Greenland, the hotspot in the global race for Arctic control

On the hills surrounding the port of Nuuk, dozens of small, colorful wooden houses with snow-covered roofs dominate the landscape. Among them, a tiny red house is home to the northernmost U.S. diplomatic mission. Opened in 2020, at the end of Donald Trump’s first term in the White House, the U.S. consulate in Greenland’s capital reflects Washington’s renewed interest in the vast Arctic island — the largest in the world — with just 57,000 inhabitants and significant geostrategic value. The U.S. already has a military base in Greenland but aims to increase its presence to counter the influence of Russia and China in the region.

In recent months, Greenland — one of the most remote and unspoiled places on the planet — has drawn global attention. Trump’s repeated threats to annex this autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark have fueled unease in both Copenhagen and among Greenlanders. Trump, who first floated the idea of purchasing the island from Denmark, a NATO ally, in 2019, continues to insist that “ownership and control” of Greenland is “an absolute necessity” for Washington.

As Greenland heats up — literally and figuratively — Denmark is scrambling to contain the situation. The government is rallying support from European allies and has announced a multi-million-dollar investment to strengthen Greenland’s long-neglected defense capabilities in the coming years.

The U.S. interest in incorporating Greenland — a territory roughly the size of France, Spain, Italy, Germany, and the United Kingdom combined — is nothing new. Washington previously attempted to acquire the island in 1867, 1910, 1946, and 1955, all without success. In recent years, the Arctic has become a key battleground for the strategic interests of Russia, China, and the U.S., and Trump now sees Greenland as the jewel in the crown.

The United States has maintained a presence in Greenland — which is geographically part of North America — for more than eight decades. During World War II, with Denmark under Nazi occupation, the U.S. military temporarily took control of the island. A 1951 agreement between the U.S. and Denmark — later joined by Greenland’s Home Rule Government in 2004 — grants Washington the right to build military bases on the Danish territory, provided that Copenhagen and Nuuk are informed.

Since 1943, the U.S. Armed Forces have operated the Pituffik military base in northwest Greenland, now under the command of the U.S. Space Force, a military branch created by Trump in 2019. Ulrik Pram Gad, a researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, explains that this base — which houses an early warning system for detecting and tracking intercontinental missiles — is of crucial strategic importance to Washington. “If Russia or China were to attack the U.S. with nuclear ballistic missiles, they would cross the North Pole, and Pituffik’s radars would be essential in preventing impact,” he says.

Once a potential flashpoint during the Cold War — with a dense military infrastructure and the shortest route between the U.S. and the Soviet Union — the Arctic later transformed into a zone of international cooperation following the collapse of the communist bloc. That progress, however, was upended in 2022 when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered years of collaboration. Shortly after Russian tanks crossed the border, the seven Western members of the Arctic Council — the U.S., Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and Finland — suspended the organization’s activities indefinitely. Moscow had created the council in 1996, back when Russia was still part of the G-8.

In addition to the escalating geopolitical tensions, climate change is also rapidly reshaping the Arctic. Melting ice is opening up new economic opportunities, from emerging maritime routes to the potential exploitation of previously inaccessible mineral and hydrocarbon resources.

Russia and China’s growing interest in the Arctic is clear. Moscow has revived more than a dozen military bases along its northern coast that were abandoned after the Cold War, and also constructed several new ones. Meanwhile, China declared itself a “near-Arctic state” in a 2018 white paper, and last October, its Coast Guard entered Arctic waters for the first time as part of a joint patrol with Russia.

Trump argues that the increasing influence of Moscow and Beijing in the region makes U.S. control over Greenland a strategic necessity. “You don’t even need binoculars. You look outside, you have Chinese ships all over the place. You have Russian ships all over the place. We’re not letting that happen,” he declared in January.

Russian submarines

Pram Gad believes that “the U.S. is concerned that, in the event of a conflict, Russia could destroy Pituffik’s radars and infiltrate fighter jets and submarines along Greenland’s east coast undetected.” The Danish researcher adds that Washington has spent the past decade pressuring Copenhagen to install radars capable of detecting submarines.

The Northern Fleet, based in the Russian city of Murmansk, is the largest fleet north of the Arctic Circle and operates at least 10 of Russia’s 16 strategic submarines — vessels designed to carry and launch intercontinental ballistic missiles with thermonuclear warheads. Jeppe Strandsbjerg, a researcher at the University of Greenland’s Center for Foreign and Security Policy, notes that “Denmark has been slower to react to these risks than the U.S. would have liked.”

However, both Pram Gad and Strandsbjerg believe that Trump’s claims regarding Beijing’s influence on the Danish Arctic island are clearly exaggerated. “China tried for years to get involved in various projects in Greenland, but it has essentially given up; it has realized that the U.S. and Denmark will never allow it,” says Strandsbjerg.

In a further sign that Trump’s Greenland ambitions are serious, the president outlined his intentions last Friday at the White House to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

“I think it’ll [annexation] happen,” said Trump. “I’m sitting with a man that could be very instrumental. You know, Mark, we need that for international security. We have a lot of our favorite players [Chinese and Russian] cruising around the coast. And we have to be careful.”

Rutte replied: “When it comes to Greenland, yes or not joining the U.S., I would leave that outside, for me, this discussion, because I don’t want to drag NATO into that.” The NATO secretary-general, however, added that Trump is “totally right” about the risks posed by China and Russia in the region.

Strandsbjerg explains that “the U.S.’ historical interest in Greenland is not without logic, but Trump’s attitude — and that of those around him — elevates the issue to a new level.”

The researcher from the University of Greenland criticizes the U.S. consulate in Nuuk for responding to the president’s threats on social media and for attempting, unsuccessfully, to convene a meeting with representatives from the main political parties just days before Greenland’s parliamentary elections last week, to discuss the island’s future relationship with the world’s leading power.

On Saturday, hundreds of Greenlandic citizens, including Jens-Frederik Nielsen, leader of the winning Liberal Party, and acting Prime Minister Múte Egede, demonstrated in front of the U.S. consulate in Nuuk, braving temperatures nearing minus 10 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit), to protest Trump’s plans under the slogan “Enough is enough!”

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