Israel’s military prepares the ground for possible invasion of Lebanon

The Israeli army is preparing the ground for a possible invasion of Lebanon. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief Gen. Herzi Halevi told troops that Wednesday’s massive strikes on Hezbollah were to “prepare the ground for your possible entry [into Lebanon] and to continue degrading Hezbollah.” The message follows several days of speculation about whether Israel would launch a ground incursion into southern Lebanon to try to combat the militia. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declined to give details of his plans, but said in a video message: “We are dealing blows to Hezbollah that it could never imagine; we are doing it by force and with intelligence.”

Hours earlier, the IDF announced the mobilization of several brigades in the north of the country, after carrying out new strikes on Lebanon in response to Hezbollah’s unprecedented attack. On Wednesday, Hezbollah fired a ballistic missile against the Tel Aviv area, the first recognized by both sides in almost a year of clashes. The Shiite militia said the target of the rocket was the headquarters of Mossad, Israel’s notorious foreign secret services, which is located on the outskirts of the city. Anti-aircraft sirens sounded in Tel Aviv, the economic heart of Israel, warning the population of the danger.

For days now, both the Israeli government and military commanders have discussed a possible invasion of Lebanon. The deployment of brigades to northern Israel “will enable the continuation of combat against the Hezbollah terrorist organization, the defense of the state of Israel, and create the conditions to enable residents of northern Israel to return to their homes,” officials with the IDF said in a statement.

On Wednesday afternoon, there was no sign of troop movement on the roads in the northwesternmost tip of Israel, along the Mediterranean coast and Kibbutz Rosh Hanikra, as verified by EL PAÍS. Adi, a 40-year-old reservist, was killing time with two other soldiers at a checkpoint a few meters from the border.

“All options are on the table. It is no secret that many troops are being mobilized throughout the country,” said Doron Speilman, military spokesman, in the Kibbutz Saar, a few miles from the border — one of the areas struck by the Shiite militia on Wednesday. “We’ll see what happens in the coming days,” he added, without giving details of a possible invasion into Lebanon.

“The army is fully striking what we consider to be an imminent threat against the state of Israel. That is the missiles and rockets that Hezbollah has ready in rooms and attics, as well as Hezbollah’s leadership, which we are wiping out,” said Speilman, amid the damage caused by Hezbollah’s rockets. “If Hezbollah withdraws towards the Litani River, this is over,” he added, in reference to the riverbed, a few miles upstream of the border. Under U.N. resolution 1701, the Shiite group is not allowed to be deployed on the southern bank of the river.

Half a million people displaced

Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib on Wednesday put a figure on the number of people who have fled (in cars, on motorbikes, on foot, etc.) from Israel’s massive air strikes. “We had 110,000 displaced people and now this figure is approaching half a million,” said the minister at an event organized by the think-tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

It is a mass exodus — in a country home only to 3.5 million inhabitants — with people fleeing to the homes of relatives (or strangers), to hotels, or to schools converted into shelters. Hundreds of Syrian refugees are also returning to their country, even though it remains at war. Israel’s strikes, which began on Monday, have killed nearly 600 people and wounded more than 1,800. Such figures in such a short period of time is unprecedented: they haven’t been seen since the end of the civil war in 1990.

Hezbollah said that the missile launched at the Mossad headquarters was revenge for the attack that involved the near-simultaneous remote detonation of thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies that the party-militia had distributed among its members. Israel has not explicitly acknowledged the operation, but has hinted, in statements by several leaders, including Netanyahu, that it was the work of Mossad.

On Wednesday morning alone, Hezbollah launched some 40 rockets at different regions of Israel. The ground-to-ground rocket aimed at Tel Aviv was intercepted by Israel’s anti-missile defense system, according to the IDF, which has not changed its instructions to the civilian population in the central area, nor cancelled school classes. No personal or material damage was reported.

It is the first time in almost a year of fighting that Hezbollah has hit such a target with one of its rockets, the Israeli military said. The militia claimed a similar attack last month, in retaliation for the assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, but the Israeli government dismissed this claim as propaganda. Shortly after the strike on Tel Aviv, the IDF announced “extensive bombings” in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, as it had done in the previous two days. For the first time, it attacked Maaysrah, in the predominantly Christian Keserwan region.

The day provided further evidence of the risks of the conflict spreading throughout the region. Pro-Iran militias in Iraq announced the launch of a drone against the Golan Heights, a Syrian territory occupied by Israel since the Six-Day War in 1967. When the sirens sounded there, Israeli fighter planes shot down the drone south of the Sea of Galilee, the IDF said. In the area around Haifa, which is home to Israel’s main port in the northwest, just 18 miles from the border with Lebanon, fighter planes were a constant presence, as on previous days-

Multi-tiered air defense system

Hezbollah has been expanding the radius of its missile launches, as the Israel air forces strikes its positions with unprecedented intensity. The Jewish state is defended by a multi-tiered air defense system, which on Wednesday thwarted Hezbollah’s plan to strike at the heart of one of the best protected institutions. Israeli military sources say that it is around 90% effective, and it has strong support from Israel’s main ally, the United States.

The lowest tier, in terms of altitude, is the Iron Dome, which has been in operation since 2011. It intercepts short-range rockets and artillery, such as those frequently fired by Hamas and Islamic Jihad from Gaza, or Hezbollah from southern Lebanon. The mid-tier is the so-called David’s Sling, which has been in operation since 2017 and is designed to stop ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as medium- and long-range rockets. This is what the IDF is believed to have activated to thwart Hezbollah’s attack on Wednesday. The top tier is the Arrow system, which has also been in operation since 2017. It intercepts missiles that fly outside the atmosphere.

The speculated incursion of ground troops into Lebanon would seek to push back the Hezbollah militiamen stationed in the border area from where they carry out frequent attacks on the south of Israel. Netanyahu insisted that Israel will do everything necessary to ensure that the 60,000 Israeli residents evacuated from areas near the border can return home safely.

Residents gathered at the entrance to the attacked house in Kibbutz Saar on Wednesday. A group of young men chant in support of Israel’s troops and against Hezbollah to an Israeli TV channel. One of them is Ariel Bahat, 18, who lives just a few meters from where the shell landed. At his age, he knows that it will soon be his turn to join the troops, but he hesitates when asked if it is time for his country to order a ground incursion into Lebanon.

“For the time being, it’s better for them to keep hitting targets with fighter planes. We’ll see, if Hezbollah keeps attacking us if the time comes to invade,” he said. Another resident, a father of a family who did not give his name, calls for “less speculation” in the face of a possible ground operation, and “more faith.”

“This family has been very lucky. God saved them,” said Spielman, the military spokesman.

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