Bobby Pulido pulls ahead in bid to win back border voters who supported Trump

This report was co-published with Puente News Collaborative, a binational nonprofit newsroom dedicated to providing accurate, high-quality reporting on the border between Mexico and the United States.

Less than two weeks before a pivotal midterm election, Bobby Pulido, the Tejano singer-turned-congressional candidate, is poised to flip a congressional seat in this heavily Latino district where President Trump romped two years ago, according to one of the last polls of South Texas voters.

The poll of the 15th district, commissioned by the San Antonio Express-News, the El País news organization, and the Puente News Collaborative, favored Pulido 51% to 44% over his Republican opponent, Monica De La Cruz.

Among Latino likely voters, the gap widens, with about 57% for the Democrat Pulido, compared to 40% for De La Cruz. The Latino population accounts for about 82% of TX-15 residents and 65% of the district’s likely voters. Pulido is also pulling ahead among Independents 55% to 33%.

The survey, conducted in Spanish and English, was carried out Oct. 13-16 by Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center. The survey has a margin of error of 3.8%, with 5% of voters still undecided. The respected Cook Political Report underscores the poll, saying the 15th district, along with District 34 anchored in the Rio Grande Valley, is a toss-up.

Trump’s bursting bubble

“If the economy was booming, then Republicans would be doing much better in South Texas,” said Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University and co-director of the poll. “But the economy is not booming.”

Moreover, Jones added, the 15th’s new district map, part of the president’s gerrymandering plan to add more Republican representatives in Washington, D.C., appears to have backfired. Redrawn in the summer of 2025 by the Texas legislature, the 15th district now cuts north from a reduced slice of the borderlands to the growing and conservative counties east of San Antonio.

“The false assumption that Republicans made was that Latinos would vote the same way they voted for Trump in 2024, but that was very unrealistic. Latinos remain a swing vote,” Jones said. “Trump is underwater in the valley, by 10 points; his bubble is bursting.”

Fifty-two percent of likely voters in District 15 report being worse off economically than a year ago, while 21% report being better off and 27% report being about the same. And 57% of likely voters in District 15 disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy. Just 37% approved.

On the president’s immigration policy, 51% of likely voters in the 15th district disapprove of Trump’s handling of immigration and border security, while 47% approve.

Separately, in the marquee gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races, and among TX-15 likely voters, Governor Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49% to 46% and Democrat James Talarico is favored over Republican Ken Paxton 48% to 46%, according to a poll by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs.

ICE raids affect the economy

Should he win, Pulido will surf a wave-like nationwide retreat of the Latino vote from Trump and the Republican Party, analysts say. That swing has helped upend Republican plans and underscored the growing importance of the fickle (or persuadable) Mexican-American voter.

Accordingly, the two-time Latin Grammy Award winner Pulido (call him Bobby, everyone does) has been running less as a Democrat and more on his personal popularity and a rejection of Trump, who won the district by 18% in 2024.

“I’m not going to Washington to serve a political party. I’m going to serve you,” Pulido told some 9,000 rambunctious fans at an October 17 concert in his hometown Edinburg — the last one, he has said, of his 31- year music career. “I made music for me. I’m running for Congress for you.”

Much of Trump’s appeal may have been getting a grip on what many here and nationwide see as a broken border. This year, with undocumented border crossing reduced to a trickle, voter focus appears to have shifted from border security to the jingle in the pocket, according to analysts and the El Pais- Express News-Puente News poll.

The fear factor — a border in crisis, chaos and conflict — isn’t dominating the election cycle. Instead, ICE raids are having a trickle-down effect on the overall economy, Jones said, pointing to the construction industry.

“A lot of industries that depend on undocumented immigrants have simply stopped functioning,” Jones said. “Houses aren’t being built, and therefore construction supplies aren’t being purchased.”

Music for me; Congress for you

Pulido is hugely popular across South Texas. Nearly everyone seems to have a personal connection with the singer, or claims to. Accordingly, he has anchored his campaign by singing at dozens of quinceañeras, coming-out parties for 15-year-old girls that are cultural touchstones.

Though De La Cruz is also from the Valley, her support is stronger in counties farther upstate and ranchlands away from the border. Her campaign did not respond to interview requests.

Yard signs touting either campaign seem sparse this season. But Pulido seems to be besting De La Cruz, especially in smaller cities and towns like Alice.

Looking much like a big piece of a jigsaw puzzle, the 15th District runs north from the border through sparsely populated, brush-choked oil and cattle country. The Stars and Stripes dominate among the few flags flying on ranch gates and urban streets. Deeply proud of their Mexican heritage, many district residents also remain resolutely American.

Lourdes Trevino-Cantu, 73, a retired high school librarian and lifelong resident of Falfurrias, now runs the town’s small but intriguing Heritage Museum, which focuses heavily on ranch life, the Texas Rangers and Mexican-American culture.

With the decline of ranching and the local oil industry, many Anglos who once held an outsized sway here have moved away, Trevino-Cantu said. The Mexican-Americans who remain feel their political allegiances pulled left and right.

“If I wasn’t personally connected to Bobby Pulido I would probably be confused,” she said. “Those who voted for Trump last time are going to vote for Trump again because they don’t want to admit they were wrong. They believed in his promises that turned out to be lies.”

Promises turn to lies

Ads on ubiquitous televisions in restaurants in Falfurrias, George West and other district towns carry a drumbeat of warning that Pulido, Talarico and other Democrats are “radical” and “dangerous” Texans. Another advises the need to vote in order to get Trump’s agenda “across the line.”

Valley businessman Abad Morales, 36, has been there and is done with fear-mongering, he said. Though he supports tightening enforcement on the border, Morales has been outraged by detention and deportation by Immigration and Customs Enforcement of otherwise law-abiding undocumented migrants.

“I’m not going to lie, I did vote for Trump,” said Morales, now running as a Democrat for city commission in Weslaco, a borderlands city in the 15th district. “I am not against controlling the border, but what they are doing with deporting people is different.”

In an interview, Pulido said he supports tougher border enforcement. But he is also calling for immigration reform to help both border families and local farms, builders and other businesses that depend on migrant labor.

“Catch and release,” the Biden era policy that allowed entry to hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers “was a terrible policy, terrible,” Pulido has said. Apart from attracting millions of poor migrants to the border, the policy saturated immigration courts and delayed or derailed residency claims by local residents or their relatives.

Dealignment, not realignment

Pulido’s possible bid to retake a congressional seat stands among the most watched races and indicates another shift in the Latino vote. Long a bastion of the Democratic Party, the Mexican-American vote shifted dramatically in favor of Trump in the past decade. Latino voters are becoming even more crucial as they are looking for a political home.

“What appears to be happening is more of a de-alignment than a re-alignment,” said Mike Madrid, a Republican political analyst and expert of the Latino vote. He co-founded the Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump organization.

“It’s really more rejection of both parties,” Madrid said.

African-American voters are largely sticking with the Democrats, Madrid said. The Republican base — working-class, white and non-college voters — are staying with the party, despite economic pain, the Iran war and other worries, he said.

“The only group that’s moving are Latinos and that swing you’re going to see a full display in the San Joaquin Valley, Allentown (Pennsylvania) and Rio Grande Valley,” Madrid said. “In many ways the valleys in Pennsylvania, California and Texas represent the future of this country.”

The last party

Inside Bert Ogden Arena, Tejano music fan Martha Garcia, 54, anxiously waited for Pulido’s “La Ultima Desvelada” (the last party) concert to begin. She had mixed emotions.

A lifelong fan of Pulido, she felt “sad that he won’t sing again,” but “I don’t know him as a politician. I don’t know how or what he will do.”

She remains unsure if she’ll vote this time around, she said, adding: “The Democrats ignored us, but the Republicans are killing us” with high prices, tariffs and those “ugly ICE raids.”

“I hope if Bobby wins he can turn the page,” she said.

Pulido’s chances may rest on getting people like Garcia to actually cast a ballot. About half of registered voters didn’t bother in 2024. While he’s popular in the borderlands, upstate turnout can overwhelm his support.

“We’re almost at the finish line,” Pulido said recently at an event supporting other local candidates. “But if you don’t vote, we can lose this.”

Corchado is Puente News’ executive editor and correspondent. Althaus is an independent journalist and longtime Texas and Mexico reporter.

This article is in collaboration with the San Antonio Express News, El Pais and Puente News Collaborative, a bilingual nonprofit newsroom and funder dedicated to high-quality, fact-based news and information from the U.S.-Mexico border.