US pressures Ukraine to cede Crimea and other occupied regions to Russia

The United States’ plans, in the form of a “final offer” to end the war in Ukraine, involve Kyiv giving up the Crimean peninsula, illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014, and the remaining territories in four other eastern and southern regions over which the Kremlin has been gaining control since the major invasion unleashed in February 2022. All this in exchange for Russia freezing the fighting on the front lines. Furthermore, in a climate of increasing pressure on Kyiv, Washington seeks to force Ukraine to accept not joining NATO — although it will not demand it relinquishes its goal of European Union membership — while lifting the sanctions imposed on Russia. It would be unconstitutional to give up Crimea, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has stated.

Donald Trump — who, as in the Middle East conflict, also demands his share of the pie — also plans to bring the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, under his control, along with the exploitation of the Ukrainian subsoil, in return for the support offered by Washington during the conflict.

Several U.S. media outlets, such as Axios and The Washington Post, had advanced this proposal, summarized in a one-page document that the United States presented as Trump’s “final offer” and which official Ukrainian sources consider biased towards Russian positions, according to Axios. Recognition of the Russian presence in Crimea would be de jure and in the rest of the occupied regions, de facto. The U.S. president’s plan — summarized in seven points — offers Ukraine “a solid security guarantee” in the face of Russian gains, Axios adds, although it omits the details of how to achieve it: the Kremlin’s evacuation of the areas of the northeastern Kharkiv region that it controls; free movement across the Dnipro River, the country’s main waterway; as well as compensation and aid for reconstruction.

The U.S. administration had circulated this seven-point document before Wednesday, when a new round of negotiations on a possible ceasefire was scheduled to take place in London. The UK government has finally decided to downgrade the document to a “technical level” after both U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, announced the cancellation of their visits to the English capital. The idea that the London meeting would not achieve substantive progress weighed heavily on Rubio’s decision to cancel his trip.

A group of senior German, French, American, Ukrainian, and British officials will continue to advance technical issues, but this will be done in a meeting closed to the media. The meetings in the British capital are a continuation of those held last week in Paris, where Ukrainian representatives heard the general outlines of Washington’s proposal. Washington had already threatened in the French capital to withdraw from the negotiation process if there is no progress soon.

The reality is that time is running out for Ukraine, both on the battlefield and in the diplomatic sphere, as Russia strengthens its positions in around 20% of Ukraine’s approximately 233,000 square miles of territory, which, in addition to the Crimean peninsula, includes much of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in the east and Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in the south. Zelenskiy stated on Tuesday that the country’s Constitution prohibits granting any recognition to Moscow over Crimea. He also suggests that what the U.S. is proposing serves to encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin to continue the war and his expansionist ambitions.

As for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant facilities, occupied by Russian troops since the early days of the war, Washington plans to continue considering them Ukrainian territory, even though they will come under its control and can supply electricity to both Russia and Ukraine. Not far from the plant, although on the opposite bank of the Dnipro, a Russian bombing of a bus took place this Wednesday, leaving at least nine dead — seven women and two men — and nearly 50 injured, according to local authorities. The attack was carried out using a drone in the town of Marhaset, in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

Trump’s final offer, as reported by Axios, also highlights his interest in Ukraine’s subsoil. Last week, the U.S. and Ukraine signed a preliminary agreement for the exploitation of minerals, rare earths, and other resources, including gas and oil. This has been one of the quid pro quos sought by the Trump administration throughout negotiations with Zelenskiy to compensate for its aid in the face of the Russian offensive. While the details of the final agreement are still unknown — Trump hopes it will be rubber-stamped this Thursday — the initial idea was the creation of a common fund in which Ukraine would contribute 50% of revenue from the future exploitation of all state-owned natural resources. Washington estimates that Kyiv has benefited from aid during the Russian invasion worth around $300 billion.

Low profile

Following the cancellation of the visits of Rubio and Witkoff, who plans to travel to Russia this week, the U.S. delegation in London is keeping a low profile. Rubio held a telephone conversation Tuesday with his British counterpart, David Lammy, in which he announced his decision to withdraw from the trip to London, although he softened his announcement by expressing his desire for “substantive and good technical meetings.” Shortly after, he announced on X that he would travel to London in the coming months.

In addition to the British representatives, the envoys from France and Germany who are attending the meeting will likely try to defend Ukraine’s rights against Russian aggression and, at the same time, act as a counterweight to U.S. plans. From Kyiv, the head of the presidential office, Andriy Yermak, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, and Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha have arrived in London.

“Despite everything, we will work for peace,” Yermak said upon arriving in London via the social network Telegram. “The path to peace is not easy, but Ukraine has been and remains committed to peaceful efforts,” he added, noting that they will discuss ways to achieve a “full and unconditional” ceasefire as the first step toward a definitive end to the conflict.

On March 11, during a meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, with Ukrainian and Russian representatives, the U.S. team proposed a 30-day cessation of hostilities. Kyiv accepted the offer, but Putin did not, making his support conditional on suspending both international assistance to the Ukrainian army and the mobilization and training of new troops.

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