Trump’s popularity in his first quarter is lower than that of any other president

Americans do not approve of Donald Trump’s performance. The Republican is the most polarizing figure in U.S. politics in recent decades. He has returned to power with a thirst for vengeance, embarked on an authoritarian drift with abuses of power, and plunged the country into a trade war that is crippling the economy and threatening to drive up prices.

Three months after his return to the White House, his approval rating stands at 45%, according to a Gallup poll. This is the lowest approval rating for any president since the end of World War II, with one exception: Trump’s own first quarter in his first term (2017-2021), when his approval rating was 41%.

The average approval rating for the first quarter of all presidents elected between 1952 and 2020 is 60%, according to Gallup. John F. Kennedy (1961) and Dwight Eisenhower (1952) recorded the highest first-quarter ratings, with 74% and 71%, respectively, while Jimmy Carter, Barack Obama, and Ronald Reagan received ratings between 60% and 69%. George W. Bush, George H. W. Bush, Joe Biden, and Bill Clinton recorded similar approval ratings, between 55% and 58%, in their first quarters. Trump is the only president to have average approval ratings below 50% during the first quarter of his term, and he has done so twice: as the 45th president and now as the 47th.

However, opinions on Trump are sharply divided along party lines. While 90% of Republicans approve of the president’s performance, only 4% of Democrats do. Among independent voters, who are not affiliated with either of the two major parties, the current 37% approval rating has remained stable since February, but it is nine percentage points lower than the rating Trump received at the time of his inauguration.

The latest survey was conducted during a period of economic turmoil following Trump’s April 2 announcement of high tariffs on all countries. This announcement triggered a sharp drop in the stock market, Treasury bonds, and the dollar.

Despite Trump’s decision to temporarily pause some tariffs by Trump on April 9 and the easing of other conditions since then, market instability has persisted. Some economists have warned of the risk of a recession, citing the collapse in consumer confidence, the rise in inflation expectations, market volatility, and signs of slowing growth.

In this context, 44% of U.S. adults say they are confident that Trump will recommend or do what’s right for the economy, including 30% with a “great deal of confidence” and 14% with “a fair amount.” Meanwhile, 55% of Americans indicate they have either “only a little” confidence in the president (11%) or “almost none” (44%) regarding the economy.

Again, party patterns are repeated in this issue. Trump has a high level of support within his party, as 89% of Republicans say they have high (67%) or moderate (22%) confidence in him on economic matters, compared to 37% of independents and 8% of Democrats.

Gallup has tracked public confidence in the economic management of U.S. presidents each year since George W. Bush took office in 2001. Bush, Obama, and Biden all began their terms with confidence from more than 50% of the public in their handling of the economy, while Trump had a 48% approval rating in the first year of his first term. His current approval rating of 44% is similar to the 46% average from his first term.

The highest economic confidence ratings were recorded for George W. Bush in 2002 and Obama in 2009 (73% and 71%, respectively). The lowest economic management scores were recorded for Bush in 2008 (34%) during the Great Recession, and for Biden in 2023 (35%), when high inflation was still affecting the United States. In Biden’s case, inflation caused his confidence rating to plummet from 57% in his first year in office.

Despite his low popularity, Trump has a higher approval rating than Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress, and in economic matters, he has more support than the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, whom Trump has targeted as a scapegoat for the chaos caused by his erratic economic and trade policies. Thirty-seven percent of Americans have a lot or some confidence in Powell, compared to 50% who have little or no confidence in him. Interestingly, the Federal Reserve Chairman has more confidence among Republicans (43%) than among Democrats (37%) or independents (32%).

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