The gender electoral gap is widening in the United States: Men are for Trump and women for Harris

“Women are going to win this election for Kamala Harris,” says Carrie Zimmerman. This resident of Alexandria, in northern Virginia, is one of the 75,000 people who on Tuesday came to the Ellipse, the large esplanade in front of the White House, to listen to the Democratic presidential candidate in her “closing arguments” speech in the last days of the campaign. In her opinion, on November 5, there will be a wave of female votes that will tip the balance in favor of the vice president: not only Democratic women, but also others with conservative or independent ideologies who want to defend the right to abortion and democracy.

“The Republican Party wants to systematically take away the right of women to access abortion. I think women, regardless of how they feel about other issues, are not going to put up with that anymore. They want control over their bodies, not to be told by the government what they can do with their reproductive systems,” Zimmerman says vehemently.

She attended the rally with several friends, who agreed with the words of this mother. Like many other attendees, they wore t-shirts supporting the vice president and her number two, Tim Walz, on which slogans in favor of the right to terminate a pregnancy could be read. “Vote for your daughters,” read the cap of another attendee.

Just a few meters away, Melissa Scott, a resident of the U.S. capital, has a similar opinion: “I am here because I want a world where women can grow up without fear of having their reproductive rights taken away from them. Because I want a world where gay rights are still protected, where ethnic minorities feel part of this country and not marginalized by Donald Trump and his supporters. Because I believe that Kamala Harris can unite this country. We need to defeat Trump and the hatred he foments.”

Scott, Zimmerman, and their entourage represent the largest voting bloc behind Harris: women, especially those with college degrees and who live in suburban neighborhoods. A poll released last week by NBC showed the Democrat leading Trump by 30 percentage points in voting intention among women. The Republican, by contrast, has 12 percentage points more support among men. His most ardent supporters are among working-class, non-college-educated males, who are seen as despised by intellectual elites.

The gender gap has always existed in American elections. Since the 1980s, women have tended to vote more for Democrats, and men more for Republicans. But never before have the differences been so marked. In the last 25 years, that gap has doubled, especially among the youngest voters. “Among young women under 24, finding one who wants to vote for Trump is like finding a green dog,” says political strategist and voting trend analyst Frank Luntz. “Young women are dying to vote for Kamala Harris, in whom they see who they would like to be in 30 years.”

“The gender gap in 2024 is especially large,” says Katherine Tate, a professor of political science at Brown University. “Trump has alienated women voters with his hostile language and aggressiveness. The female vote is going to be decisive in this election.”

The trend is obvious at any rally for either candidate. The former president's audience tends to be dominated by men. The vice president's, though more diverse, is filled with female faces. And both candidates have put an emphasis on cultivating these respective voting blocs.

“On voting day, when many couples go to the polling station, they will not talk to each other on the way. That night, there will be many couples in which one ends up sleeping on the sofa, and not precisely because they are following the counting,” says Luntz ironically.

Trump’s hypermasculinity

Trump appeals to hypermasculinity, a trait that he has especially accentuated in recent weeks and that has allowed him to capture votes among groups that until now were more inclined to support Democrats, such as Latino men, African Americans and young people.

At his campaign events, a wrestling star rips off his shirt; he constantly calls for “fighting”; he has made allusions to the size of a golfer’s sexual organ. His few allusions to women are to offer himself as their “protector.” His vice-presidential candidate, J. D. Vance, is a particularly reviled figure among progressive women because of disparaging comments about “childless cat ladies,” or his suggestion that grandparents be used to care for small children.

Harris, meanwhile, has not wanted to emphasize the historic nature of her candidacy as the first woman of mixed Black and South Asian American heritage to run for the White House: it is a lesson learned from Hillary Clinton’s failed presidential bid, when in 2016 she promised in her campaign to “break the highest, hardest glass ceiling.” The vice president has made abortion rights her banner and tries to present herself as the candidate of dialogue, inclusion, and common sense. At some of her rallies she has appeared alongside former Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney, daughter of former vice president Dick Cheney, to send a message to conservative and moderate women, who may be interested in Trump’s political proposals but who are repelled by the candidate’s aggressive personality.

Last week, her campaign organized a large event in Houston, Texas, to highlight the draconian law that has banned abortion in that state for three years, and its negative consequences for women’s health. At the event, Harris was accompanied by stars such as Jessica Alba and Beyoncé, who appealed “as a mother” for people to vote for the Democratic candidate.

Despite all this, a section of the female electorate does lean toward Trump. “It is very important to know that the values of the Republican Party are the values of Latinos,” says Teresa, of Venezuelan origin, but who has lived in the city of Reading, Pennsylvania, for more than two decades.

The support of women is good news for Harris. They tend to go to the polls more regularly than men and represent 53% of the electorate. According to an analysis by Politico this week, in the early voting in the swing states, there is a gender gap of 10 percentage points in favor of women, who account for 55% of the ballots cast compared to 45% for men.

Despite everything, women’s votes will not be enough to give Harris victory. Nor will men’s votes alone be enough to propel Trump to the White House. Thus, two of the most popular Democrats among the party’s rank and file, Barack and Michelle Obama, have launched an appeal to men to vote for Harris. “If we don’t get this election right, your wife, your daughter, your mother, we as women will become collateral damage to your rage,” said the former first lady, who continued: “So are you as men prepared to look into the eyes of the women and children you love and tell them you supported this assault on our safety?”

Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition