Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko: ‘We have enough funds and weapons to withstand at least during the first half of 2025’

Donald Trump’s return to power is shaping up to be a real geopolitical shock. Everyone is trying to predict the changes that will occur, to influence them, to prepare for the consequences. Few countries are more closely scrutinizing Washington’s horizon, on which its future depends, than Ukraine. Sergii Marchenko, 43, Ukraine’s finance minister since 2020, shares his views on the state of the war and prospects for the coming year in an interview given at the Grand Continent Summit conference, organized by the pan-European magazine of the same name last week in Saint-Vincent, Italy. During the conversation, the minister expresses his conviction that Ukraine has “enough funds and weapons to withstand at least during the first half of 2025”, even if Washington’s aid is cut off.

Question: What will happen if the U.S. stops providing aid to Ukraine? Joe Biden is using up the last package approved by Congress and it is hard to believe that Trump will ask for a new one. How serious is this challenge to your defense? Could it lead to a collapse of your defensive capability?

Answer. Let’s split this question into different dimensions. First, is it a problem? It could be a problem, yes. Is it a challenge? Yes. So what should we do to deal with this challenge? We should have a plan to create the necessary conditions for cooperation with the new administration. It’s in the natural interest of Ukraine to create good trust for cooperation. I believe it should be a priority strategy for Ukraine and for Europe as well. We want to build a good relationship. Of course, the attitude can change. And to tackle this uncertainty we should use the time properly and be able to negotiate with the new administration. It’s strategy number one.

Q. And number two?

A. We need time. We need time to withstand Russian aggression while we are holding these talks with our American colleagues. I believe that we have enough funds, enough weapons, missiles and artillery shells to be able to withstand at least during the first half of 2025. We will provide sufficient budget appropriation for purchasing necessary ammunition and military equipment in 2025. We are now receiving the necessary weapons from the United States. This means that at least during the first half of the year and beyond, we will be well equipped to withstand this aggression. Ukraine should use this time very wisely to conduct the necessary negotiations with our key allies in the United States.

Q. President Zelenskiy has said that he wants 2025 to be the year of a negotiated, fair peace. What kind of peace does his government envision in the current circumstances? What kind of guarantees will there be for Ukraine’s long-term stability if NATO integration does not materialize?

A. It is a good question. Any security guarantees for Ukraine should be significant and meaningful, based on some particular elements. We already have the Budapest Memorandum and it did not serve any purpose in terms of Ukraine’s security. That’s why there should be very clear security guarantees for Ukraine. And right now I can’t imagine these guarantees without NATO. It’s impossible. The alternative to such a guarantee is a modern and strong Ukrainian army. This is the only way for us to survive. Ukraine needs the capabilities to resist Russian aggression another day, another year, and in the years to come. And it’s impossible for us to maintain such a strong army using only our own resources. We now spend more than 26% of our GDP on the military campaign. This, of course, is because we are in the middle of a war. We have suffered many losses, we need to replenish equipment. After the full-scale war, very substantial figures will be needed to deter Russia from even thinking about a possible aggression against Ukraine. We need access to modern missiles and air defense systems to protect our country because in the future there could be attacks on our infrastructure by Russia. I am talking from my position, from the Ministry of Finance. I am not involved in high-level discussions related to this matter. In any case, Ukraine must have a strong army, which can withstand aggression. Very strong in order to be able to deter Putin from attacking again.

Q. In recent months, Russia has been making progress on the ground. How serious is the situation on the frontlines?

A. There was an expectation in 2023. If Ukraine had received the necessary supplies of ammunition and weapons, and if we had received trained new brigades, these would have helped the Ukrainian Armed Forces to push Russian troops out of Ukrainian territory. This was the general expectation in 2023, and the Armed Forces began a counteroffensive. But we realized that it is impossible to do this using traditional tactics on ground covered with minefields and concrete defensivee structures such as dragon’s teeth. If you try to do so, the cost in human lives is so tremendous that you start to question the logic of such an offensive. Modern, unconventional military and diplomatic solutions must be applied to liberate our territories. That is why Ukraine decided to do it in a different way than what had been traditionally accepted. We are trying to preserve our capacity to defend ourselves. Starting from the end of 2023 and throughout 2024, our key element is defense. In November, the number of troops lost by Russia was a record. But they are still trying to slowly advance. We are doing everything possible to stop them. The Ukrainian government spends a large part of its budget on building fortifications. In 2024, about $1 billion was allocated to finance fortifications.

Q. What are the key elements of the war right now?

A. The way the war looks today is different compared to last year. There are many advantages to using drones. The government’s plan for 2024 is to produce more than a million drones inside Ukraine. Typical modern warfare has two key dimensions: technological competition and people fighting using that technology. It’s new warfare and we’re trying to combine different types of operational capabilities. The key demand from our Ministry of Defense to the Ministry of Finance right now is to provide an additional appropriation to be able to purchase the necessary drones. Drones are their number one request.

Q. How would you describe the mood of the population? There are polls that indicate changes in attitudes regarding the prospect of negotiations.

A. It has been almost three years of Russia’s large-scale aggression against Ukraine. It’s not easy. Every day Ukrainians expect another drone or missile attack. In November, there were almost 3,000 drone attacks against Ukraine. This is the highest level on record and it is normal to feel tired, frustrated, desperate: people are not robots. But even if we are getting tired, it does not mean that we are ready to surrender. We are not ready to accept any unfair peace for Ukraine.

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