Trump’s expansionist threats herald a stormy relationship between the US and its allies

It is no longer just outbursts. Donald Trump has gone a step further and has moved on to threats: the use of military pressure against Greenland, a territory that belongs to a European and NATO partner, Denmark. An economic boycott against Canada. A Gulf of Mexico converted, by decree, into the “Gulf of America.” Economic and military obstacles to Panama to force it to return the canal that Washington handed over under the agreements reached during Jimmy Carter’s presidency (1977-1981).

These are some of the perspectives that Trump has raised before the start of his presidential term on January 20. The president-elect offered a preview in a chaotic address on Tuesday at his Mar-a-Lago mansion in Florida that was part rambling soliloquy and part news conference, and which has increased the anxiety of European allies about the direction of U.S. policy in the next four years and the style of its diplomacy. There are also concerns about the future of Euro-Atlantic relations ― which reached a high point with the Joe Biden administration on issues such as Russia’s war against Ukraine ― and whether these relations could deteriorate, rewriting the global geopolitical scenario at at an especially delicate moment.

In his speech, Trump outlined a foreign policy of expansionism in the Americas and confrontation with Europe. He threatened Canada, which he believes should be an American state, with tariffs and economic pressure, and attacked Mexico, “controlled by the cartels.” He promised that “all hell will break out” if the hostages in Gaza are not released by the time he takes office. And, above all, he refused to rule out using economic or military coercion for what he declared to be two objectives necessary for national security: control of the Panama Canal, where he believes China is making inroads, and the annexation of Greenland, an island four times the size of Spain, rich in rare minerals and in a privileged position in the Arctic to rival Russia and China.

He had previously expressed these positions, but since his election victory in November they have become a recurring theme in his public addresses. And he repeated them again, mockingly, on his social network, Truth, hours after his appearance, when he published two maps in which Canada showed up as U.S. territory.

During the first weeks of the presidential transition, such statements sounded like little more than bravado. But with 10 days to go before his inauguration, they are beginning to sound much more serious, even if they only turn out to be, as some analysts suggest, a tactic to open a negotiation from a position of strength.

The European Union and NATO’s European allies are nervously awaiting the official return of Trump, who has promised to raise tariffs on European products and has called for increased defense spending, threatening to withdraw protection from those who do not comply. But his rhetoric about Greenland, which for 600 years has been part of the Kingdom of Denmark ― a EU country and NATO member and therefore an ally of the U.S. ― goes beyond anything seen so far.

“Trump’s position is very worrisome,” said an alarmed senior European source who asked to remain anonymous in order to speak freely about a very delicate issue in Brussels, which is preparing to negotiate a deal with the new Administration to avoid a trade escalation. “It is worrisome not only because of the future outlook and whether he will act on Greenland or not, but also because it represents yet another form of interference that could shake relations between Europe and the U.S.,” he said.

The concern about his foreign policy plans is now compounded by an added factor that was not present during his first term in office (2017-2021): the hostile comments being uttered by his great economic and political partner, Elon Musk. The tech oligarch, through his social media platform X, has already meddled with the domestic politics of allies such as the United Kingdom and Germany, criticizing the government in London and showing support for Germany’s far-right AfD. To this must be added criticism by the owner of another tech firm, Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, who, in announcing an end to its fact-checking policy, accused the EU of censorship. “Europe has an ever increasing number of laws institutionalising censorship and making it difficult to build anything innovative there,” he said in a speech on Tuesday.

Warnings of non-interference

For now, allied countries have reacted publicly with warnings of non-interference, although they have been careful not to anger the volatile president-elect, so as not to make matters worse. Germany and France have warned the Republican about the inviolability of borders. On Tuesday, the outgoing prime minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, responded to the president-elect with messages in English and French on X, the old Twitter, saying there “isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States.”

In Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum tried to dismiss the issue with a media appearance on Wednesday that blended diplomacy and sarcasm. The head of state said that her country will collaborate with the Trump administration, but she added that the inviolability of borders that the Republican has demanded is also binding on the incoming government in Washington. Regarding claims that the country is controlled by drug cartels, she responded: “I think President Trump was misinformed… In Mexico, the people govern.”

Regarding threats to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico, the Mexican leader suggested reviving the old official name of the northern territories, included in the Apatzingán Constitution, and parodied Trump’s own statements: “We’re going to call it Mexican America, which has a beautiful ring, doesn’t it?” For his part, Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino refused to respond to the statements of the president-elect.

In Washington, Trump’s words have been welcomed by Republican lawmakers. Representatives of the MAGA movement, such as Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor-Greene, one of his most devoted fans, have announced that they are preparing to draft a bill to change the name of the gulf.

Florida Senator Rick Scott, also from the conservative wing of the party, said on Fox News that “it would be a great strategic asset, Greenland would be, for our defense.” Regarding the canal, he added: “We built it, we paid for it. And so they need to treat us fairly.” Asked if the president-elect’s statements about resorting to military force for territorial gains is merely a negotiating strategy, he said: “I don’t know what he means… but I’m glad Trump is trying to make America great again.”

“From the point of view of transatlantic cohesion, these remarks by Trump are not helpful,” says Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund. “The United States is not about to withdraw from NATO, but the alliance’s policy is clearly set for a difficult path, and not only when it comes to defense spending,” the expert predicts. “The offer to buy Greenland can be considered eccentric. The economic and military threats in connection with this issue are a completely different matter,” Lesser concludes.

Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition