Economic downturn and immigration policy erode Latino voter support for Trump

The first 100 days of the Trump administration have eroded the support the Republican received from Latino voters in the November 5 elections, which was decisive in his return to the White House.

Trump obtained 46% of the Hispanic vote in the presidential election, 14 points more than in 2020, according to the Edison Research survey. Now, 59% disapprove of his performance, compared to only 37% who approve, according to the recently published survey by the Latino organizations UnidosUS, Voces Unidas, the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), and Climate Power en Acción in collaboration with BSP Research and Sean Company Research, for which 1,002 Latino voters were interviewed.

The two main factors that determined the votes of millions of Latinos — the economy and immigration — are responsible for the decline in support. Only 16% support the deportation of all undocumented immigrants, one of the Trump administration’s main objectives, and more than half (54%) believe the state of the economy has worsened.

The avalanche of anti-immigration measures approved by the administration is impacting the Latino community, which is the hardest-hit by policies that are eliminating the legal residency status of four million people, withdrawing benefits from undocumented immigrants, and is the target of the campaign to achieve the largest deportation of migrants in the country’s history.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids in predominantly Latino neighborhoods, along with arrests and deportations carried out without trial, have spread fear throughout the community. According to the survey, 43% of respondents believe Latinos, including those who are U.S. citizens, are afraid of being detained.

“Latino voters are alarmed and outraged by the threats to our democracy. A large majority believe the rule of law is failing and the Constitution is being violated. This aligns with what we hear at Unidos from our communities across the country and reflects the growing concern about extreme government actions that violate due process for both citizens and non-citizens,” said Janet Murguía, president of UnidosUS.

The survey also shows how many Latinos exercise a change in daily routine to avoid encounters with ICE agents. Thirty-five percent of respondents believe that Latino businesses have lost workers due to fear of being detained, and 32% say children are skipping school to avoid encounters with immigration enforcement. Schools, like places of worship and hospitals, were considered "sensitive locations" where immigration agents could not make arrests until Trump eliminated that protection.

Regarding mass deportations, only 22% support the expulsion of all undocumented migrants, compared to 78% who prefer targeting only migrants with criminal records.

Part of the Latino support for Trump was due to the Republican’s campaign to strengthen border security. Many voters, including Latinos, supported restricting the entry of undocumented migrants and tightening immigration policy. The reality, with deportations of people with no criminal record and without a trial, has exceeded expectations.

“What we thought was about securing the border now translates into Kilmar Abrego García [a Salvadoran mistakenly deported and whom the government has refused to bring back to the United States]. These are stories that resonate in our communities and show us a new face of cruelty and lack of due process,” says Ray Serrano, Director of Policy and Research at LULAC.

Although immigration policy has dominated the majority of executive orders in the administration’s first 100 days and is considered the most important factor by 21% of respondents, the majority cites the economy as their greatest concern.

The four issues they consider most important, according to the survey, are the cost of living and inflation (52%), employment and the economy (40%), access to housing (28%), and healthcare (21%).

Rising prices, the policy of imposing tariffs on imports, and the falling dollar have disappointed Latino voters, who had hoped they would have a better financial situation under the Republican. Fifty percent also expect the outlook to be bleak.

“While there was some flirtation with the possibility of leaning toward Trump, toward the Republican side, the trust factor is now fading,” Serrano adds.

Other recent polls have also reflected waning support among Latinos. Trump’s approval rating in the community fell three percentage points to 34%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted this month, due to concerns about the economy and the president’s hard line on immigration. According to the poll, Trump’s disapproval rating among Hispanic voters reached 61%, an increase of seven percentage points, compared to a five-point increase among Americans overall, to 53%.

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