Hamas resists in Gaza with 20,000 fighters, despite losing top leaders

Hamas remains defiant against one of the world’s most powerful armies, despite Israel successfully decapitating its political, military, and police leadership in the more than 15 months of war. The assassination of its political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Iran last July was followed by the death of Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas’ armed wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, in Gaza the same month. In October, Yahya Sinwar, the militia’s military chief, was killed in Rafah, in the south of the Gaza Strip. Last week, the head of the Gaza police, Mahmoud Salah, and his aide were also killed. Nevertheless, the Israeli army has repeatedly been forced to engage in areas it had previously considered cleared. Hamas still holds about a hundred of the 251 hostages it took on October 7, 2023, although Israeli authorities estimate that only around 70 are still alive.

The group has been holding indirect ceasefire negotiations with Israel in Doha, mediated by Qatar and Egypt. While Israel seeks the return of all hostages in exchange for a halt to hostilities, Hamas is demanding the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. To bolster its position, Hamas maintains a force of around 20,000 militants and still has a significant portion of its extensive tunnel network intact.

Prior to the Hamas attacks on October 7, the CIA estimated the group had between 25,000 and 30,000 fighters, though these figures were never officially confirmed by Hamas. Last week, senior Israeli officials informed the parliamentary foreign affairs and defense committee that the number of militants currently operating in Gaza is between 20,000 and 23,000. Of these, approximately 9,000 are members of Hamas, with the remainder belonging to other groups, such as Islamic Jihad. Israel believes that nearly half of these militants are well-organized.

Hugh Lovatt, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), co-authored a study in December on Hamas’ military situation. In the paper, Lovatt noted that the group has acknowledged losing between 6,000 and 7,000 members from both its armed and civilian wings. These figures align with those provided by Israel, however, Lovatt cautioned: “Any Israeli celebrations may be misplaced.”

In an exchange of emails and phone messages, Lovatt explained that despite significant casualties, Hamas still retains its military and political leadership. It continues to operate a political office in Doha. Following the deaths of Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar, Hamas has adopted a temporary political leadership structure with five members, in an effort to mitigate the impact of future Israeli assassinations. As for its military leadership, according to Lovatt, the group is now led by Mohammed Sinwar, Yahya Sinwar’s brother.

The Gaza Tunnels

“Hamas members have stated in several interviews that the group retains a considerable part of its tunnel infrastructure and has been able to rebuild parts destroyed by Israel,” Lovatt added. Meanwhile, Israeli professor Eitan Shamir, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University, noted on the Media Line website that 40% of Hamas’ tunnels are still operational: “hundreds of kilometers of tunnels the Israeli intelligence was not aware of.”

Raphael Cohen, a Middle East researcher at the RAND think tank, said in a video conference from Washington that it is quite possible that Hamas has that many tunnels: “I spoke to military personnel in the Gaza Strip at the end of November. They estimated that 50% of the tunnels were operational. Some of them have since been blown up. But they are superimposed on one another. That makes it very difficult to completely neutralize them.”

Lovatt criticizes the Israeli government for consistently blocking diplomatic efforts toward a ceasefire and for lacking a clear plan for post-war scenarios. He does, however, acknowledge that Israel’s estimates of the number of fighters in Gaza are likely accurate, although he argues that the number of Hamas fighters killed has often been overstated.

“Israel categorizes as ‘members of Hamas’ not only those in the armed group [Al-Qassam Brigades] but also individuals in its political wing and those involved in Gaza’s civilian government [ministries, municipalities, and police]. However, many of these individuals are not actually members of Hamas,” says Lovatt.

Militiamen in “hibernation mode”

Lovatt believes that many of the al-Qassam militants are waiting out the Israeli offensive in “hibernation mode,” “hiding in abandoned buildings and tunnels or escaping with fleeing civilians.” “In addition,” he continues, “Hamas is activating its reserve force, members with basic military training. They are also recruiting new members, exploiting widespread Gazan anger and desire for revenge against Israel.”

Speaking to EL PAÍS by phone, Yoni Ben Menachem, a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA), explains that Israeli security officials say Hamas has recruited approximately 4,000 new fighters over the past month. Based on information from Israeli sources, Ben Menachem says the money for recruiting so many fighters comes from “the sale of humanitarian aid packages, which Hamas forcibly confiscates and resells in Gaza markets.” Lovatt says that Israel has regularly attacked police officers working to protect humanitarian aid trucks. And that soldiers do not intervene when gangs loot humanitarian trucks.

Ben Menachem says the new recruits could allow Hamas to continue its resistance in the north of the Gaza Strip, “led by Ezedin Haddad, the commander of Hamas’ North Brigade.” He adds that if the negotiations in Doha fail, his security sources believe the Israeli government will order the army “to occupy Gaza City completely and evacuate its residents to the south.” Ninety percent of Gaza’s 2.2 million inhabitants have already been forced to evacuate at least once, according to the United Nations.

Popular support in Gaza

Cohen believes that while support for Hamas has decreased following over 45,000 deaths in Gaza and the desperate humanitarian crisis, “this does not necessarily translate into a more cooperative attitude towards the Israelis,” something that, according to the expert, “Israel should take into account.”

Lovatt notes that there is “frustration and anger against Hamas in Gaza,” particularly “over Sinwar’s miscalculation of Israel’s response.” But he clarifies that “historically,” support for Hamas has always tended to fluctuate between 30 and 40%. “It never had majority support, but it remains the most popular Palestinian political/armed group in Gaza. And popular anger against Hamas is dwarfed by popular anger against Israel. Israel is still blamed, even when Hamas is criticized,” he continues.

Regarding Hamas’ ability to sustain its guerrilla war efforts, Cohen suggests that it depends on how one defines “holding out.” “The Taliban fought for 20 years, although it is true that they had the support of Pakistan. Hamas could keep up its attacks for a long time, even though it does not have the capacity for large-scale offensives,” he concludes.

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