Allred out, Crockett in: The battle for Texas Senate seat is upended by a surprise withdrawal and candidacy

There are 11 months still to go before the midterm elections, but in Texas the campaign is already heating up. Monday was the deadline to file candidacies, and the battle among Democrats to represent the state in the U.S. Senate was thrown into turmoil on a day full of surprises. In the morning, Colin Allred — the best-known Democratic hopeful, who lost last year in his attempt to unseat Ted Cruz — dropped out of the race. And in the afternoon, Dallas congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, well-known for her rapid-fire viral clashes with Republicans in recent years, announced that she would run. At the last possible moment, the outlook for one of the few seemingly competitive Senate seats shifted in a way as unexpected as it was unpredictable.

To start, candidates from both parties will have to compete in primaries scheduled for March 3 to determine who will advance to the November 2026 midterms. On the Democratic side, the popular and increasingly nationally recognized state representative James Talarico will face Crockett. Both represent a new generation of Democrats and market themselves as heterodox politicians adept at modern, social-media-driven communication. But while Talarico attempts to build ideological bridges toward the center-right, Crockett takes a more combative approach and instead focuses on rallying grassroots supporters.

Republicans, meanwhile, are heading toward a primary campaign that is shaping up to be long and brutal. Two names stand out in particular. Veteran Senator John Cornyn, who is seeking to secure a fourth term — Senate terms last six years in the United States — and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, an ultraconservative who faced an impeachment effort over corruption but has come out of it politically stronger. If that head-to-head weren’t enough, a third name, Representative Wesley Hunt, is also polling well. The current landscape, in which none appears to be near the 50% needed to lock down the nomination outright, points to a possible runoff in May.

This situation — where same-party candidates are likely to spend millions of dollars attacking each other, effectively handing the Republicans ready-made lines of attack — is precisely what Democrats have been trying to avoid for months. And it’s the reason Allred gave for stepping out of the race. “In the past few days, I’ve come to believe that a bruising Senate Democratic primary and runoff would prevent the Democratic Party from going into this critical election unified against the danger posed to our communities and our Constitution by Donald Trump and one of his Republican bootlickers Paxton, Cornyn, or Hunt,” he said in a statement.

Allred also announced that instead of seeking a Senate seat, he will try to return to the U.S. House of Representatives, where he represented Texas’s 32nd District —located in his native Dallas— from 2019 to 2025. This time, however, after the state’s controversial redistricting process, Allred will aim for District 33, currently represented by Jasmine Crockett and now the only competitive Democratic seat in the area.

Crockett’s move had been rumored in recent weeks. According to several outlets, the congresswoman had phoned her would-be primary rivals, Allred and Talarico, to inform them of her desire to run for the Senate, citing an internal poll showing her beating both of them. Her proposal was that they give up their Senate ambitions and instead run for one of the statewide offices also on the ballot, such as governor or attorney general — though a Democratic win in those races is far less likely. The proposal didn’t stick, as the more realistic chance of becoming the first Democratic senator from Texas in over three decades won out.

Crockett, 44, has gained fame thanks to her viral confrontations with Republicans and her frequent appearances in the Democratic media ecosystem. That prominence has earned her legions of social-media followers and donors, making her one of the party’s most prolific fundraisers. She has also become one of U.S. President Donald Trump’s preferred targets, mentioned by him constantly.

For all these reasons, despite joining the race on the last possible day after months of slow buildup, Crockett poses a clear threat to Talarico. The 36-year-old former teacher and current Presbyterian seminarian has served as a state representative since 2018 and has earned a reputation as a defender of public education and a relentless — yet notably calm — opponent of Trumpism and the far right, often grounding his messaging in his Christian values. His ability to cultivate and mobilize a large online following has drawn national attention and earned him comparisons to New York’s mayor-elect, Zohran Mamdani. His rise has even landed him on the list of potential presidential candidates for 2028.

Between Talarico and Crockett, Republicans in Texas and Washington have not hidden their preference for Crockett, convinced she would be a weaker general-election candidate because of her more polarizing profile. Among Democrats, there’s a similar view regarding Attorney General Paxton. And many in the party believe the time may finally have come for a Democratic Texas senator, given that Trump’s popularity — even in Texas, a far more diverse state than is often assumed— is starting to wane. The closest Democrats have come was in 2018, during Trump’s first term, when El Paso congressman Beto O’Rourke nearly unseated Ted Cruz.

While the battle for the House of Representatives — which is entirely up for reelection — will dominate the parties’ midterm agendas, the race for Texas’s Senate seat will draw some national attention as well. Not only because of the high profile of the candidates on both sides, but also because even though Democrats face an uphill climb in regaining control of the Senate in 2026, they need to start racking up early wins if they hope to do so in 2028. The moves made in Texas on Monday could end up having far-reaching consequences.

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