Republican edge in a key California district challenges Democrats’ path to a House majority
Two GOP members lead in the District 40 race, seen as key to the Democratic Party’s strategy to win control of the House of Representatives
California Democrats’ bid to retake control of Congress through redistricting efforts to include more of their voters in heavily Republican areas is running into its first barrier in a race in a district east of Los Angeles. Preliminary counts put two Republican candidates in the top two spots, which would set up a contest between them for the seat in the November midterm elections. In other races that Democrats consider key, their candidates have advanced to a November runoff.
The strategy, pushed by California Governor Gavin Newsom in response to the redistricting moves championed by President Donald Trump in Texas and other states ahead of the midterms, hit a complication in the race for District 40, which covers parts of Orange and Riverside counties in the southern part of the state. Republican Rep. Ken Calvert (with 36% of the vote, according to preliminary results) and his fellow Republican Young Kim (with 22% of the vote) lead the ballot. AP projections gave Calvert a virtual lock on advancing to the next round. Trailing were the two Democratic candidates, Esther Kim-Varen (16%) and Lisa Ramírez (8%).
If the remaining ballots preserve this picture, the Democratic candidates would be excluded from the contest. Under the jungle primary system, or open primaries, all candidates run on a single ballot and the top two vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.
“Tonight’s results (Tuesday) make clear that voters want an effective, consistent conservative, someone who has stood with President Trump from day one,” Calvert said in a statement quoted by the Press-Enterprise. He spent more than $7 million on his campaign.
The Democrats’ last hope is that mail ballots sent in the days before the election will favor Kim-Varen, who is in third place. “There are tens of thousands of ballots that still have to be counted,” Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party, told the same outlet. “But if Democrats are shut out of California’s 40th District, it will be voters who are forced to endure being represented by another corrupt Republican politician beholden to Donald Trump.”
Democrats hope to pick up at least five California seats in their bid to win control of the House of Representatives. With the preliminary results from District 40, they may only pick up four more. Still, it will take until November to know for sure how effective the Democrats’ plan ultimately proves to be.
The district at the center of the dispute
A conflict that began when the Democratic establishment backed a state lawmaker of Indian descent in District 22, where the electorate is majority Hispanic, remained unresolved after the primaries. On Wednesday night, Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains was in third place with 25.7% of the vote, behind Randy Villegas, a university professor and son of Mexican immigrants, who had 29.8%. AP projected that the district’s current representative, Republican David Valadao, would advance to a runoff after receiving 44.5% of the vote.
Differences between Bains and Villegas intensified after the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) broke its decision not to intervene in California contests and included Bains in its Red to Blue initiative, aimed at winning seats held by Republicans.
District 22 covers part of California’s Central Valley, where about 70% of residents are Latino. It is an important agricultural area that has swung both ways in recent presidential elections: in 2020 it voted for Joe Biden and four years later for Donald Trump. For that reason, it is considered one of the most competitive House races for Democrats this year.
Views diverge between those who back a progressive Hispanic Democratic candidate to capitalize on the district’s large Latino vote and those who prefer a lawmaker with a track record in public service who is more moderate. The Democratic committee’s decision has been rejected by Villegas and his supporters, who see it as a snub to Latino voters in California.
Other districts in flux
In San Diego, in the race for the District 48 seat being vacated by Republican Darrell Issa, his fellow Republican Jim Desmond, a county supervisor, and Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego city councilmember and Democrat, advanced to a runoff, AP projects.
In a Sacramento suburb, the contest for District 3 will be between Democrat Ami Bera and Republican Robb Tucker, according to AP. Incumbent Kevin Kiley was left off the general-election ballot. He was a Republican when he won the previous election but ran this time as an independent.
Meanwhile, the race for District 1, which covers much of rural northern California including communities around Redding, Chico and Yuba City, will also be decided in November between candidates from both parties — Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire, AP projects.
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