An X-ray of the 14 million undocumented migrants in the US: More temporary permits, fewer Mexicans

If Donald Trump is to be believed, there are 20 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. If we look at official data, the latest estimates indicate that in 2022 there were 11 million unauthorized foreigners living in the U.S. Experts, however, have always maintained that the figure is higher, although not as high as the president’s unfounded exaggeration. A recent report by the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) puts the total at 13.7 million until mid-2023, which coincides with the estimates of other demographers who claim that there are currently about 14 million undocumented people residing in the country. The Republican president has taken advantage of this reality and twisted it to justify his immigration agenda, which includes criminalizing all immigrants, detaining them and deporting them as soon as possible. But who are these people? How did they enter the country? Where do they come from? This is an X-ray of America’s undocumented migrants.

Under Joe Biden’s term in office, between 2019 and 2023, the unauthorized immigrant population grew by three million, or an average of 6% per year. The country had not seen such significant yearly increases since the early 2000s, according to the MPI report. Between 2000 and 2007, the number of undocumented immigrants grew from eight million to 12.3 million, a figure that fell after the 2008 crisis until 2010 and then remained stable for years at around 11 million.

This stability occurred because entries were continually offset by exits. For example, between 2010 and 2019, MPI estimates that approximately 5.9 million people crossed a border illegally or overstayed a visa, while 5.7 million unauthorized immigrants died, emigrated, or, less commonly, obtained legal status—resulting in a net increase of just 200,000 over that period.

That was until the rise in numbers seen since 2019. The growth is due in part to the increase in the number of irregular border crossings under the Biden administration. During the first three years of his administration, the number of immigrants entering the country without permission soared to historic levels.

The MPI explains that this is due to two factors. On the one hand, the dynamics of immigration changed dramatically starting in 2021, when the U.S. economy recovered more quickly and fully from the pandemic-induced recession than much of the rest of the world and employment opportunities in the United States increased rapidly. Therefore, more migrants from Latin American countries, especially those where violence, insecurity and lack of opportunities were the norm and still are, decided to leave for the United States.

On the other hand, the surge in arrivals eventually overwhelmed “an overtaxed U.S. migration management system.” Immigration authorities were unable to cope with so many arrivals due to “huge backlogs in immigration courts,” “insufficient U.S. government capacity to detain and deport migrants of diverse nationalities,” and “overall limited resources.”

In addition, the former Democratic president allowed the entry of hundreds of thousands of people through the humanitarian parole route, and through the use of the CBP One application. Although these people arrived with authorization to be in the country, entities such as the MPI consider them undocumented because their status is temporary and discretionary and does not offer a direct path to permanent residence. In fact, the Trump Administration has said that it will revoke the parole of more than half a million people who received it under the Biden Administration, which exposes them to deportation. And CBP One ceased to exist in the first minutes of the Republican presidency.

The Biden administration’s decision to create the parole program for immigrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela also spurred a surge in what MPI calls the “twilight population”—individuals who are in the country on temporary status that offers them short-term relief from deportation and access to work authorization. In addition to humanitarian parole recipients, this category also includes asylum seekers and holders of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) or Temporary Protected Status (TPS).

As of mid-2023, as many as four million people — or 29% of the total unauthorized population — had one of these liminal statuses, according to MPI estimates. Though the researchers note that “given that many people hold multiple forms of twilight status at once [ for example, parolees who applied for TPS or DACA holders who sought asylum] it is difficult to know exactly how many of the 13.7 million unauthorized immigrants in 2023 had one or more temporary protections.”

As for the origin of the nearly 14 million irregular immigrants, Mexico remains the main country of origin, but increasingly less so. In 2023, Mexicans accounted for 40% of all undocumented immigrants in the country, compared to 62% in 2010. In contrast, during the same period, the proportion of Guatemalan immigrants rose from 5% to 10% of the total, the largest increase of all nationalities.

Overall, in 2023, Latin American and Caribbean immigrants combined accounted for 84% of all unauthorized immigrants. After Mexico and Guatemala, the top five countries of origin for the unauthorized immigrant population were Honduras, El Salvador, Venezuela, Colombia and the Philippines.

How many of these people will be able to stay in the country under Trump remains to be seen. The Republican president has not only ended asylum, parole and the CBP One application, but he also ended TPS, and advocates for the migrant community fear that DACA holders, the so-called Dreamers, will become the next target of the Administration. No one is safe.

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