Frank Luntz: ‘Trump is saying stuff that is absolutely extreme and it’s not hurting him at all’

Pollster and election strategist Frank Luntz doesn’t know who will win the closely contested U.S. presidential election on November 5, but he does know why’s it so close. “Two-thirds of Americans don’t think their country cares about them. One-third don’t feel interested in the future of their country. That’s what’s causing this anger, this disappointment and this polarization that is currently wrecking our democratic process. It’s a disastrous situation — and it’s unsustainable,” he warns.

Luntz’s insights carry weight for a reason. He is one of the most celebrated and respected electoral strategists in the United States. His four-decade career in political communication, during which he pioneered the use of instant response focus groups, is reflected in the historical and electoral memorabilia that adorns his palatial apartment in Washington, where he speaks with a small group of foreign journalists. The room showcases paintings depicting the arrival of man on the moon, a mannequin in a police uniform, handkerchiefs, baseball cards, commemorative card games, thank-you cards, and pillows embroidered with the bald eagle.

In the final stretch to the elections, Luntz warns that the situation is alarming: “We don’t trust our electoral system, our institutions, or our leaders. As a result, “our entire process, everything we’ve known about politics, is not true anymore.” A candidate like Republican Donald Trump, who lies systematically, is not only unscathed by his behavior but could also emerge victorious on November 5. Luntz cites a poll indicating that 25% of Republicans believe Trump “should do everything he can to assume his rightful position as president.”

“That’s why I’m so concerned about where we go in the future. It’s too high a percentage of Americans who, even now, will say, ‘It’s our presidency. We have the right to take it, and Trump should try to do so,’” he notes.

Following the September debate in Philadelphia between Harris and Trump, Luntz had initially predicted that the Democrat would win the election. “Trump’s performance was so bad that I thought there was no way he could win.” However, he no longer feels confident making predictions. “Seventy-five million people watched that debate. He was pathetic, and he could still win,” Luntz says incredulously. “In all the key swing states, they’re less than two points apart. The margin of error is four points. You can’t call it. Anyone who tries is an idiot because they really don’t know.”

Question. If there is no trust in the system, and what we thought we knew is no longer true, does anything still matters in the electoral process?

Answer. The perception of truth matters, but truth itself does not. It’s a horrible thing to say, but Donald Trump doesn’t tell the truth and it doesn’t seem to affect his voting intention. It doesn’t matter if what he says is accurate or not. If I were to believe the data I receive at face value, I would point to him as the winner, because he has been rising in the polls in recent days and the numbers are moving in his favor. His supporters no longer lie about their voting intention [which may have happened in the 2016 or 2020 elections]. His voters want to proclaim, ‘I’m a Trump voter,’ they want to yell it out, they’re proud of it. Everywhere, the posters supporting Kamala are of a modest size. Trump’s are as big as an apartment.

But there are other things I don't know about. For example, the youth vote. Traditionally, young people don't participate, they don't get involved in politics. But this time, young women are dying to vote, and to vote for Harris.

Q. Has Harris made any mistakes?

A. For the first 30, 45 days of her campaign, you could say she was the best candidate possible. The best in modern American history, better even than Barack Obama. She took the country by storm. And in the last 20 days, maybe 30, she’s been abysmal. They asked her what she would do differently from Joe Biden and she couldn’t say anything. You have to give voters a second act, a reason to keep listening. And in her case, Harris not telling them what they want to know or need to know. As a candidate, Trump has a responsibility to do a second debate. She has a responsibility to answer specific questions about what she would do, but she doesn’t, and voters are pissed. What I don’t understand is he’s saying stuff that is absolutely extreme and it’s not hurting him at all.

Q. Why has that happened?

A. Now more people now believe that Trump’s presidency was good, more so than Joe Biden’s presidency. We’ve looked back at the job he did and we no longer think he was not up to par. A majority of Americans thinks he did a decent job. And Harris’ biggest mistake is having certain assumptions about people’s perceptions that aren’t necessarily correct. I don’t think we understand how frustrated so many Americans are with how conditions are. So much so that they’re willing to vote for a convicted felon because Harris reminds them too much of the status quo. That’s her problem. Harris had the chance to be different. She was different. She changed everything. But 45 days later, she’s become the candidate of the status quo.

Q. Should she curse more, like Trump?

A. She should be differentiating herself more [from Biden].

Q. What is the outlook in the seven swing states that hold the key to reaching the 270 electoral votes a candidate needs to win the election?

A. For Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, the key will be the union vote, which is traditionally Democratic. For the first time, rank-and-file members are telling their bosses that they are not going to listen to them, that they are going to vote for Trump. The union members love Trump because they love his language, they appreciate Trump being in their face. They want someone who says what they mean, who means what they say, and they believe that person is Trump. It has nothing to do with the fact that Harris is a woman. The proof of this is that the rank-and-file union membership were turning to Trump when Biden was the nominee. So you can’t say that it’s a gender issue. There are unions that are still mostly Democratic, the government unions, the teachers’ unions. But the others, no. People who work with their hands love Trump.

In Georgia and North Carolina, it’s all about young African American men. Until now, among young people, maybe 3% of women voted Republican, 10% of men. That gave the Republicans 6% or 7% of the African American vote. But now it’s not 10%, it’s 25%.

In Nevada and Arizona, you have to look at the Latino vote. It is more up for grabs than ever, for two reasons. They’ve voted Democrat all their lives but never got anything for it. And they’re moving toward a free market ideology, distancing themselves from the Black population as an electoral group. That’s changing their entire vote. And even though Trump sounds so horrific, with his comments about immigrants, they hear him and believe that he’s not talking about them. Those who are here say: “I am here legally, shut the door, the people who are coming in are bad and making me look bad.”

What is different about the Latino vote compared to the young African American vote is that the latter vote for Trump, not for the Republican Party. The Latinos vote more for the Republican Party, and Trump just happens to be the leader. If he were a less bellicose, less controversial candidate, the Latino vote would lean even more in favor of the GOP. I think Trump is a factor that limits the swing of the Latino electorate, but he did get their attention, and they are forgiving him for some of the things he says.

Q. Two weeks before the elections, are there still undecided voters who could turn the tables at the last minute?

A. There are no real undecided voters left. There are people who are leaning towards one or the other, but who haven’t made up their minds yet. Of these, those who are leaning towards Trump, they can ask themselves: Is he going to seek revenge? Is he going to be about the past? Is he crazy? Is he too old? He is someone they don’t like, they agree with him on inflation and think he will be better at controlling the border, but they don’t like his personality.

In the case of those who are leaning towards Harris, they worry she’s flip-flopped on too much. Can I trust her? Is she telling me what she really thinks, or just what she thinks I want to hear? The doubts about her are about her veracity. Then there are also people who don’t like either of them, and they can’t figure out who’s better. The undecideds will likely not vote for either. So in the end, the result will be a matter of mobilization, of who goes out to vote.

Q. In this final stretch of the campaign, Harris has chosen to emphasize the support she receives from moderate Republicans, the “never Trumps.”

A. Every vote she gets from them is a vote she takes away from Trump, a vote that would have gone to the Republicans, so it makes sense for her to try to boost those numbers among Republicans. But the people who are “never Trump” are not necessarily her voters. There are also people who will spoil their ballot. Or vote “none of the above.”

Q. The world’s richest man, Elon Musk, is going all out to help Trump. What impact might that have?

A. I don’t think Musk is going to have a meaningful impact. The only one who might have a meaningful impact is the singer Taylor Swift. Asked who has more influence on their vote, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris or Taylor Swift, 26% of Americans chose Swift. No one over 65, but among young people, 35% said that. If you’re under 34, what Swift says impacts you. Why Trump picked a fight with her is what I don’t understand about him. There’s something in his psyche that makes him a horrible candidate. He says things that are inappropriate, that offend people and alienate them. He’s doing it deliberately. I wonder if he really wants to be president, because no sane person would say the stuff his saying in the way he’s saying it.

Q. What will happen after November 5?

A. I expect that we will have no answer on November 5, 6, or 7. And I think people are going to get angrier and angrier, and more and more frustrated, and that the Trump campaign is going to accuse the election of being stolen.

Q. Is it possible that, after the elections, there will be an opportunity to for the country to restore unity?

A. If Harris wins, the same thing will happen as when Barack Obama won in 2008: there will be a honeymoon period. But let’s see what she does during that period. She has alluded to reparations: financial payments for the costs of slavery. Seventy percent of the Black population support it and 75% of white Americans oppose it. If she pushes it, this country blows apart.

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