What Trump has broken in 100 days, explained in 10 charts

Donald Trump’s return to the White House has disrupted the global geopolitical and financial landscape. His brutal and chaotic style of governance has turned the United States into the primary factor destabilizing markets and international diplomatic relations. The unpredictability has negatively affected his approval rating among the population. The following charts illustrate the turbulence caused by his erratic decisions during his first 100 days in office, which he will mark on Wednesday.

1. He triggered the collapse of global stock markets with ‘Liberation Day’

The global economy entered a state of peak tension the moment Trump launched an erratic trade war, imposing indiscriminate tariffs on both allies and adversaries, only to later suspend them.

The S&P 500, which tracks the largest companies in the United States, has lost 9% since the Republican returned to the White House on January 20. On April 8, when the tariffs took effect, the index fell 18%.

After the initial shock, gains have been widespread: for instance, Spain’s Ibex 35 has risen by 11% since the change of presidency in Washington.

Under pressure from the markets, Trump agreed to temporarily pause tariffs — except those targeting China — for 90 days. Volatility has settled into the markets, driven by comments or posts on social media. A protectionist remark from Trump or his team? The stock markets drop. A more conciliatory one? They rebound.

2. For the stock market, the start of his presidency was the worst in decades

How does the start of Trump’s presidency compare with previous presidencies? The chart shows the performance of the S&P 500 during the first 94 days of each term. The 9.3% drop in Trump’s second term is the worst start of at least the last 14 presidencies.

Trump’s return to office even leaves Gerald Ford’s rise to power in 1974, after Richard Nixon’s resignation due to Watergate (-8.9%), in a positive light. It is also a worse beginning than the start of the George W. Bush presidency, which began during the dot-com crisis (-8.5%).

3. and 4. The risk of recession in the US increases

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which uses a model providing real-time estimates of economic growth, is already reflecting the grim news of a trade war. It estimates that U.S. GDP contracted at an annualized quarterly rate of 2.8% in the first quarter. In early April, the estimate plummeted to 3.7%, the worst figure since the Covid-19 pandemic. In recent weeks, the forecast has been moderated to a 2.2% decline.

According to the prediction community Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. entering a recession before the end of the year is 55%. This isn’t a very high percentage, meaning that many observers believe there won’t be a recession. Those who rule it out point to figures like a robust labor market, where the unemployment rate is just 4.2%.

When the world’s largest economy hits the brakes, it drags down the accounts of other countries. This week, the International Monetary Fund lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecast by 0.9 points to 1.8%, and said the odds of a recession had risen to 37%. For the global economy as a whole, the growth forecast for 2025 has dropped from 3.3% to 2.8%.

5. It’s not just macroeconomics: Americans believe the economy is getting worse

U.S. public opinion is not immune to the unpredictability of those in charge. Trump’s first months in office have left little room for economic optimism. Some 52% of Americans believe the economy is worsening. This figure has steadily increased since Trump’s inauguration, when it was below 40%.

6. He is less popular than Biden at the same point of his term

Trump’s first quarter in office is also notable for the dramatic drop in his approval rating: it has fallen 18 points since January 20. It’s normal for this figure to drop between a president’s inauguration and the end of their term: Biden’s approval rating was 36 points lower than when he arrived, and Trump’s had dropped 17 points by the end of his first term.

In just 92 days, Trump’s approval rating has fallen nearly 24 points below Biden’s rating at the same point in his term. He has even worsened his own record: in 2017, he was five points higher.

7. 8. and 9. He has alienated allies like Canada and Europe

Trump’s return has soured the relationship between the U.S. and its traditional allies. The rift is particularly evident in Canada, where 64% of citizens believed in March that the U.S. is an enemy (14 points higher than in February). This is the result of three months of growing distrust fueled by tariffs, pressure on immigration policies, and disputes over Arctic sovereignty, among other issues.

The difference from just a few years ago is striking. In the summer of 2020, when asked a similar question, nearly 70% of Canadians considered the U.S. to be a friendly country.

The multiple flashpoints in Europe — commitment to NATO, the situation in Ukraine, tariffs, and other trade tensions — are also reflected in opinion polls about the U.S. The decline in the country’s image is particularly pronounced in Denmark, partly due to Trump’s comments about his goal to annex Greenland. Spain, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and, to a lesser extent, Italy, also now have a worse perception of the U.S.

In the United Kingdom, tariffs — in this case, 10% — have undermined what both parties had referred to as a “special relationship.” The increasingly uncertain economic outlook in London, with a 0.5-point growth downgrade by the IMF, is accompanied by an 18-point drop in Trump’s popularity among the British, the largest decline in the past five years.

10. He has weakened the NATO alliance

Trump’s top officials’ attacks on Europeans — “pathetic” and “freeloaders,” as U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described them in a chat — have fractured the Western geopolitical bloc, which is unified around NATO.

Trump’s push to revive U.S. relations with Russia, recognizing its status as a major power, has caused the European nations — seen as allies just a few months ago — to distance themselves from the U.S. The percentage of Britons willing to use “military force” to assist the U.S. against a hypothetical Russian attack has fallen from 58% to 42%. Across all the countries surveyed, the willingness to assist the U.S. has declined compared to last year’s responses.

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