power, and an indispensable ally in the war in Afghanistan. The Pakistani state is by no means a monolithic structure, but a shell beneath which an underground struggle is taking place, between sectors infiltrated by the jihadist ideology, and others that are trying to fight them.

President Zardari's ambiguous policy toward Al Qaeda and the Taliban has been in no way different from that of his predecessor, General Musharraf, owing to the fact that both men have acted within the same set of internal limitations.

Zardari has attempted to contain the jihadists and the Taliban to a sufficient extent so that they will not jeopardize relations with the United States and its allies, but he has also been careful not to enter into any direct confrontation with these movements, to prevent putting the stability of Pakistan in danger.

Time-bomb mechanism

It may be that, in his endeavor to maintain this highly volatile, and indeed explosive equilibrium, Zardari has gone too far, perhaps out of mere ignorance, perhaps due to concessions made. This is something that, in all probability, will eventually become known. But meanwhile there are plenty of reasons why the US administration should act with extreme caution, all the more so at a time when, with the death of Bin Laden, an essential piece in the time-bomb mechanism underlying the country has now been deactivated.

Zardari came to the presidency of Pakistan weighed down with his record of corruption scandals, and his lack of political experience. His only real asset is the fact that he is the widower of Benazir Bhutto, who was murdered in a terrorist attack just before her electoral campaign began.

No doubt the protection apparently accorded to Bin Laden by certain structures of the Pakistani state, theoretically controlled by Zardari, will now prove to have weakened his position yet further, both in the international field and the domestic one.